Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China

Study region: The northwestern region of China is designated as Xinjiang Province. Study focus: Water scarcity as a result of climate change and population growth is a global concern. Northwestern China, particularly Xinjiang (XJ), plays a vital role in safeguarding China's food security, but i...

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Main Authors: Yunyun Ban, Qiuhong Tang, Xingcai Liu, Xiaojie Li, Yijia Ren, Haoxin Deng, Gang Zhao, Yongqiang Zhang, Yongyong Zhang, Guoyong Leng
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-04-01
Series:Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000011
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author Yunyun Ban
Qiuhong Tang
Xingcai Liu
Xiaojie Li
Yijia Ren
Haoxin Deng
Gang Zhao
Yongqiang Zhang
Yongyong Zhang
Guoyong Leng
author_facet Yunyun Ban
Qiuhong Tang
Xingcai Liu
Xiaojie Li
Yijia Ren
Haoxin Deng
Gang Zhao
Yongqiang Zhang
Yongyong Zhang
Guoyong Leng
author_sort Yunyun Ban
collection DOAJ
description Study region: The northwestern region of China is designated as Xinjiang Province. Study focus: Water scarcity as a result of climate change and population growth is a global concern. Northwestern China, particularly Xinjiang (XJ), plays a vital role in safeguarding China's food security, but it is facing severe water shortages that threaten ecosystems and food security. However, it remains unclear how the compounding water stress originated from climatic and socio-economic changes impacts on food security in XJ in the future. This study investigates future water scarcity under three socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and its impacts on food crop (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) yields. The primary research results are as follows: (1) Water resources has a possibility of a significant decrease over the next six decades, while domestic and industrial water withdrawals could increase. (2) Water scarcity issue in southern XJ could be worsen in the 21st century and it is mainly due to increasing water demand. (3) In the SSP126, SSP260 and SSP585, reduction in food crop yields is −15.5 %, −22.7 %, −23.9 % under the ratio of human water appropriation (RHWA) 50 % and −0.5 %, −8.2 %, and −9.9 % under RHWA60 %. New hydrological insights for the region: (1) An optimum scenario that can balance healthy ecosystem, water and food security is RHWA70 % combined with SSP126. (2) This study highlights the links among water, socio-economics, and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs and food crop switch need to be considered in the development of XJ region adaptation strategies.
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publishDate 2025-04-01
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spelling doaj-art-62c6c9f8cbd84c5f9b5a12cd3aaa449a2025-08-20T02:56:06ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182025-04-015810217710.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102177Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern ChinaYunyun Ban0Qiuhong Tang1Xingcai Liu2Xiaojie Li3Yijia Ren4Haoxin Deng5Gang Zhao6Yongqiang Zhang7Yongyong Zhang8Guoyong Leng9Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Corresponding authors at: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Corresponding authors at: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaKey Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaStudy region: The northwestern region of China is designated as Xinjiang Province. Study focus: Water scarcity as a result of climate change and population growth is a global concern. Northwestern China, particularly Xinjiang (XJ), plays a vital role in safeguarding China's food security, but it is facing severe water shortages that threaten ecosystems and food security. However, it remains unclear how the compounding water stress originated from climatic and socio-economic changes impacts on food security in XJ in the future. This study investigates future water scarcity under three socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and its impacts on food crop (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) yields. The primary research results are as follows: (1) Water resources has a possibility of a significant decrease over the next six decades, while domestic and industrial water withdrawals could increase. (2) Water scarcity issue in southern XJ could be worsen in the 21st century and it is mainly due to increasing water demand. (3) In the SSP126, SSP260 and SSP585, reduction in food crop yields is −15.5 %, −22.7 %, −23.9 % under the ratio of human water appropriation (RHWA) 50 % and −0.5 %, −8.2 %, and −9.9 % under RHWA60 %. New hydrological insights for the region: (1) An optimum scenario that can balance healthy ecosystem, water and food security is RHWA70 % combined with SSP126. (2) This study highlights the links among water, socio-economics, and ecosystems in a changing environment and suggests that trade-offs and food crop switch need to be considered in the development of XJ region adaptation strategies.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000011Water scarcityXinjiangClimatic and socio-economic changesFood crop yield
spellingShingle Yunyun Ban
Qiuhong Tang
Xingcai Liu
Xiaojie Li
Yijia Ren
Haoxin Deng
Gang Zhao
Yongqiang Zhang
Yongyong Zhang
Guoyong Leng
Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
Water scarcity
Xinjiang
Climatic and socio-economic changes
Food crop yield
title Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
title_full Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
title_fullStr Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
title_full_unstemmed Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
title_short Intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern China
title_sort intensification of water scarcity threatens future food security in northwestern china
topic Water scarcity
Xinjiang
Climatic and socio-economic changes
Food crop yield
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581825000011
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