A hybrid framework: singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical-based fine-tuning for enhancing river water level forecasting
Abstract The precise monitoring and timely alerting of river water levels represent critical measures aimed at safeguarding the well-being and assets of residents in river basins. Achieving this objective necessitates the development of highly accurate river water level forecasts. Hence, a novel hyb...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-90628-6 |
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| author | Iman Ahmadianfar Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque Mumtaz Ali Mehdi Jamei Mozhdeh Jamei Zaher Mundher Yaseen |
| author_facet | Iman Ahmadianfar Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque Mumtaz Ali Mehdi Jamei Mozhdeh Jamei Zaher Mundher Yaseen |
| author_sort | Iman Ahmadianfar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The precise monitoring and timely alerting of river water levels represent critical measures aimed at safeguarding the well-being and assets of residents in river basins. Achieving this objective necessitates the development of highly accurate river water level forecasts. Hence, a novel hybrid model is provided, incorporating singular value decomposition (SVD) in conjunction with kernel-based ridge regression (SKRidge), multivariate variational mode decomposition (MVMD), and the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) as a feature selection method, along with the Runge–Kutta optimization (RUN) algorithm for parameter optimization. The L-SKRidge model combines the advantages of both the SKRidge and ridge regression techniques, resulting in a more robust and accurate forecasting tool. By incorporating the linear relationship and regularization techniques of ridge regression with the flexibility and adaptability of the SKRidge algorithm, the L-SKRidge model is able to capture complex patterns in the data while also preventing overfitting. The L-SKRidge method is applied to forecast water levels in the Brook and Dunk Rivers in Canada for two distinct time horizons, specifically one- and three days ahead. Statistical criteria and data visualization tools indicates that the L-SKRidge model has superior efficiency in both the Brook (achieving R = 0.970 and RMSE = 0.051) and Dunk (with R = 0.958 and RMSE = 0.039) Rivers, surpassing the performance of other hybrid and standalone frameworks. The results show that the L-SKRidge method has an acceptable ability to provide accurate water level predictions. This capability can be of significant use to academics and policymakers as they develop innovative approaches for hydraulic control and advance sustainable water resource management. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-617a49e31cc14968bc01eaa367e6f1d7 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-617a49e31cc14968bc01eaa367e6f1d72025-08-20T03:05:53ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-03-0115113410.1038/s41598-025-90628-6A hybrid framework: singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical-based fine-tuning for enhancing river water level forecastingIman Ahmadianfar0Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque1Mumtaz Ali2Mehdi Jamei3Mozhdeh Jamei4Zaher Mundher Yaseen5Department of Civil Engineering, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of TechnologyCanadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward IslandCanadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward IslandCanadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward IslandKhuzestan Water and Power AuthorityCivil and Environmental Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Petroleum and MineralsAbstract The precise monitoring and timely alerting of river water levels represent critical measures aimed at safeguarding the well-being and assets of residents in river basins. Achieving this objective necessitates the development of highly accurate river water level forecasts. Hence, a novel hybrid model is provided, incorporating singular value decomposition (SVD) in conjunction with kernel-based ridge regression (SKRidge), multivariate variational mode decomposition (MVMD), and the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) as a feature selection method, along with the Runge–Kutta optimization (RUN) algorithm for parameter optimization. The L-SKRidge model combines the advantages of both the SKRidge and ridge regression techniques, resulting in a more robust and accurate forecasting tool. By incorporating the linear relationship and regularization techniques of ridge regression with the flexibility and adaptability of the SKRidge algorithm, the L-SKRidge model is able to capture complex patterns in the data while also preventing overfitting. The L-SKRidge method is applied to forecast water levels in the Brook and Dunk Rivers in Canada for two distinct time horizons, specifically one- and three days ahead. Statistical criteria and data visualization tools indicates that the L-SKRidge model has superior efficiency in both the Brook (achieving R = 0.970 and RMSE = 0.051) and Dunk (with R = 0.958 and RMSE = 0.039) Rivers, surpassing the performance of other hybrid and standalone frameworks. The results show that the L-SKRidge method has an acceptable ability to provide accurate water level predictions. This capability can be of significant use to academics and policymakers as they develop innovative approaches for hydraulic control and advance sustainable water resource management.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-90628-6Water level forecastingSingular value decompositionKernel ridge regressionRunge–Kutta algorithmLight gradient boosting machine |
| spellingShingle | Iman Ahmadianfar Aitazaz Ahsan Farooque Mumtaz Ali Mehdi Jamei Mozhdeh Jamei Zaher Mundher Yaseen A hybrid framework: singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical-based fine-tuning for enhancing river water level forecasting Scientific Reports Water level forecasting Singular value decomposition Kernel ridge regression Runge–Kutta algorithm Light gradient boosting machine |
| title | A hybrid framework: singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical-based fine-tuning for enhancing river water level forecasting |
| title_full | A hybrid framework: singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical-based fine-tuning for enhancing river water level forecasting |
| title_fullStr | A hybrid framework: singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical-based fine-tuning for enhancing river water level forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | A hybrid framework: singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical-based fine-tuning for enhancing river water level forecasting |
| title_short | A hybrid framework: singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical-based fine-tuning for enhancing river water level forecasting |
| title_sort | hybrid framework singular value decomposition and kernel ridge regression optimized using mathematical based fine tuning for enhancing river water level forecasting |
| topic | Water level forecasting Singular value decomposition Kernel ridge regression Runge–Kutta algorithm Light gradient boosting machine |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-90628-6 |
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