Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance
Abstract The proliferation of the potentially pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus due to climate change poses a growing public health threat worldwide. Here we present a global reanalysis of archived 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing data, suitable for the identification of bacteria and archaea,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02182-8 |
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| _version_ | 1850094678579347456 |
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| author | David J. Riedinger Christiane Hassenrück Daniel Herlemann Matthias Labrenz |
| author_facet | David J. Riedinger Christiane Hassenrück Daniel Herlemann Matthias Labrenz |
| author_sort | David J. Riedinger |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The proliferation of the potentially pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus due to climate change poses a growing public health threat worldwide. Here we present a global reanalysis of archived 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing data, suitable for the identification of bacteria and archaea, to evaluate its current distribution and determine predictors of relative abundance. Two random forest models were trained to predict relative abundance using either satellite data or the prokaryotic community. The models indicated that, besides temperature and salinity, both chlorophyll-a and surface currents likely played a role in relative V. vulnificus abundance and that non-vulnificus Vibrio spp. and Pseudoaltermonas spp. were bacterial predictors of V. vulnificus. Collectively, this indicates decaying phytoplankton blooms stimulate V. vulnificus relative abundance. A poleward trend could accelerate due to climate change-induced modifications of phytoplankton dynamics and currents; factors that should be integrated into predictive modelling to estimate future risks. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-60f41d92640146cb99ab1ba2cba9c96e |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-60f41d92640146cb99ab1ba2cba9c96e2025-08-20T02:41:36ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-03-01611810.1038/s43247-025-02182-8Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundanceDavid J. Riedinger0Christiane Hassenrück1Daniel Herlemann2Matthias Labrenz3Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW)Abstract The proliferation of the potentially pathogenic bacterium Vibrio vulnificus due to climate change poses a growing public health threat worldwide. Here we present a global reanalysis of archived 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing data, suitable for the identification of bacteria and archaea, to evaluate its current distribution and determine predictors of relative abundance. Two random forest models were trained to predict relative abundance using either satellite data or the prokaryotic community. The models indicated that, besides temperature and salinity, both chlorophyll-a and surface currents likely played a role in relative V. vulnificus abundance and that non-vulnificus Vibrio spp. and Pseudoaltermonas spp. were bacterial predictors of V. vulnificus. Collectively, this indicates decaying phytoplankton blooms stimulate V. vulnificus relative abundance. A poleward trend could accelerate due to climate change-induced modifications of phytoplankton dynamics and currents; factors that should be integrated into predictive modelling to estimate future risks.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02182-8 |
| spellingShingle | David J. Riedinger Christiane Hassenrück Daniel Herlemann Matthias Labrenz Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance |
| title_full | Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance |
| title_fullStr | Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance |
| title_short | Global distribution and predictive modeling of Vibrio vulnificus abundance |
| title_sort | global distribution and predictive modeling of vibrio vulnificus abundance |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02182-8 |
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