Quantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high-burdened setting
Abstract Recent studies using sensitive aerosol sampling and detection methodologies, have enumerated aerosolized Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) across a spectrum of tuberculosis states in a high-burdened setting. To estimate the Mtb exposure rate we used a Bayesian inference approach to fit a rev...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81558-w |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849238851581640704 |
|---|---|
| author | Benjamin Patterson Sabine Hermans Robin Wood Frank Cobelens |
| author_facet | Benjamin Patterson Sabine Hermans Robin Wood Frank Cobelens |
| author_sort | Benjamin Patterson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Recent studies using sensitive aerosol sampling and detection methodologies, have enumerated aerosolized Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) across a spectrum of tuberculosis states in a high-burdened setting. To estimate the Mtb exposure rate we used a Bayesian inference approach to fit a reversible catalytic model to age-specific, respiratory bioaerosol Mtb prevalence data. Longitudinal monitoring of symptomatic sputum-negative, untreated clinic attendees informed a prior for the Mtb bioaerosol clearance rate. Based on an observed bioaerosol Mtb population prevalence of 62.6% and a clearance half-life of 83 days, the estimated exposure rate was 5.1/year. This result was extremely sensitive to bioaerosol Mtb population prevalence but including a simulated rate of exposure of zero until the age of 10-years did not influence the overall estimate for rate of exposure. A catalytic model without reversion was a poorer fit to the prevalence data than the primary reverse catalytic model. Mtb bioaerosol sampling findings imply an extremely high rate of Mtb exposure within tuberculosis endemic communities with rapid cycling between bioaerosol carriage and clearance. Even assuming a much lower bioaerosol Mtb population prevalence, the estimated exposure rate is an order of magnitude greater than published annual rates of Mtb infection. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5d817983cc024e75af1c963d40d0bc80 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-5d817983cc024e75af1c963d40d0bc802025-08-20T04:01:24ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-011511710.1038/s41598-024-81558-wQuantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high-burdened settingBenjamin Patterson0Sabine Hermans1Robin Wood2Frank Cobelens3Department of Global Health and Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam UMC Location University of AmsterdamDepartment of Global Health and Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam UMC Location University of AmsterdamInstitute of Infectious Disease and Molecular Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape TownDepartment of Global Health and Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development, Amsterdam UMC Location University of AmsterdamAbstract Recent studies using sensitive aerosol sampling and detection methodologies, have enumerated aerosolized Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) across a spectrum of tuberculosis states in a high-burdened setting. To estimate the Mtb exposure rate we used a Bayesian inference approach to fit a reversible catalytic model to age-specific, respiratory bioaerosol Mtb prevalence data. Longitudinal monitoring of symptomatic sputum-negative, untreated clinic attendees informed a prior for the Mtb bioaerosol clearance rate. Based on an observed bioaerosol Mtb population prevalence of 62.6% and a clearance half-life of 83 days, the estimated exposure rate was 5.1/year. This result was extremely sensitive to bioaerosol Mtb population prevalence but including a simulated rate of exposure of zero until the age of 10-years did not influence the overall estimate for rate of exposure. A catalytic model without reversion was a poorer fit to the prevalence data than the primary reverse catalytic model. Mtb bioaerosol sampling findings imply an extremely high rate of Mtb exposure within tuberculosis endemic communities with rapid cycling between bioaerosol carriage and clearance. Even assuming a much lower bioaerosol Mtb population prevalence, the estimated exposure rate is an order of magnitude greater than published annual rates of Mtb infection.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81558-w |
| spellingShingle | Benjamin Patterson Sabine Hermans Robin Wood Frank Cobelens Quantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high-burdened setting Scientific Reports |
| title | Quantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high-burdened setting |
| title_full | Quantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high-burdened setting |
| title_fullStr | Quantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high-burdened setting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high-burdened setting |
| title_short | Quantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high-burdened setting |
| title_sort | quantification of tuberculosis exposure in a high burdened setting |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81558-w |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT benjaminpatterson quantificationoftuberculosisexposureinahighburdenedsetting AT sabinehermans quantificationoftuberculosisexposureinahighburdenedsetting AT robinwood quantificationoftuberculosisexposureinahighburdenedsetting AT frankcobelens quantificationoftuberculosisexposureinahighburdenedsetting |