Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance

Abstract The proliferation of the potentially pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus due to climate change poses a growing public health threat worldwide. Here we present a global reanalysis of archived 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing data, suitable for the identification of bacteria and archaea,...

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Main Authors: David J. Riedinger, Christiane Hassenrück, Daniel Herlemann, Matthias Labrenz
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-03-01
Series:Communications Earth & Environment
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02182-8
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author David J. Riedinger
Christiane Hassenrück
Daniel Herlemann
Matthias Labrenz
author_facet David J. Riedinger
Christiane Hassenrück
Daniel Herlemann
Matthias Labrenz
author_sort David J. Riedinger
collection DOAJ
description Abstract The proliferation of the potentially pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus due to climate change poses a growing public health threat worldwide. Here we present a global reanalysis of archived 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing data, suitable for the identification of bacteria and archaea, to evaluate its current distribution and determine predictors of relative abundance. Two random forest models were trained to predict relative abundance using either satellite data or the prokaryotic community. The models indicated that, besides temperature and salinity, both chlorophyll-a and surface currents likely played a role in relative V. vulnificus abundance and that non-vulnificus Vibrio spp. and Pseudoaltermonas spp. were bacterial predictors of V. vulnificus. Collectively, this indicates decaying phytoplankton blooms stimulate V. vulnificus relative abundance. A poleward trend could accelerate due to climate change-induced modifications of phytoplankton dynamics and currents; factors that should be integrated into predictive modelling to estimate future risks.
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spelling doaj-art-60f41d92640146cb99ab1ba2cba9c96e2025-08-20T02:41:36ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-03-01611810.1038/s43247-025-02182-8Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundanceDavid J. Riedinger0Christiane Hassenrück1Daniel Herlemann2Matthias Labrenz3Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)Abstract The proliferation of the potentially pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus due to climate change poses a growing public health threat worldwide. Here we present a global reanalysis of archived 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing data, suitable for the identification of bacteria and archaea, to evaluate its current distribution and determine predictors of relative abundance. Two random forest models were trained to predict relative abundance using either satellite data or the prokaryotic community. The models indicated that, besides temperature and salinity, both chlorophyll-a and surface currents likely played a role in relative V. vulnificus abundance and that non-vulnificus Vibrio spp. and Pseudoaltermonas spp. were bacterial predictors of V. vulnificus. Collectively, this indicates decaying phytoplankton blooms stimulate V. vulnificus relative abundance. A poleward trend could accelerate due to climate change-induced modifications of phytoplankton dynamics and currents; factors that should be integrated into predictive modelling to estimate future risks.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02182-8
spellingShingle David J. Riedinger
Christiane Hassenrück
Daniel Herlemann
Matthias Labrenz
Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance
Communications Earth & Environment
title Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance
title_full Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance
title_fullStr Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance
title_full_unstemmed Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance
title_short Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance
title_sort global distribution and predictive modeling of vibrio vulnificus abundance
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02182-8
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AT matthiaslabrenz globaldistributionandpredictivemodelingofvibriovulnificusabundance