Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium
Summary: The limited availability of lithium resources is often considered as potential constraints for the wide implementation of lithium-ion battery (LIB) energy storage technology. Alternative storage solutions, such as vanadium redox flow batteries (VRBs), are thus gaining traction as viable sub...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-05-01
|
| Series: | iScience |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004225007230 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849314627194716160 |
|---|---|
| author | Yongguang Zhu Xing Ye Saleem H. Ali Shiquan Dou Jinhua Cheng Gang Liu Deyi Xu |
| author_facet | Yongguang Zhu Xing Ye Saleem H. Ali Shiquan Dou Jinhua Cheng Gang Liu Deyi Xu |
| author_sort | Yongguang Zhu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: The limited availability of lithium resources is often considered as potential constraints for the wide implementation of lithium-ion battery (LIB) energy storage technology. Alternative storage solutions, such as vanadium redox flow batteries (VRBs), are thus gaining traction as viable substitutes for LIB energy storage. However, how price volatility and cost affect technology substitution and thus scale and dynamics of energy storage market remains hitherto poorly characterized. Here, we construct a binary mineral resource substitution model within the energy storage sector of China, integrating energy storage costs with the prices of lithium carbonate and vanadium pentoxide. We reveal a mutualistic relationship between LIB and VRB, where the substitutability elasticity of vanadium pentoxide prices relative to lithium carbonate prices gradually decreases as prices rise. Through scenario simulations, we explore various price scenarios and strategic development paths, finding that VRBs show potential for market penetration when vanadium prices are low and lithium carbonate prices are high or moderate. The optimal transformation path is to follow the planning path until 2030 and then transition to the radial path until 2060. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-610cd0cb9e8d4a0eb9ba15e9ac8d3ce3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2589-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | iScience |
| spelling | doaj-art-610cd0cb9e8d4a0eb9ba15e9ac8d3ce32025-08-20T03:52:24ZengElsevieriScience2589-00422025-05-0128511246210.1016/j.isci.2025.112462Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadiumYongguang Zhu0Xing Ye1Saleem H. Ali2Shiquan Dou3Jinhua Cheng4Gang Liu5Deyi Xu6School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Research Center for Resources and Environmental Economics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaDepartment of Geography and Spatial Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA; Sustainable Minerals Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4060, Australia; United Nations International Resource Panel, Paris, France; Corresponding authorSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Research Center for Resources and Environmental Economics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Research Center for Resources and Environmental Economics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 10087, China; Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing 10087, China; Corresponding authorSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Research Center for Resources and Environmental Economics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Corresponding authorSummary: The limited availability of lithium resources is often considered as potential constraints for the wide implementation of lithium-ion battery (LIB) energy storage technology. Alternative storage solutions, such as vanadium redox flow batteries (VRBs), are thus gaining traction as viable substitutes for LIB energy storage. However, how price volatility and cost affect technology substitution and thus scale and dynamics of energy storage market remains hitherto poorly characterized. Here, we construct a binary mineral resource substitution model within the energy storage sector of China, integrating energy storage costs with the prices of lithium carbonate and vanadium pentoxide. We reveal a mutualistic relationship between LIB and VRB, where the substitutability elasticity of vanadium pentoxide prices relative to lithium carbonate prices gradually decreases as prices rise. Through scenario simulations, we explore various price scenarios and strategic development paths, finding that VRBs show potential for market penetration when vanadium prices are low and lithium carbonate prices are high or moderate. The optimal transformation path is to follow the planning path until 2030 and then transition to the radial path until 2060.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004225007230Materials scienceEnergy materialsMaterials science engineering |
| spellingShingle | Yongguang Zhu Xing Ye Saleem H. Ali Shiquan Dou Jinhua Cheng Gang Liu Deyi Xu Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium iScience Materials science Energy materials Materials science engineering |
| title | Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium |
| title_full | Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium |
| title_fullStr | Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium |
| title_full_unstemmed | Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium |
| title_short | Resource substitutability path for China’s energy storage between lithium and vanadium |
| title_sort | resource substitutability path for china s energy storage between lithium and vanadium |
| topic | Materials science Energy materials Materials science engineering |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004225007230 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yongguangzhu resourcesubstitutabilitypathforchinasenergystoragebetweenlithiumandvanadium AT xingye resourcesubstitutabilitypathforchinasenergystoragebetweenlithiumandvanadium AT saleemhali resourcesubstitutabilitypathforchinasenergystoragebetweenlithiumandvanadium AT shiquandou resourcesubstitutabilitypathforchinasenergystoragebetweenlithiumandvanadium AT jinhuacheng resourcesubstitutabilitypathforchinasenergystoragebetweenlithiumandvanadium AT gangliu resourcesubstitutabilitypathforchinasenergystoragebetweenlithiumandvanadium AT deyixu resourcesubstitutabilitypathforchinasenergystoragebetweenlithiumandvanadium |