Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of Earthquakes
Earthquakes cause enormous social and economic damage. Consequently, the seismic process requires regular monitoring and systematic forecasting of strong earthquakes. This study introduces an enhanced iteration of the method of the minimum area of alarm (MMAA), refined to advance earthquake forecast...
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MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/5/170 |
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| author | Valery Gitis Alexander Derendyaev |
| author_facet | Valery Gitis Alexander Derendyaev |
| author_sort | Valery Gitis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Earthquakes cause enormous social and economic damage. Consequently, the seismic process requires regular monitoring and systematic forecasting of strong earthquakes. This study introduces an enhanced iteration of the method of the minimum area of alarm (MMAA), refined to advance earthquake forecasting technology closer to its practical application. In the new version, a forecast is considered successful when all target earthquake epicenters within a specified time interval are contained within predefined alarm zones. Our updated algorithm optimizes the probability of successfully detecting earthquakes across forecast cycles and the probability for subsequent periods. A case study from the Kamchatka region demonstrates the practical application of this systematic forecasting approach. We propose that this computational technology can serve as an operational tool for generating early warnings of potential seismic hazards, and a research platform for conducting detailed investigations of precursor phenomena. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-618d5d8fef7b4db28d2a51993da0bf10 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2076-3263 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-618d5d8fef7b4db28d2a51993da0bf102025-08-20T03:14:42ZengMDPI AGGeosciences2076-32632025-05-0115517010.3390/geosciences15050170Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of EarthquakesValery Gitis0Alexander Derendyaev1Institute for Information Transmission Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoi Karetnyi ln., 19, 127051 Moscow, RussiaInstitute for Information Transmission Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Bolshoi Karetnyi ln., 19, 127051 Moscow, RussiaEarthquakes cause enormous social and economic damage. Consequently, the seismic process requires regular monitoring and systematic forecasting of strong earthquakes. This study introduces an enhanced iteration of the method of the minimum area of alarm (MMAA), refined to advance earthquake forecasting technology closer to its practical application. In the new version, a forecast is considered successful when all target earthquake epicenters within a specified time interval are contained within predefined alarm zones. Our updated algorithm optimizes the probability of successfully detecting earthquakes across forecast cycles and the probability for subsequent periods. A case study from the Kamchatka region demonstrates the practical application of this systematic forecasting approach. We propose that this computational technology can serve as an operational tool for generating early warnings of potential seismic hazards, and a research platform for conducting detailed investigations of precursor phenomena.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/5/170systematic earthquake forecastingmachine learningmethod of the minimum area of alarmforecast quality |
| spellingShingle | Valery Gitis Alexander Derendyaev Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of Earthquakes Geosciences systematic earthquake forecasting machine learning method of the minimum area of alarm forecast quality |
| title | Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of Earthquakes |
| title_full | Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of Earthquakes |
| title_fullStr | Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of Earthquakes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of Earthquakes |
| title_short | Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of Earthquakes |
| title_sort | two stage systematic forecasting of earthquakes |
| topic | systematic earthquake forecasting machine learning method of the minimum area of alarm forecast quality |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/5/170 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT valerygitis twostagesystematicforecastingofearthquakes AT alexanderderendyaev twostagesystematicforecastingofearthquakes |