Two-Stage Systematic Forecasting of Earthquakes
Earthquakes cause enormous social and economic damage. Consequently, the seismic process requires regular monitoring and systematic forecasting of strong earthquakes. This study introduces an enhanced iteration of the method of the minimum area of alarm (MMAA), refined to advance earthquake forecast...
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Geosciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/15/5/170 |
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| Summary: | Earthquakes cause enormous social and economic damage. Consequently, the seismic process requires regular monitoring and systematic forecasting of strong earthquakes. This study introduces an enhanced iteration of the method of the minimum area of alarm (MMAA), refined to advance earthquake forecasting technology closer to its practical application. In the new version, a forecast is considered successful when all target earthquake epicenters within a specified time interval are contained within predefined alarm zones. Our updated algorithm optimizes the probability of successfully detecting earthquakes across forecast cycles and the probability for subsequent periods. A case study from the Kamchatka region demonstrates the practical application of this systematic forecasting approach. We propose that this computational technology can serve as an operational tool for generating early warnings of potential seismic hazards, and a research platform for conducting detailed investigations of precursor phenomena. |
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| ISSN: | 2076-3263 |