Provincial export cost implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s metal industry
Summary: China’s exports of iron and steel, aluminum, and their products (ISAP) are significantly affected by the European Union (EU) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This study introduces a modeling framework coupling a global multi-regional input-output table and the integrated assessmen...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-05-01
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| Series: | iScience |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004225007448 |
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| author | Xunzhang Pan Xin Gao Tianpeng Wang Wei Xiong Tianming Shao Meng Li Xuan Ye Lining Wang Hailin Wang Jun Pang |
| author_facet | Xunzhang Pan Xin Gao Tianpeng Wang Wei Xiong Tianming Shao Meng Li Xuan Ye Lining Wang Hailin Wang Jun Pang |
| author_sort | Xunzhang Pan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: China’s exports of iron and steel, aluminum, and their products (ISAP) are significantly affected by the European Union (EU) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This study introduces a modeling framework coupling a global multi-regional input-output table and the integrated assessment model GCAM-China, both of which embed Chinese provinces, to dynamically assess provincial cost implications of CBAM for China’s ISAP exports, considering China’s upcoming 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions. By 2034, direct emissions from China’s ISAP exports to the EU reach 5.4 MtCO2, with CBAM costs of €1,157 million. Including indirect power use raises exports to 7.4 MtCO2 and €1,572 million. Accounting for supply chain emissions yields 15.8 MtCO2 and €3,378 million. Over 65% of these costs fall on Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Liaoning, and Zhejiang. Ambitious 2035 mitigation could substantially reduce CBAM costs, with about 45% of incremental costs for accelerating electric arc furnace penetration potentially offset by avoided CBAM costs. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5d952ae40e0a410a8d98d3e2bce0d1a1 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2589-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | iScience |
| spelling | doaj-art-5d952ae40e0a410a8d98d3e2bce0d1a12025-08-20T02:27:10ZengElsevieriScience2589-00422025-05-0128511248310.1016/j.isci.2025.112483Provincial export cost implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s metal industryXunzhang Pan0Xin Gao1Tianpeng Wang2Wei Xiong3Tianming Shao4Meng Li5Xuan Ye6Lining Wang7Hailin Wang8Jun Pang9School of Ecology & Environment, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, ChinaSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, ChinaInstitute of Energy, Environment, and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Corresponding authorInstitute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaDepartment of Industrial Engineering and Management, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, ChinaInstitute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaEconomics & Technology Research Institute, China National Petroleum Corporation, Beijing 100724, ChinaInstitute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Corresponding authorSchool of Ecology & Environment, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, ChinaSummary: China’s exports of iron and steel, aluminum, and their products (ISAP) are significantly affected by the European Union (EU) Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This study introduces a modeling framework coupling a global multi-regional input-output table and the integrated assessment model GCAM-China, both of which embed Chinese provinces, to dynamically assess provincial cost implications of CBAM for China’s ISAP exports, considering China’s upcoming 2035 Nationally Determined Contributions. By 2034, direct emissions from China’s ISAP exports to the EU reach 5.4 MtCO2, with CBAM costs of €1,157 million. Including indirect power use raises exports to 7.4 MtCO2 and €1,572 million. Accounting for supply chain emissions yields 15.8 MtCO2 and €3,378 million. Over 65% of these costs fall on Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, Liaoning, and Zhejiang. Ambitious 2035 mitigation could substantially reduce CBAM costs, with about 45% of incremental costs for accelerating electric arc furnace penetration potentially offset by avoided CBAM costs.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004225007448EconomicsEnvironmental policy |
| spellingShingle | Xunzhang Pan Xin Gao Tianpeng Wang Wei Xiong Tianming Shao Meng Li Xuan Ye Lining Wang Hailin Wang Jun Pang Provincial export cost implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s metal industry iScience Economics Environmental policy |
| title | Provincial export cost implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s metal industry |
| title_full | Provincial export cost implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s metal industry |
| title_fullStr | Provincial export cost implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s metal industry |
| title_full_unstemmed | Provincial export cost implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s metal industry |
| title_short | Provincial export cost implications of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s metal industry |
| title_sort | provincial export cost implications of the eu carbon border adjustment mechanism on china s metal industry |
| topic | Economics Environmental policy |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004225007448 |
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