On the existence of momentum in professional football.
Using United States National Football League play-by-play data for the 2002-2012 seasons, we train a neural network to predict win probability, based on measures of the game state. This predictor's performance is comparable to the point spread at the start of the game and improves thereafter wi...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2022-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0269604&type=printable |
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| _version_ | 1850023635780108288 |
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| author | Paul J Roebber Bryan M Burlingame Anthony deWinter |
| author_facet | Paul J Roebber Bryan M Burlingame Anthony deWinter |
| author_sort | Paul J Roebber |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Using United States National Football League play-by-play data for the 2002-2012 seasons, we train a neural network to predict win probability, based on measures of the game state. This predictor's performance is comparable to the point spread at the start of the game and improves thereafter with little bias. We define a measure of success as the change in a team's win probability over the course of a possession, and show that streaks in this measure are highly unlikely to be random. Further, this finding holds when controlling for the effects of clock management in the fourth quarter of football games, when win probability can increase incrementally for the leading team as the game continues. By defining momentum as an increase in win probability over the course of at least three successive changes in possession, we show some ability to anticipate its emergence, based on game state, using a second neural network. The possibility of using this knowledge for strategic advantage is discussed. We consider these results in the context of examples from National Football League games, including that from Super Bowl LI (Atlanta Falcons versus the New England Patriots), and end with some discussion of future extensions to this work. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5e981e34bc1f4b8baca4e07c1f94fc83 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-5e981e34bc1f4b8baca4e07c1f94fc832025-08-20T03:01:19ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032022-01-01176e026960410.1371/journal.pone.0269604On the existence of momentum in professional football.Paul J RoebberBryan M BurlingameAnthony deWinterUsing United States National Football League play-by-play data for the 2002-2012 seasons, we train a neural network to predict win probability, based on measures of the game state. This predictor's performance is comparable to the point spread at the start of the game and improves thereafter with little bias. We define a measure of success as the change in a team's win probability over the course of a possession, and show that streaks in this measure are highly unlikely to be random. Further, this finding holds when controlling for the effects of clock management in the fourth quarter of football games, when win probability can increase incrementally for the leading team as the game continues. By defining momentum as an increase in win probability over the course of at least three successive changes in possession, we show some ability to anticipate its emergence, based on game state, using a second neural network. The possibility of using this knowledge for strategic advantage is discussed. We consider these results in the context of examples from National Football League games, including that from Super Bowl LI (Atlanta Falcons versus the New England Patriots), and end with some discussion of future extensions to this work.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0269604&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Paul J Roebber Bryan M Burlingame Anthony deWinter On the existence of momentum in professional football. PLoS ONE |
| title | On the existence of momentum in professional football. |
| title_full | On the existence of momentum in professional football. |
| title_fullStr | On the existence of momentum in professional football. |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the existence of momentum in professional football. |
| title_short | On the existence of momentum in professional football. |
| title_sort | on the existence of momentum in professional football |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0269604&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT pauljroebber ontheexistenceofmomentuminprofessionalfootball AT bryanmburlingame ontheexistenceofmomentuminprofessionalfootball AT anthonydewinter ontheexistenceofmomentuminprofessionalfootball |