Features and signals in precocious citation impact: A meta-research study.
The current analysis aimed to evaluate the profiles of scientists who reach top citation impact in a very short time once they start publishing. Precocious citation impact was defined as rising to become a top-cited scientist within t ≤ 8 years after the first publication year. Ultra-precocious cita...
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2025-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328531 |
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| _version_ | 1849228153595101184 |
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| author | John P A Ioannidis |
| author_facet | John P A Ioannidis |
| author_sort | John P A Ioannidis |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The current analysis aimed to evaluate the profiles of scientists who reach top citation impact in a very short time once they start publishing. Precocious citation impact was defined as rising to become a top-cited scientist within t ≤ 8 years after the first publication year. Ultra-precocious citation impact was defined similarly for t ≤ 5 years. Top-cited authors included those in the top-2% of a previously validated composite citation indicator across 174 subfields of science or in the top-100,000 authors of that composite citation indicator across all science based on Scopus. Annual data between 2017 and 2023 show a strong increase over time, with 469 precocious and 66 ultra-precocious citation impact author profiles in 2023. In-depth assessment of validated ultra-precocious scientists in 2023, showed significantly higher frequency of less developed country affiliation; clustering in 4 high-risk subfields; high self-citations for their field; being top-cited only when self-citations were included; high citations to citing papers ratio for their field; extreme publishing behavior; extreme citation orchestration metric c/h2; and high percentage of citations given to first-authored papers compared with all top-cited authors (p < 0.005 for all signals). The 17 ultra-precocious citation impact authors in the 2017-2020 top-cited lists who had retractions showed on average 4.1 of these 8 signal indicators at the time they entered the top-cited list. In conclusion, while some authors with precocious citation impact may be stellar scientists, others probably herald massive manipulative or fraudulent behaviors infiltrating the scientific literature. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5d4286c557f740efbde6735c53f87c85 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
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| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-5d4286c557f740efbde6735c53f87c852025-08-23T05:32:11ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032025-01-01208e032853110.1371/journal.pone.0328531Features and signals in precocious citation impact: A meta-research study.John P A IoannidisThe current analysis aimed to evaluate the profiles of scientists who reach top citation impact in a very short time once they start publishing. Precocious citation impact was defined as rising to become a top-cited scientist within t ≤ 8 years after the first publication year. Ultra-precocious citation impact was defined similarly for t ≤ 5 years. Top-cited authors included those in the top-2% of a previously validated composite citation indicator across 174 subfields of science or in the top-100,000 authors of that composite citation indicator across all science based on Scopus. Annual data between 2017 and 2023 show a strong increase over time, with 469 precocious and 66 ultra-precocious citation impact author profiles in 2023. In-depth assessment of validated ultra-precocious scientists in 2023, showed significantly higher frequency of less developed country affiliation; clustering in 4 high-risk subfields; high self-citations for their field; being top-cited only when self-citations were included; high citations to citing papers ratio for their field; extreme publishing behavior; extreme citation orchestration metric c/h2; and high percentage of citations given to first-authored papers compared with all top-cited authors (p < 0.005 for all signals). The 17 ultra-precocious citation impact authors in the 2017-2020 top-cited lists who had retractions showed on average 4.1 of these 8 signal indicators at the time they entered the top-cited list. In conclusion, while some authors with precocious citation impact may be stellar scientists, others probably herald massive manipulative or fraudulent behaviors infiltrating the scientific literature.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328531 |
| spellingShingle | John P A Ioannidis Features and signals in precocious citation impact: A meta-research study. PLoS ONE |
| title | Features and signals in precocious citation impact: A meta-research study. |
| title_full | Features and signals in precocious citation impact: A meta-research study. |
| title_fullStr | Features and signals in precocious citation impact: A meta-research study. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Features and signals in precocious citation impact: A meta-research study. |
| title_short | Features and signals in precocious citation impact: A meta-research study. |
| title_sort | features and signals in precocious citation impact a meta research study |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0328531 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT johnpaioannidis featuresandsignalsinprecociouscitationimpactametaresearchstudy |