The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India

Abstract Riverine floods are one of the most frequent and destructive types of natural hazards globally. Although India has densely populated floodplains, national-scale trends in flood discharge observations remain largely unknown. Using representative streamflow records, we assessed changes in flo...

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Main Authors: Sai Kiran Kuntla, Manabendra Saharia, Sharad Kumar Jain
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:npj Natural Hazards
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00099-y
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author Sai Kiran Kuntla
Manabendra Saharia
Sharad Kumar Jain
author_facet Sai Kiran Kuntla
Manabendra Saharia
Sharad Kumar Jain
author_sort Sai Kiran Kuntla
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Riverine floods are one of the most frequent and destructive types of natural hazards globally. Although India has densely populated floodplains, national-scale trends in flood discharge observations remain largely unknown. Using representative streamflow records, we assessed changes in flood magnitude and timing across India with the modified Mann–Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s Slope Estimator. Results show a decreasing trend in flood magnitude at 74% of gauging stations, and regional variations in flood timing. We further examined links between continental-scale climate signals and flooding by analyzing precipitation and soil moisture patterns in identified hotspots. Declining precipitation and soil moisture reduced monsoon flood magnitude by 17% per decade in the West and Central Ganga basin, while rising pre-monsoon rainfall increased flood magnitude by 8% per decade on the Malabar coast. Early precipitation in the lower Yamuna and delayed precipitation in the Upper Ganga advanced and postponed floods, respectively. Flood discharges were dampened in arid basins, and large catchments experienced reduced flood magnitudes. These insights enhance our scientific understanding of flood dynamics and support targeted policy and disaster management strategies across India.
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spelling doaj-art-6095f48e0b2b4bcf8b185ba37858a62a2025-08-20T03:10:27ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002025-06-012111110.1038/s44304-025-00099-yThe changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in IndiaSai Kiran Kuntla0Manabendra Saharia1Sharad Kumar Jain2Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz KhasDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz KhasDepartment of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology RoorkeeAbstract Riverine floods are one of the most frequent and destructive types of natural hazards globally. Although India has densely populated floodplains, national-scale trends in flood discharge observations remain largely unknown. Using representative streamflow records, we assessed changes in flood magnitude and timing across India with the modified Mann–Kendall test and Theil-Sen’s Slope Estimator. Results show a decreasing trend in flood magnitude at 74% of gauging stations, and regional variations in flood timing. We further examined links between continental-scale climate signals and flooding by analyzing precipitation and soil moisture patterns in identified hotspots. Declining precipitation and soil moisture reduced monsoon flood magnitude by 17% per decade in the West and Central Ganga basin, while rising pre-monsoon rainfall increased flood magnitude by 8% per decade on the Malabar coast. Early precipitation in the lower Yamuna and delayed precipitation in the Upper Ganga advanced and postponed floods, respectively. Flood discharges were dampened in arid basins, and large catchments experienced reduced flood magnitudes. These insights enhance our scientific understanding of flood dynamics and support targeted policy and disaster management strategies across India.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00099-y
spellingShingle Sai Kiran Kuntla
Manabendra Saharia
Sharad Kumar Jain
The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India
npj Natural Hazards
title The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India
title_full The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India
title_fullStr The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India
title_full_unstemmed The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India
title_short The changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in India
title_sort changing magnitude and timing of riverine floods in india
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00099-y
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