Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation
Abstract Precipitation is an important factor influencing the date of foliar senescence, which in turn affects carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the temporal patterns of precipitation frequency and its impact on foliar senescence date remain largely unknown. Using both long-term carb...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56159-4 |
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| author | Xinyi Zhang Xiaoyue Wang Constantin M. Zohner Josep Peñuelas Yang Li Xiuchen Wu Yao Zhang Huiying Liu Pengju Shen Xiaoxu Jia Wenbin Liu Dashuan Tian Prajal Pradhan Adandé Belarmain Fandohan Dailiang Peng Chaoyang Wu |
| author_facet | Xinyi Zhang Xiaoyue Wang Constantin M. Zohner Josep Peñuelas Yang Li Xiuchen Wu Yao Zhang Huiying Liu Pengju Shen Xiaoxu Jia Wenbin Liu Dashuan Tian Prajal Pradhan Adandé Belarmain Fandohan Dailiang Peng Chaoyang Wu |
| author_sort | Xinyi Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Precipitation is an important factor influencing the date of foliar senescence, which in turn affects carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the temporal patterns of precipitation frequency and its impact on foliar senescence date remain largely unknown. Using both long-term carbon flux data and satellite observations across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that, after excluding impacts from of temperature, radiation and total precipitation by partial correlation analysis, declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier foliar senescence date from 1982 to 2022. A decrease in precipitation frequency intensifies drought stress by reducing root-zone soil moisture and increasing atmospheric dryness, and limit the photosynthesis necessary for sustained growth. The enhanced drought acclimation, showing a more rapid response to drought, also explains the positive relationship between precipitation frequency and foliar senescence date. Finally, we find 30 current state-of-art Earth system models largely fail to capture the sensitivity of DFS to changes in precipitation frequency and incorrectly predict the direction of correlations for approximately half of the northern global lands, in both historical simulations and future predictions. Our results therefore highlight the critical need to include precipitation frequency, rather than just total precipitation, into models to accurately forecast plant phenology under future climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5cfe632aca8d4e81a63f9ad1c5bc2616 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-5cfe632aca8d4e81a63f9ad1c5bc26162025-01-26T12:41:29ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-011611910.1038/s41467-025-56159-4Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimationXinyi Zhang0Xiaoyue Wang1Constantin M. Zohner2Josep Peñuelas3Yang Li4Xiuchen Wu5Yao Zhang6Huiying Liu7Pengju Shen8Xiaoxu Jia9Wenbin Liu10Dashuan Tian11Prajal Pradhan12Adandé Belarmain Fandohan13Dailiang Peng14Chaoyang Wu15The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesThe Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesDepartment of Environmental Systems Science, Institute of Integrative Biology, ETH ZurichCSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, BellaterraSchool of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ArizonaState Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal UniversitySino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, Peking UniversityInstitute of Eco-Chongming (IEC), East China Normal UniversityThe Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesThe Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesThe Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesUniversity of the Chinese Academy of SciencesIntegrated Research on Energy, Environment, and Society (IREES), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of GroningenUnité de Recherche en Foresterie et Conservation des Bioressources, Ecole de Foresterie Tropicale, Université Nationale d’AgricultureKey Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of SciencesThe Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract Precipitation is an important factor influencing the date of foliar senescence, which in turn affects carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the temporal patterns of precipitation frequency and its impact on foliar senescence date remain largely unknown. Using both long-term carbon flux data and satellite observations across the Northern Hemisphere, we show that, after excluding impacts from of temperature, radiation and total precipitation by partial correlation analysis, declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier foliar senescence date from 1982 to 2022. A decrease in precipitation frequency intensifies drought stress by reducing root-zone soil moisture and increasing atmospheric dryness, and limit the photosynthesis necessary for sustained growth. The enhanced drought acclimation, showing a more rapid response to drought, also explains the positive relationship between precipitation frequency and foliar senescence date. Finally, we find 30 current state-of-art Earth system models largely fail to capture the sensitivity of DFS to changes in precipitation frequency and incorrectly predict the direction of correlations for approximately half of the northern global lands, in both historical simulations and future predictions. Our results therefore highlight the critical need to include precipitation frequency, rather than just total precipitation, into models to accurately forecast plant phenology under future climate change.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56159-4 |
| spellingShingle | Xinyi Zhang Xiaoyue Wang Constantin M. Zohner Josep Peñuelas Yang Li Xiuchen Wu Yao Zhang Huiying Liu Pengju Shen Xiaoxu Jia Wenbin Liu Dashuan Tian Prajal Pradhan Adandé Belarmain Fandohan Dailiang Peng Chaoyang Wu Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation Nature Communications |
| title | Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation |
| title_full | Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation |
| title_fullStr | Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation |
| title_short | Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation |
| title_sort | declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56159-4 |
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