Modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in Xinjiang, China
Quantitative evaluation of changes in water supply and demand, water scarcity, and their influencing factors is essential for the sustainable management of regional water resources, food production, and ecological health. In this study, a distributed climate-water-ecology-economy (CWEE) comprehensiv...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25007095 |
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| author | Ying Guo Yanfang Wang Chao Zhao Min Liu Xiaolong Zhang Yanjun Shen |
| author_facet | Ying Guo Yanfang Wang Chao Zhao Min Liu Xiaolong Zhang Yanjun Shen |
| author_sort | Ying Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Quantitative evaluation of changes in water supply and demand, water scarcity, and their influencing factors is essential for the sustainable management of regional water resources, food production, and ecological health. In this study, a distributed climate-water-ecology-economy (CWEE) comprehensive water demand model was established to estimate the spatial and temporal changes in socio-economic and ecological water demand. Annual and seasonal changes in water scarcity levels were spatially analyzed in Xinjiang. Subsequently, the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method was employed to decompose the contributions of three major impact factors to changes in water scarcity. The results indicated that the socio-economic water demand in Xinjiang increased significantly, with a 110% increase (1989–2017). The water scarcity index (WSI) showed an increasing trend in fluctuation, which was between 0.29 and 0.42 with a predominant moderate water scarcity before 2007 and higher than 0.5 with severe water scarcity after 2007. Monthly water scarcity was prominent in some basins. The improvement in water use efficiency helped to reduce socio-economic water demand. However, the sharp expansion of the planting scale and changes in the crop structure have led to a significant increase in socio-economic water demand (with agricultural water demand contributing over 93%), emerging as the primary factors exacerbating water scarcity. Therefore, controlling the crop planting scale, reasonably arranging the crop structure, and developing agricultural water-saving technologies are the main measures to relieve water scarcity and realize sustainable development in Xinjiang. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5f5528fb4fed44bfa2a1cae3748b1c64 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-5f5528fb4fed44bfa2a1cae3748b1c642025-08-20T02:44:29ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-08-0117711377910.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113779Modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in Xinjiang, ChinaYing Guo0Yanfang Wang1Chao Zhao2Min Liu3Xiaolong Zhang4Yanjun Shen5Hebei Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water-Saving, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, ChinaSchool of Land Science and Space Planning/Hebei International Joint Research Center for Remote Sensing of Agricultural Drought Monitoring, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China; Corresponding authors.China Meteorological Administration Xiong’an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory, Xiong’an New Area 071800, China; Hebei Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment, Shijiazhuang 050021, China; Hebei Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, ChinaInstitute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050061, ChinaHebei Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water-Saving, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, ChinaHebei Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water-Saving, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China; Corresponding authors.Quantitative evaluation of changes in water supply and demand, water scarcity, and their influencing factors is essential for the sustainable management of regional water resources, food production, and ecological health. In this study, a distributed climate-water-ecology-economy (CWEE) comprehensive water demand model was established to estimate the spatial and temporal changes in socio-economic and ecological water demand. Annual and seasonal changes in water scarcity levels were spatially analyzed in Xinjiang. Subsequently, the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) method was employed to decompose the contributions of three major impact factors to changes in water scarcity. The results indicated that the socio-economic water demand in Xinjiang increased significantly, with a 110% increase (1989–2017). The water scarcity index (WSI) showed an increasing trend in fluctuation, which was between 0.29 and 0.42 with a predominant moderate water scarcity before 2007 and higher than 0.5 with severe water scarcity after 2007. Monthly water scarcity was prominent in some basins. The improvement in water use efficiency helped to reduce socio-economic water demand. However, the sharp expansion of the planting scale and changes in the crop structure have led to a significant increase in socio-economic water demand (with agricultural water demand contributing over 93%), emerging as the primary factors exacerbating water scarcity. Therefore, controlling the crop planting scale, reasonably arranging the crop structure, and developing agricultural water-saving technologies are the main measures to relieve water scarcity and realize sustainable development in Xinjiang.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25007095Water demand modelWater resourcesWater shortagePlanting structureLMDI |
| spellingShingle | Ying Guo Yanfang Wang Chao Zhao Min Liu Xiaolong Zhang Yanjun Shen Modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in Xinjiang, China Ecological Indicators Water demand model Water resources Water shortage Planting structure LMDI |
| title | Modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_full | Modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_short | Modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_sort | modelling the impact of agriculture expansion on water scarcity in xinjiang china |
| topic | Water demand model Water resources Water shortage Planting structure LMDI |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25007095 |
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