Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany
Dynamic transmission models (DTMs) have been used to estimate various aspects of the public health impact of varicella vaccination programs. The aim of this study was to validate the predictions of a DTM—developed using the typical approach to varicella modeling—using real-world data from a country...
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2025-05-01
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| author | Iwona Żerda Tomasz Stanisz Tomasz Fundament Filip Chełmikowski Wioletta Kłębczyk Michał Pochopień Emilie Clay Samuel Aballéa Mondher Toumi |
| author_facet | Iwona Żerda Tomasz Stanisz Tomasz Fundament Filip Chełmikowski Wioletta Kłębczyk Michał Pochopień Emilie Clay Samuel Aballéa Mondher Toumi |
| author_sort | Iwona Żerda |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Dynamic transmission models (DTMs) have been used to estimate various aspects of the public health impact of varicella vaccination programs. The aim of this study was to validate the predictions of a DTM—developed using the typical approach to varicella modeling—using real-world data from a country with a long-term universal varicella vaccination (UVV) program and to assess the sensitivity of the predictions to changes in model input parameters. A compartmental, age-stratified DTM was developed using the settings corresponding to the existing UVV program in Germany. The model-predicted total number of varicella cases followed the same trend as observed in the reported data. The agreement between the simulations’ results and the data was the highest for the age group most exposed to varicella (0–5 years old), while for other age groups, a decline in accuracy was observed. Sensitivity analyses identified the input parameters having a crucial impact on the model’s long-term predictions. The results supported the reliability of the DTM for assessing the impact of varicella vaccination programs over the first decades after their introduction and provided an insight into how certain parameters and assumptions influence the model output and thus require careful evaluation in the studies of future varicella vaccination programs. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2001-6689 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Journal of Market Access & Health Policy |
| spelling | doaj-art-61b2cc73722f441fa96e317e12d852c72025-08-20T03:27:19ZengMDPI AGJournal of Market Access & Health Policy2001-66892025-05-011322010.3390/jmahp13020020Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in GermanyIwona Żerda0Tomasz Stanisz1Tomasz Fundament2Filip Chełmikowski3Wioletta Kłębczyk4Michał Pochopień5Emilie Clay6Samuel Aballéa7Mondher Toumi8Clever-Access, Wadowicka 8a, 30-415 Krakow, PolandClever-Access, Wadowicka 8a, 30-415 Krakow, PolandClever-Access, Wadowicka 8a, 30-415 Krakow, PolandClever-Access, Wadowicka 8a, 30-415 Krakow, PolandClever-Access, Wadowicka 8a, 30-415 Krakow, PolandClever-Access, Wadowicka 8a, 30-415 Krakow, PolandClever-Access, 53 Avenue Montaigne, 75008 Paris, FranceInovIntell, 3023GJ Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, The NetherlandsInovIntell, 215 rue du Faubourg St Honoré, 75008 Paris, FranceDynamic transmission models (DTMs) have been used to estimate various aspects of the public health impact of varicella vaccination programs. The aim of this study was to validate the predictions of a DTM—developed using the typical approach to varicella modeling—using real-world data from a country with a long-term universal varicella vaccination (UVV) program and to assess the sensitivity of the predictions to changes in model input parameters. A compartmental, age-stratified DTM was developed using the settings corresponding to the existing UVV program in Germany. The model-predicted total number of varicella cases followed the same trend as observed in the reported data. The agreement between the simulations’ results and the data was the highest for the age group most exposed to varicella (0–5 years old), while for other age groups, a decline in accuracy was observed. Sensitivity analyses identified the input parameters having a crucial impact on the model’s long-term predictions. The results supported the reliability of the DTM for assessing the impact of varicella vaccination programs over the first decades after their introduction and provided an insight into how certain parameters and assumptions influence the model output and thus require careful evaluation in the studies of future varicella vaccination programs.https://www.mdpi.com/2001-6689/13/2/20epidemic modelingvaccination impact modelingdynamic transmission modelinfectious disease dynamicsvaricellachickenpox |
| spellingShingle | Iwona Żerda Tomasz Stanisz Tomasz Fundament Filip Chełmikowski Wioletta Kłębczyk Michał Pochopień Emilie Clay Samuel Aballéa Mondher Toumi Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany Journal of Market Access & Health Policy epidemic modeling vaccination impact modeling dynamic transmission model infectious disease dynamics varicella chickenpox |
| title | Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany |
| title_full | Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany |
| title_fullStr | Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany |
| title_full_unstemmed | Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany |
| title_short | Validating the Predictions of a Dynamic Transmission Model Using Real-World Data from a Universal Varicella Vaccination Program in Germany |
| title_sort | validating the predictions of a dynamic transmission model using real world data from a universal varicella vaccination program in germany |
| topic | epidemic modeling vaccination impact modeling dynamic transmission model infectious disease dynamics varicella chickenpox |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2001-6689/13/2/20 |
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