Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change
Abstract In this study, available large ensemble datasets in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive were used to provide the first multi-variate overview of the evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries following medium-...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y |
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| author | Thomas J. Bracegirdle Thomas Caton Harrison Caroline R. Holmes Hua Lu Patrick Martineau Tony Phillips |
| author_facet | Thomas J. Bracegirdle Thomas Caton Harrison Caroline R. Holmes Hua Lu Patrick Martineau Tony Phillips |
| author_sort | Thomas J. Bracegirdle |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this study, available large ensemble datasets in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive were used to provide the first multi-variate overview of the evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries following medium-to-high radiative forcing scenarios. The results show significant differences between simulated changes in background mean climate and changes in low (10th percentile) and high (90th percentile) extreme seasons. Regional winter warming is most pronounced for cold extremes. In summer, there are more pronounced increases in high extremes in precipitation and westerly wind during the ozone hole formation period (late 20th century), affecting coastal regions and, in particular, the Antarctic Peninsula. At midlatitudes, there is a reduction in the range of summer season wind extremes. Suggested mechanisms for these differences are provided relating to sea ice retreat and westerly jet position. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-62a2f7fa96554b2fa02030ee26a8edc6 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-62a2f7fa96554b2fa02030ee26a8edc62025-08-20T02:50:05ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222024-11-017111210.1038/s41612-024-00822-yAntarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate changeThomas J. Bracegirdle0Thomas Caton Harrison1Caroline R. Holmes2Hua Lu3Patrick Martineau4Tony Phillips5British Antarctic SurveyBritish Antarctic SurveyBritish Antarctic SurveyBritish Antarctic SurveyJapan Agency for Marine–Earth Science and TechnologyBritish Antarctic SurveyAbstract In this study, available large ensemble datasets in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive were used to provide the first multi-variate overview of the evolution of extreme seasons over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during the 20th and 21st centuries following medium-to-high radiative forcing scenarios. The results show significant differences between simulated changes in background mean climate and changes in low (10th percentile) and high (90th percentile) extreme seasons. Regional winter warming is most pronounced for cold extremes. In summer, there are more pronounced increases in high extremes in precipitation and westerly wind during the ozone hole formation period (late 20th century), affecting coastal regions and, in particular, the Antarctic Peninsula. At midlatitudes, there is a reduction in the range of summer season wind extremes. Suggested mechanisms for these differences are provided relating to sea ice retreat and westerly jet position.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y |
| spellingShingle | Thomas J. Bracegirdle Thomas Caton Harrison Caroline R. Holmes Hua Lu Patrick Martineau Tony Phillips Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change |
| title_full | Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change |
| title_fullStr | Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change |
| title_short | Antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change |
| title_sort | antarctic extreme seasons under 20th and 21st century climate change |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00822-y |
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