Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework
<p>Land use is a key human driver affecting Earth’s biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and biodiversity. Therefore, projecting future land use is crucial for global change impact analyses. This study compares harmonized land-use and management trends, analyzing uncertainties through a three-fac...
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Copernicus Publications
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Earth System Dynamics |
| Online Access: | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/753/2025/esd-16-753-2025.pdf |
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| author | E. J. Molina Bacca E. J. Molina Bacca M. Stevanović B. L. Bodirsky J. C. Doelman J. C. Doelman L. Parsons Chini J. Volkholz K. Frieler K. Frieler C. P. O. Reyer G. Hurtt F. Humpenöder K. Karstens K. Karstens J. Heinke C. Müller J. P. Dietrich H. Lotze-Campen H. Lotze-Campen E. Stehfest A. Popp A. Popp |
| author_facet | E. J. Molina Bacca E. J. Molina Bacca M. Stevanović B. L. Bodirsky J. C. Doelman J. C. Doelman L. Parsons Chini J. Volkholz K. Frieler K. Frieler C. P. O. Reyer G. Hurtt F. Humpenöder K. Karstens K. Karstens J. Heinke C. Müller J. P. Dietrich H. Lotze-Campen H. Lotze-Campen E. Stehfest A. Popp A. Popp |
| author_sort | E. J. Molina Bacca |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Land use is a key human driver affecting Earth’s biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and biodiversity. Therefore, projecting future land use is crucial for global change impact analyses. This study compares harmonized land-use and management trends, analyzing uncertainties through a three-factor variance analysis involving socioeconomic–climate scenarios, land-use models, and climate models. The projected patterns are used as human-forcing inputs for the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 3b (ISIMIP3b) and multiple impact modeling teams. We employ two models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) to project future land use and management under three socioeconomic–climate scenarios (SSP1–RCP2.6, SSP3–RCP7.0, and SSP5–RCP8.5), driven by impact data like yields, water demand, and carbon stocks from updated climate projections of five global models, considering CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> fertilization effects. On the global level, there is strong agreement among land-use models on land-use trends in the SSP1–RCP2.6 scenario (low adaptation and mitigation challenges). However, significant differences exist in management-related variables, such as the area allocated for second-generation bioenergy crops. Uncertainty in land-use variables increases with higher spatial resolution, particularly concerning the locations where cropland and grassland shrinkage could occur under this scenario. In SSP5–RCP8.5 and SSP3–RCP7.0, differences among land-use models in global and regional trends are primarily associated with grassland area demand. Concerning the variance analysis, the selection of climate models minimally affects the variance in projections at different scales. However, the influence of the socioeconomic–climate scenarios, the land-use model, and interactions among the underlying factors on projected uncertainty varies for the different land-use and management variables. Our results highlight the need for more intercomparison exercises focusing on future spatially explicit projections to enhance understanding of the intricate interplay between human activities, climate, socioeconomic dynamics, land responses, and their associated uncertainties on the high-resolution level as models evolve. It also underscores the importance of region-specific strategies to balance agricultural productivity, environmental conservation, and sustainable resource use, emphasizing adaptive capacity building, improved land-use management, and targeted conservation efforts.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5d0e41f08ac940f2a498c0cc2f72b6f6 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2190-4979 2190-4987 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth System Dynamics |
| spelling | doaj-art-5d0e41f08ac940f2a498c0cc2f72b6f62025-08-20T02:34:36ZengCopernicus PublicationsEarth System Dynamics2190-49792190-49872025-06-011675380110.5194/esd-16-753-2025Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b frameworkE. J. Molina Bacca0E. J. Molina Bacca1M. Stevanović2B. L. Bodirsky3J. C. Doelman4J. C. Doelman5L. Parsons Chini6J. Volkholz7K. Frieler8K. Frieler9C. P. O. Reyer10G. Hurtt11F. Humpenöder12K. Karstens13K. Karstens14J. Heinke15C. Müller16J. P. Dietrich17H. Lotze-Campen18H. Lotze-Campen19E. Stehfest20A. Popp21A. Popp22Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the NetherlandsCopernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the NetherlandsDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USAPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyInstitute for Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USAPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyDepartment of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, GermanyPBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the NetherlandsPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyFaculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Witzenhausen, Germany<p>Land use is a key human driver affecting Earth’s biogeochemical cycles, hydrology, and biodiversity. Therefore, projecting future land use is crucial for global change impact analyses. This study compares harmonized land-use and management trends, analyzing uncertainties through a three-factor variance analysis involving socioeconomic–climate scenarios, land-use models, and climate models. The projected patterns are used as human-forcing inputs for the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 3b (ISIMIP3b) and multiple impact modeling teams. We employ two models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) to project future land use and management under three socioeconomic–climate scenarios (SSP1–RCP2.6, SSP3–RCP7.0, and SSP5–RCP8.5), driven by impact data like yields, water demand, and carbon stocks from updated climate projections of five global models, considering CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> fertilization effects. On the global level, there is strong agreement among land-use models on land-use trends in the SSP1–RCP2.6 scenario (low adaptation and mitigation challenges). However, significant differences exist in management-related variables, such as the area allocated for second-generation bioenergy crops. Uncertainty in land-use variables increases with higher spatial resolution, particularly concerning the locations where cropland and grassland shrinkage could occur under this scenario. In SSP5–RCP8.5 and SSP3–RCP7.0, differences among land-use models in global and regional trends are primarily associated with grassland area demand. Concerning the variance analysis, the selection of climate models minimally affects the variance in projections at different scales. However, the influence of the socioeconomic–climate scenarios, the land-use model, and interactions among the underlying factors on projected uncertainty varies for the different land-use and management variables. Our results highlight the need for more intercomparison exercises focusing on future spatially explicit projections to enhance understanding of the intricate interplay between human activities, climate, socioeconomic dynamics, land responses, and their associated uncertainties on the high-resolution level as models evolve. It also underscores the importance of region-specific strategies to balance agricultural productivity, environmental conservation, and sustainable resource use, emphasizing adaptive capacity building, improved land-use management, and targeted conservation efforts.</p>https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/753/2025/esd-16-753-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | E. J. Molina Bacca E. J. Molina Bacca M. Stevanović B. L. Bodirsky J. C. Doelman J. C. Doelman L. Parsons Chini J. Volkholz K. Frieler K. Frieler C. P. O. Reyer G. Hurtt F. Humpenöder K. Karstens K. Karstens J. Heinke C. Müller J. P. Dietrich H. Lotze-Campen H. Lotze-Campen E. Stehfest A. Popp A. Popp Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework Earth System Dynamics |
| title | Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework |
| title_full | Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework |
| title_fullStr | Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework |
| title_short | Future land-use pattern projections and their differences within the ISIMIP3b framework |
| title_sort | future land use pattern projections and their differences within the isimip3b framework |
| url | https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/753/2025/esd-16-753-2025.pdf |
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