Workforce and welfare: Linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence risk

Background: Recurrent involvement with a child protection (CP) system may indicate a failure of the system to intervene effectively following an initial CP report. While there are several ecological, socioeconomic, and organizational factors that may influence whether a family experiences recurrence...

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Main Authors: Tonino Esposito, Johanna Caldwell, Martin Chabot, Stéphanie Précourt, Nico Trocmé, Barbara Fallon, Sonia Hélie, John Fluke, Dana Hollinshead
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-10-01
Series:Child Protection and Practice
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950193825001251
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author Tonino Esposito
Johanna Caldwell
Martin Chabot
Stéphanie Précourt
Nico Trocmé
Barbara Fallon
Sonia Hélie
John Fluke
Dana Hollinshead
author_facet Tonino Esposito
Johanna Caldwell
Martin Chabot
Stéphanie Précourt
Nico Trocmé
Barbara Fallon
Sonia Hélie
John Fluke
Dana Hollinshead
author_sort Tonino Esposito
collection DOAJ
description Background: Recurrent involvement with a child protection (CP) system may indicate a failure of the system to intervene effectively following an initial CP report. While there are several ecological, socioeconomic, and organizational factors that may influence whether a family experiences recurrence, not much is known about the relationship of CP staffing levels to the likelihood of recurrence. Objective: This study employs data from across geographies of Quebec to explore whether the number of child protection workers responsible for evaluating reported concerns was associated with the likelihood of recurrence. We hypothesized that a higher number of workers would decrease the likelihood of recurrent substantiations during the study period. Participants and setting: Anonymized administrative CP data on first and subsequent substantiated reports were drawn from the Quebec CP system spanning the years 2000–2017. The study sample consisted of 720,681 children who were evaluated for the first time during the study period, of whom 25 % (n = 176,555) experienced a recurring substantiated investigation prior to age 18 or the end of the observation window. Annual levels of evaluation staffing levels for the CP agencies were extracted for the same time period and linked to the administrative dataset. Methods: Using a multilevel model, this study tested whether the number of CP evaluation workers per capita in a family's service delivery area was correlated to the likelihood of recurrent substantiation. Findings: After controlling for geographically measured socioeconomic vulnerability, we found a significant correlation between lower child population staffing levels and an increased likelihood of recurrent substantiation.”. The residual variance was 28.5 % lower for the model including child population staffing levels. Conclusion: Results of the analysis demonstrated a significant role of staffing levels in determining risk of recurrent substantiation in Quebec. More research is needed to understand the mechanisms underlying this relationship to better inform practice and policy improvements.
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spelling doaj-art-61874ebe1d9c4232998d1e7eec8d69fc2025-08-20T03:59:35ZengElsevierChild Protection and Practice2950-19382025-10-01610021710.1016/j.chipro.2025.100217Workforce and welfare: Linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence riskTonino Esposito0Johanna Caldwell1Martin Chabot2Stéphanie Précourt3Nico Trocmé4Barbara Fallon5Sonia Hélie6John Fluke7Dana Hollinshead8Canada Research Chair in Social Services for Vulnerable Children, Université de Montréal, School of social work – FAS, 3150, Jean-Brillant, Montreal, QC, H3T1J7, Canada; Corresponding author.Canada Research Chair in Social Services for Vulnerable Children, School of Social Work, Université de Montréal, CanadaCanada Research Chair in Social Services for Vulnerable Children, School of Social Work, Université de Montréal, CanadaInstitut universitaire Jeunes en difficulté (CIUSSS-CSMTL), School of Social Work, Université de Montréal, CanadaSchool of Social Work, McGill University, CanadaFactor-Inwentash Faculty of Social Work, University of Toronto, CanadaInstitut universitaire Jeunes en difficulté (CIUSSS-CSMTL), School of Social Work, Université de Montréal, CanadaSystems Research and Evaluation, University of Colorado, Kempe Centre, School of Medicine, United StatesUniversity of Colorado, Kempe Centre, School of Medicine, United StatesBackground: Recurrent involvement with a child protection (CP) system may indicate a failure of the system to intervene effectively following an initial CP report. While there are several ecological, socioeconomic, and organizational factors that may influence whether a family experiences recurrence, not much is known about the relationship of CP staffing levels to the likelihood of recurrence. Objective: This study employs data from across geographies of Quebec to explore whether the number of child protection workers responsible for evaluating reported concerns was associated with the likelihood of recurrence. We hypothesized that a higher number of workers would decrease the likelihood of recurrent substantiations during the study period. Participants and setting: Anonymized administrative CP data on first and subsequent substantiated reports were drawn from the Quebec CP system spanning the years 2000–2017. The study sample consisted of 720,681 children who were evaluated for the first time during the study period, of whom 25 % (n = 176,555) experienced a recurring substantiated investigation prior to age 18 or the end of the observation window. Annual levels of evaluation staffing levels for the CP agencies were extracted for the same time period and linked to the administrative dataset. Methods: Using a multilevel model, this study tested whether the number of CP evaluation workers per capita in a family's service delivery area was correlated to the likelihood of recurrent substantiation. Findings: After controlling for geographically measured socioeconomic vulnerability, we found a significant correlation between lower child population staffing levels and an increased likelihood of recurrent substantiation.”. The residual variance was 28.5 % lower for the model including child population staffing levels. Conclusion: Results of the analysis demonstrated a significant role of staffing levels in determining risk of recurrent substantiation in Quebec. More research is needed to understand the mechanisms underlying this relationship to better inform practice and policy improvements.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950193825001251
spellingShingle Tonino Esposito
Johanna Caldwell
Martin Chabot
Stéphanie Précourt
Nico Trocmé
Barbara Fallon
Sonia Hélie
John Fluke
Dana Hollinshead
Workforce and welfare: Linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence risk
Child Protection and Practice
title Workforce and welfare: Linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence risk
title_full Workforce and welfare: Linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence risk
title_fullStr Workforce and welfare: Linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence risk
title_full_unstemmed Workforce and welfare: Linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence risk
title_short Workforce and welfare: Linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence risk
title_sort workforce and welfare linking child protection staffing levels to recurrence risk
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2950193825001251
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