Remittances and the Dutch Disease: an empirical analysis in the context of Ethiopia

The Dutch Disease, initially associated with natural resource discovery, has evolved to include various capital inflows. This study investigates the relationship between remittance inflows and the Dutch Disease in Ethiopia, focusing on the real effective exchange rate. Using a 30-year time series (1...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Mohammed Yimam Ali, Getachew Abebaw Ayele
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Taylor & Francis Group 2024-12-01
Series:Cogent Social Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311886.2024.2338868
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849233902249443328
author Mohammed Yimam Ali
Getachew Abebaw Ayele
author_facet Mohammed Yimam Ali
Getachew Abebaw Ayele
author_sort Mohammed Yimam Ali
collection DOAJ
description The Dutch Disease, initially associated with natural resource discovery, has evolved to include various capital inflows. This study investigates the relationship between remittance inflows and the Dutch Disease in Ethiopia, focusing on the real effective exchange rate. Using a 30-year time series (1991–2020) and a Vector Error Correction Model, the study finds a robust long-run relationship among remittances, official development assistance, money supply, terms of trade, domestic credit, and real gross domestic product. The empirical results reveal that remittances, along with other variables, significantly affect the real effective exchange rate in both the short and long run. Contrary to the Dutch Disease hypothesis, remittance inflows did not lead to real effective exchange rate appreciation in the long run. Trade liberalization and government consumption of non-tradables were also identified as influential factors. The short-run dynamics indicate a significant speed of adjustment towards equilibrium, emphasizing the importance of understanding the macroeconomic impacts of remittances on real effective exchange rate. Policy implications include managing real effective exchange rate through targeted interventions, considering trade liberalization to enhance export competitiveness, and designing remittance policies to utilize capital for economic development without fearing Dutch Disease consequences. The study also recommends the disaggregation of foreign aid data for more nuanced policy insights. Overall, this research contributes valuable insights for policymakers in navigating the complexities of remittances, economic variables, and the real effective exchange rate in Ethiopia, facilitating informed and effective policy decisions.
format Article
id doaj-art-5ffa45781bef4ce08e9f6c68868e81eb
institution Kabale University
issn 2331-1886
language English
publishDate 2024-12-01
publisher Taylor & Francis Group
record_format Article
series Cogent Social Sciences
spelling doaj-art-5ffa45781bef4ce08e9f6c68868e81eb2025-08-20T04:03:21ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Social Sciences2331-18862024-12-0110110.1080/23311886.2024.2338868Remittances and the Dutch Disease: an empirical analysis in the context of EthiopiaMohammed Yimam Ali0Getachew Abebaw Ayele1Department of Economics, Woldia University, Woldia, EthiopiaDepartment of Economics, Bahir dar University, Bahir Dar, EthiopiaThe Dutch Disease, initially associated with natural resource discovery, has evolved to include various capital inflows. This study investigates the relationship between remittance inflows and the Dutch Disease in Ethiopia, focusing on the real effective exchange rate. Using a 30-year time series (1991–2020) and a Vector Error Correction Model, the study finds a robust long-run relationship among remittances, official development assistance, money supply, terms of trade, domestic credit, and real gross domestic product. The empirical results reveal that remittances, along with other variables, significantly affect the real effective exchange rate in both the short and long run. Contrary to the Dutch Disease hypothesis, remittance inflows did not lead to real effective exchange rate appreciation in the long run. Trade liberalization and government consumption of non-tradables were also identified as influential factors. The short-run dynamics indicate a significant speed of adjustment towards equilibrium, emphasizing the importance of understanding the macroeconomic impacts of remittances on real effective exchange rate. Policy implications include managing real effective exchange rate through targeted interventions, considering trade liberalization to enhance export competitiveness, and designing remittance policies to utilize capital for economic development without fearing Dutch Disease consequences. The study also recommends the disaggregation of foreign aid data for more nuanced policy insights. Overall, this research contributes valuable insights for policymakers in navigating the complexities of remittances, economic variables, and the real effective exchange rate in Ethiopia, facilitating informed and effective policy decisions.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311886.2024.2338868Dutch diseaseremittancesreal effective exchange ratevector error correction modelGeorge Mudimu, Development Sciences, Marondera University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Marondera, ZimbabweEconomics
spellingShingle Mohammed Yimam Ali
Getachew Abebaw Ayele
Remittances and the Dutch Disease: an empirical analysis in the context of Ethiopia
Cogent Social Sciences
Dutch disease
remittances
real effective exchange rate
vector error correction model
George Mudimu, Development Sciences, Marondera University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Marondera, Zimbabwe
Economics
title Remittances and the Dutch Disease: an empirical analysis in the context of Ethiopia
title_full Remittances and the Dutch Disease: an empirical analysis in the context of Ethiopia
title_fullStr Remittances and the Dutch Disease: an empirical analysis in the context of Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed Remittances and the Dutch Disease: an empirical analysis in the context of Ethiopia
title_short Remittances and the Dutch Disease: an empirical analysis in the context of Ethiopia
title_sort remittances and the dutch disease an empirical analysis in the context of ethiopia
topic Dutch disease
remittances
real effective exchange rate
vector error correction model
George Mudimu, Development Sciences, Marondera University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, Marondera, Zimbabwe
Economics
url https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311886.2024.2338868
work_keys_str_mv AT mohammedyimamali remittancesandthedutchdiseaseanempiricalanalysisinthecontextofethiopia
AT getachewabebawayele remittancesandthedutchdiseaseanempiricalanalysisinthecontextofethiopia