Natural time analysis of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog using complexity measures

Natural time analysis (NTA) provides a powerful method to uncover dynamic features hidden behind seismic catalogs and identify when the system enters a critical stage before a major earthquake. In this paper, we perform a NTA of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog, spanning the period from 7 Janua...

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Main Authors: Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas, Leonardo Di G Sigalotti, Elsa L Flores-Márquez
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2025-01-01
Series:Journal of Physics: Complexity
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/adfb3e
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author Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas
Leonardo Di G Sigalotti
Elsa L Flores-Márquez
author_facet Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas
Leonardo Di G Sigalotti
Elsa L Flores-Márquez
author_sort Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas
collection DOAJ
description Natural time analysis (NTA) provides a powerful method to uncover dynamic features hidden behind seismic catalogs and identify when the system enters a critical stage before a major earthquake. In this paper, we perform a NTA of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog, spanning the period from 7 January 2000 to 31 October 2024. The analysis is based on a novel procedure for performing the window selection of events in natural time. In this method, which we term window lengthening , the time series of seismic parameters are calculated by consecutively increasing the length of the initial window by one event so that the last window contains the entire catalog. In this way, the past seismic history is always kept in memory. This procedure reveals that fluctuations of seismic parameters, such as the order parameter of seismicity, the change of entropy under time reversal, and the complexity measure, are less sensitive to low-magnitude events, exhibit deeper and more easily identifiable extrema in the proximity of major earthquakes, and are strongly correlated. These features are desirable to distinguish between precursory and non-precursory fluctuations to strong earthquakes.
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institution Kabale University
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series Journal of Physics: Complexity
spelling doaj-art-6026311f891040039f642d41b9bd04292025-08-22T09:56:58ZengIOP PublishingJournal of Physics: Complexity2632-072X2025-01-016303500910.1088/2632-072X/adfb3eNatural time analysis of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog using complexity measuresAlejandro Ramírez-Rojas0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4408-861XLeonardo Di G Sigalotti1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8043-0825Elsa L Flores-Márquez2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1115-063XDepartamento de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco (UAM-A) , Av. San Pablo 420, Colonia Nueva el Rosario, Alcaldía Azcapotzalco, 02128 Mexico City, MexicoDepartamento de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Azcapotzalco (UAM-A) , Av. San Pablo 420, Colonia Nueva el Rosario, Alcaldía Azcapotzalco, 02128 Mexico City, MexicoInstituto de Geofísica, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México , Circuito de la Investigación Científica, Ciudad Universitaria, Alcaldía Coyoacán, Mexico City 04510, MexicoNatural time analysis (NTA) provides a powerful method to uncover dynamic features hidden behind seismic catalogs and identify when the system enters a critical stage before a major earthquake. In this paper, we perform a NTA of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog, spanning the period from 7 January 2000 to 31 October 2024. The analysis is based on a novel procedure for performing the window selection of events in natural time. In this method, which we term window lengthening , the time series of seismic parameters are calculated by consecutively increasing the length of the initial window by one event so that the last window contains the entire catalog. In this way, the past seismic history is always kept in memory. This procedure reveals that fluctuations of seismic parameters, such as the order parameter of seismicity, the change of entropy under time reversal, and the complexity measure, are less sensitive to low-magnitude events, exhibit deeper and more easily identifiable extrema in the proximity of major earthquakes, and are strongly correlated. These features are desirable to distinguish between precursory and non-precursory fluctuations to strong earthquakes.https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/adfb3enatural timeearthquakescritical pointentropycomplexityorder parameter
spellingShingle Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas
Leonardo Di G Sigalotti
Elsa L Flores-Márquez
Natural time analysis of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog using complexity measures
Journal of Physics: Complexity
natural time
earthquakes
critical point
entropy
complexity
order parameter
title Natural time analysis of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog using complexity measures
title_full Natural time analysis of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog using complexity measures
title_fullStr Natural time analysis of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog using complexity measures
title_full_unstemmed Natural time analysis of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog using complexity measures
title_short Natural time analysis of the corrected Mexican seismic catalog using complexity measures
title_sort natural time analysis of the corrected mexican seismic catalog using complexity measures
topic natural time
earthquakes
critical point
entropy
complexity
order parameter
url https://doi.org/10.1088/2632-072X/adfb3e
work_keys_str_mv AT alejandroramirezrojas naturaltimeanalysisofthecorrectedmexicanseismiccatalogusingcomplexitymeasures
AT leonardodigsigalotti naturaltimeanalysisofthecorrectedmexicanseismiccatalogusingcomplexitymeasures
AT elsalfloresmarquez naturaltimeanalysisofthecorrectedmexicanseismiccatalogusingcomplexitymeasures