The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India
Abstract Riverine floods are one of the most frequent and destructive types of natural hazards globally. Although India has densely populated floodplains, national-scale trends in flood discharge observations remain largely unknown. Using representative streamflow records, we assessed changes in flo...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-06-01
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| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00099-y |
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| author | Sai Kiran Kuntla Manabendra Saharia Sharad Kumar Jain |
| author_facet | Sai Kiran Kuntla Manabendra Saharia Sharad Kumar Jain |
| author_sort | Sai Kiran Kuntla |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Riverine floods are one of the most frequent and destructive types of natural hazards globally. Although India has densely populated floodplains, national-scale trends in flood discharge observations remain largely unknown. Using representative streamflow records, we assessed changes in flood magnitude and timing across India with the modified Mann–Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s Slope Estimator. Results show a decreasing trend in flood magnitude at 74% of gauging stations, and regional variations in flood timing. We further examined links between continental-scale climate signals and flooding by analyzing precipitation and soil moisture patterns in identified hotspots. Declining precipitation and soil moisture reduced monsoon flood magnitude by 17% per decade in the West and Central Ganga basin, while rising pre-monsoon rainfall increased flood magnitude by 8% per decade on the Malabar coast. Early precipitation in the lower Yamuna and delayed precipitation in the Upper Ganga advanced and postponed floods, respectively. Flood discharges were dampened in arid basins, and large catchments experienced reduced flood magnitudes. These insights enhance our scientific understanding of flood dynamics and support targeted policy and disaster management strategies across India. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6095f48e0b2b4bcf8b185ba37858a62a |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2948-2100 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Natural Hazards |
| spelling | doaj-art-6095f48e0b2b4bcf8b185ba37858a62a2025-08-20T03:10:27ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002025-06-012111110.1038/s44304-025-00099-yThe changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in IndiaSai Kiran Kuntla0Manabendra Saharia1Sharad Kumar Jain2Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz KhasDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz KhasDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology RoorkeeAbstract Riverine floods are one of the most frequent and destructive types of natural hazards globally. Although India has densely populated floodplains, national-scale trends in flood discharge observations remain largely unknown. Using representative streamflow records, we assessed changes in flood magnitude and timing across India with the modified Mann–Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s Slope Estimator. Results show a decreasing trend in flood magnitude at 74% of gauging stations, and regional variations in flood timing. We further examined links between continental-scale climate signals and flooding by analyzing precipitation and soil moisture patterns in identified hotspots. Declining precipitation and soil moisture reduced monsoon flood magnitude by 17% per decade in the West and Central Ganga basin, while rising pre-monsoon rainfall increased flood magnitude by 8% per decade on the Malabar coast. Early precipitation in the lower Yamuna and delayed precipitation in the Upper Ganga advanced and postponed floods, respectively. Flood discharges were dampened in arid basins, and large catchments experienced reduced flood magnitudes. These insights enhance our scientific understanding of flood dynamics and support targeted policy and disaster management strategies across India.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00099-y |
| spellingShingle | Sai Kiran Kuntla Manabendra Saharia Sharad Kumar Jain The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India npj Natural Hazards |
| title | The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India |
| title_full | The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India |
| title_fullStr | The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India |
| title_full_unstemmed | The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India |
| title_short | The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India |
| title_sort | changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in india |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00099-y |
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