Long‐Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036)
ABSTRACT Objectives The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and f...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-06-01
|
| Series: | Cancer Medicine |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.70999 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849424106587422720 |
|---|---|
| author | Huiqiang Wu Zhiyin Cai Wanyi Liu Zechuan Wang Baoying Qiu Weihui Liu Weihuang Zhuang |
| author_facet | Huiqiang Wu Zhiyin Cai Wanyi Liu Zechuan Wang Baoying Qiu Weihui Liu Weihuang Zhuang |
| author_sort | Huiqiang Wu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ABSTRACT Objectives The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and factors. Methods The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was utilised to analyse the incidence and mortality trends of MM from 1990 to 2021. An age‐period‐cohort model was employed to evaluate the disparities among nations, while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast the impending developments over the subsequent 15 years. Results The study found the burden of MM continues to increase in China and the Russian Federation, with significant increases particularly in older age groups. In the United States of America, age‐standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age‐standardised death rates (ASDR) showed a downward trend, reflecting a reduction in the burden of disease. In England and France, ASIR increased overall, but ASDR remained stable. The burden of MM was found to be significantly correlated with age, period effect, and birth cohort through age‐period‐cohort analysis. The ARIMA model predictions indicated an increasing trend in ASIR and a stable ASDR in China and the Russian Federation, while in England, France, and the United States of America, there was an overall stabilisation of ASIR and ASDR. Conclusions Significant differences in the burden of MM were found among the five countries. China and the Russian Federation are facing an increasing MM burden, particularly in older age groups, while the United States of America, England and France have made progress through early screening and treatment. The study suggests focusing on older populations, promoting early diagnosis and personalised treatment, and addressing lifestyle and environmental factors. Future research should examine risk factors across countries to inform public health policy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5d3ba7bdb03a457181ffd8382e60f5f4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-7634 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cancer Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-5d3ba7bdb03a457181ffd8382e60f5f42025-08-20T03:30:20ZengWileyCancer Medicine2045-76342025-06-011412n/an/a10.1002/cam4.70999Long‐Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036)Huiqiang Wu0Zhiyin Cai1Wanyi Liu2Zechuan Wang3Baoying Qiu4Weihui Liu5Weihuang Zhuang6The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University Quanzhou Fujian Province ChinaThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University Quanzhou Fujian Province ChinaDepartment of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital Fujian Medical University Quanzhou Fujian Province ChinaDepartment of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital Fujian Medical University Quanzhou Fujian Province ChinaDepartment of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital Fujian Medical University Quanzhou Fujian Province ChinaDepartment of Urology The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University Quanzhou Fujian ChinaDepartment of Hematology, The Second Affiliated Hospital Fujian Medical University Quanzhou Fujian Province ChinaABSTRACT Objectives The objective of this study was to analyse trends in the burden of multiple myeloma (MM) in the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England, and France) to understand country differences and factors. Methods The Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 was utilised to analyse the incidence and mortality trends of MM from 1990 to 2021. An age‐period‐cohort model was employed to evaluate the disparities among nations, while an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was employed to forecast the impending developments over the subsequent 15 years. Results The study found the burden of MM continues to increase in China and the Russian Federation, with significant increases particularly in older age groups. In the United States of America, age‐standardised incidence rates (ASIR) and age‐standardised death rates (ASDR) showed a downward trend, reflecting a reduction in the burden of disease. In England and France, ASIR increased overall, but ASDR remained stable. The burden of MM was found to be significantly correlated with age, period effect, and birth cohort through age‐period‐cohort analysis. The ARIMA model predictions indicated an increasing trend in ASIR and a stable ASDR in China and the Russian Federation, while in England, France, and the United States of America, there was an overall stabilisation of ASIR and ASDR. Conclusions Significant differences in the burden of MM were found among the five countries. China and the Russian Federation are facing an increasing MM burden, particularly in older age groups, while the United States of America, England and France have made progress through early screening and treatment. The study suggests focusing on older populations, promoting early diagnosis and personalised treatment, and addressing lifestyle and environmental factors. Future research should examine risk factors across countries to inform public health policy.https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.70999age‐period‐cohortdeathsincidencemultiple myelomasecular trendsUnited Nations Security Council |
| spellingShingle | Huiqiang Wu Zhiyin Cai Wanyi Liu Zechuan Wang Baoying Qiu Weihui Liu Weihuang Zhuang Long‐Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036) Cancer Medicine age‐period‐cohort deaths incidence multiple myeloma secular trends United Nations Security Council |
| title | Long‐Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036) |
| title_full | Long‐Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036) |
| title_fullStr | Long‐Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long‐Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036) |
| title_short | Long‐Term Trends and Projections of Multiple Myeloma Across Three Continents: A Comparative Study of China, the United States of America, the Russian Federation, England and France (1990–2036) |
| title_sort | long term trends and projections of multiple myeloma across three continents a comparative study of china the united states of america the russian federation england and france 1990 2036 |
| topic | age‐period‐cohort deaths incidence multiple myeloma secular trends United Nations Security Council |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.70999 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT huiqiangwu longtermtrendsandprojectionsofmultiplemyelomaacrossthreecontinentsacomparativestudyofchinatheunitedstatesofamericatherussianfederationenglandandfrance19902036 AT zhiyincai longtermtrendsandprojectionsofmultiplemyelomaacrossthreecontinentsacomparativestudyofchinatheunitedstatesofamericatherussianfederationenglandandfrance19902036 AT wanyiliu longtermtrendsandprojectionsofmultiplemyelomaacrossthreecontinentsacomparativestudyofchinatheunitedstatesofamericatherussianfederationenglandandfrance19902036 AT zechuanwang longtermtrendsandprojectionsofmultiplemyelomaacrossthreecontinentsacomparativestudyofchinatheunitedstatesofamericatherussianfederationenglandandfrance19902036 AT baoyingqiu longtermtrendsandprojectionsofmultiplemyelomaacrossthreecontinentsacomparativestudyofchinatheunitedstatesofamericatherussianfederationenglandandfrance19902036 AT weihuiliu longtermtrendsandprojectionsofmultiplemyelomaacrossthreecontinentsacomparativestudyofchinatheunitedstatesofamericatherussianfederationenglandandfrance19902036 AT weihuangzhuang longtermtrendsandprojectionsofmultiplemyelomaacrossthreecontinentsacomparativestudyofchinatheunitedstatesofamericatherussianfederationenglandandfrance19902036 |