Attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental change
Water resources are pivotal for sustaining human development. Understanding the variations and driving mechanisms of blue and green water resources is essential for the effective management and planning of regional water resources. Based on land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1980, 2000, and 20...
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005047 |
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| author | Yang Liu Zhaoyang Zeng Chengguang Lai Sijing He Jie Jiang Zhaoli Wang |
| author_facet | Yang Liu Zhaoyang Zeng Chengguang Lai Sijing He Jie Jiang Zhaoli Wang |
| author_sort | Yang Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Water resources are pivotal for sustaining human development. Understanding the variations and driving mechanisms of blue and green water resources is essential for the effective management and planning of regional water resources. Based on land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1980, 2000, and 2015, three SWAT models were developed for the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB), and five simulation scenarios were designed to estimate the spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors, and scarcity of blue water (BW) and green water (GW). The results indicate that BW is more abundant in the northern HRB, while GW is more concentrated in the south. The green water coefficient ranges from 0.39 to 0.60. In HRB, climate change is the primary driver of variations in BW and GW, with relative contributions of 72.03–79.49% and 50.79–52.25%, respectively. Among different LULC types, forest and cropland are significant drivers of both BW and GW changes. The contribution of urban land is higher in the second period (2000–2015) than in the first period (1975–2000). BW is strongly driven by precipitation and negatively affected by potential evapotranspiration (PET), while GW is primarily influenced by PET. From 2003 to 2016, the HRB experienced moderate blue water scarcity (average of 1.16) and moderate green water scarcity (average of 0.70). The Falkenmark Index for the HRB ranges from 500 to 1700, with an average of 1126.21, indicating prevailing water stress and water scarcity. Both blue and green water scarcity are mainly affected by precipitation, PET, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI); PET exacerbates both, while precipitation and NDVI mitigate them. This study jointly assessed the attribution and scarcity of BW and GW and further analyzed the individual impacts of multiple climatic and LULC factors, offering a more nuanced perspective compared to previous studies. The findings provide a scientific basis for regional water resource management, agricultural water use optimization, and enhancement of ecosystem resilience under changing climate and land use conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5e897507a4ba438ba9fdcd4d7adb6419 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-5e897507a4ba438ba9fdcd4d7adb64192025-08-20T02:29:20ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-06-0117511357410.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113574Attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental changeYang Liu0Zhaoyang Zeng1Chengguang Lai2Sijing He3Jie Jiang4Zhaoli Wang5School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China; College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China; Pazhou Lab, Guangzhou 510335, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China; Pazhou Lab, Guangzhou 510335, China; Corresponding author at: School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building and Urban Science, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641, China.Water resources are pivotal for sustaining human development. Understanding the variations and driving mechanisms of blue and green water resources is essential for the effective management and planning of regional water resources. Based on land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1980, 2000, and 2015, three SWAT models were developed for the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB), and five simulation scenarios were designed to estimate the spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors, and scarcity of blue water (BW) and green water (GW). The results indicate that BW is more abundant in the northern HRB, while GW is more concentrated in the south. The green water coefficient ranges from 0.39 to 0.60. In HRB, climate change is the primary driver of variations in BW and GW, with relative contributions of 72.03–79.49% and 50.79–52.25%, respectively. Among different LULC types, forest and cropland are significant drivers of both BW and GW changes. The contribution of urban land is higher in the second period (2000–2015) than in the first period (1975–2000). BW is strongly driven by precipitation and negatively affected by potential evapotranspiration (PET), while GW is primarily influenced by PET. From 2003 to 2016, the HRB experienced moderate blue water scarcity (average of 1.16) and moderate green water scarcity (average of 0.70). The Falkenmark Index for the HRB ranges from 500 to 1700, with an average of 1126.21, indicating prevailing water stress and water scarcity. Both blue and green water scarcity are mainly affected by precipitation, PET, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI); PET exacerbates both, while precipitation and NDVI mitigate them. This study jointly assessed the attribution and scarcity of BW and GW and further analyzed the individual impacts of multiple climatic and LULC factors, offering a more nuanced perspective compared to previous studies. The findings provide a scientific basis for regional water resource management, agricultural water use optimization, and enhancement of ecosystem resilience under changing climate and land use conditions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005047Blue and green waterAttribution analysisWater scarcityClimate changeLand use changeHanjiang River basin |
| spellingShingle | Yang Liu Zhaoyang Zeng Chengguang Lai Sijing He Jie Jiang Zhaoli Wang Attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental change Ecological Indicators Blue and green water Attribution analysis Water scarcity Climate change Land use change Hanjiang River basin |
| title | Attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental change |
| title_full | Attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental change |
| title_fullStr | Attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental change |
| title_short | Attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental change |
| title_sort | attribution and scarcity analysis of blue and green water resources in a river basin under climate and environmental change |
| topic | Blue and green water Attribution analysis Water scarcity Climate change Land use change Hanjiang River basin |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X25005047 |
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