Urbanization and the excess mortgage risk – an optimal mortgage model

Abstract This study investigates the optimal mortgage level and examines the impact of urbanization on the risk of excessive mortgage loan in China’s housing markets. We propose a new model to theoretically derive and measure both the optimal mortgage level and the degree of urbanization across diff...

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Main Authors: Hongxia Zhang, Heeho Kim
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer Nature 2024-12-01
Series:Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-04277-7
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author Hongxia Zhang
Heeho Kim
author_facet Hongxia Zhang
Heeho Kim
author_sort Hongxia Zhang
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This study investigates the optimal mortgage level and examines the impact of urbanization on the risk of excessive mortgage loan in China’s housing markets. We propose a new model to theoretically derive and measure both the optimal mortgage level and the degree of urbanization across different regions of China. The paper tests two hypotheses: first, whether urbanization directly increases the risk of excess mortgages, and second, whether urbanization indirectly contributes to this risk through its effect on housing prices. Using a fixed-effects model for panel data analysis, the generalized method of moments (GMM), and monthly data from 25 regional provinces in China spanning from 2007 to 2019, our results provide strong evidence in support of these hypotheses. The impact of urbanization varies across regions, suggesting that distinct policy interventions may be needed for different regional housing markets.
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institution DOAJ
issn 2662-9992
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publishDate 2024-12-01
publisher Springer Nature
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series Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
spelling doaj-art-62c41d582e0b4ae5ab8c0407dec4db5d2025-08-20T02:39:34ZengSpringer NatureHumanities & Social Sciences Communications2662-99922024-12-0111111010.1057/s41599-024-04277-7Urbanization and the excess mortgage risk – an optimal mortgage modelHongxia Zhang0Heeho Kim1School of Economics, Shandong Normal UniversitySchool of Economics and Trade, Graduate School Department of International Trade, Kyungpook National UniversityAbstract This study investigates the optimal mortgage level and examines the impact of urbanization on the risk of excessive mortgage loan in China’s housing markets. We propose a new model to theoretically derive and measure both the optimal mortgage level and the degree of urbanization across different regions of China. The paper tests two hypotheses: first, whether urbanization directly increases the risk of excess mortgages, and second, whether urbanization indirectly contributes to this risk through its effect on housing prices. Using a fixed-effects model for panel data analysis, the generalized method of moments (GMM), and monthly data from 25 regional provinces in China spanning from 2007 to 2019, our results provide strong evidence in support of these hypotheses. The impact of urbanization varies across regions, suggesting that distinct policy interventions may be needed for different regional housing markets.https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-04277-7
spellingShingle Hongxia Zhang
Heeho Kim
Urbanization and the excess mortgage risk – an optimal mortgage model
Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
title Urbanization and the excess mortgage risk – an optimal mortgage model
title_full Urbanization and the excess mortgage risk – an optimal mortgage model
title_fullStr Urbanization and the excess mortgage risk – an optimal mortgage model
title_full_unstemmed Urbanization and the excess mortgage risk – an optimal mortgage model
title_short Urbanization and the excess mortgage risk – an optimal mortgage model
title_sort urbanization and the excess mortgage risk an optimal mortgage model
url https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-024-04277-7
work_keys_str_mv AT hongxiazhang urbanizationandtheexcessmortgageriskanoptimalmortgagemodel
AT heehokim urbanizationandtheexcessmortgageriskanoptimalmortgagemodel