Variations in Impacts of Climate Change on Giant <i>Lobelia</i> Species in East Africa

Climate change presents major challenges to global biodiversity and ecosystems. Related species distributed in the same region may exhibit differential response patterns to global climate change, resulting in divergent conservation strategies. East Africa is a critical hub for the diversity and dist...

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Main Authors: Radwa Salah, Mohamed Ezzat, Elijah Mbandi Mkala, Mohammed A. Dakhil, Tao Wan, Jun-Nan Wan
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-04-01
Series:Diversity
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/4/274
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author Radwa Salah
Mohamed Ezzat
Elijah Mbandi Mkala
Mohammed A. Dakhil
Tao Wan
Jun-Nan Wan
author_facet Radwa Salah
Mohamed Ezzat
Elijah Mbandi Mkala
Mohammed A. Dakhil
Tao Wan
Jun-Nan Wan
author_sort Radwa Salah
collection DOAJ
description Climate change presents major challenges to global biodiversity and ecosystems. Related species distributed in the same region may exhibit differential response patterns to global climate change, resulting in divergent conservation strategies. East Africa is a critical hub for the diversity and distribution of giant <i>Lobelia</i>. In this study, we examined the potential distribution of seven giant <i>Lobelia</i> species (<i>Lobelia aberdarica</i>, <i>L. telekii</i>, <i>L. gibberoa</i>, <i>L. bambuseti</i>, <i>L. deckenii</i>, <i>L. gregoriana</i>, and <i>L. rhynchopetalum</i>) across six East African countries (Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi) under projected climate change scenarios both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Species distribution models yielded high predictive accuracy (TSS > 0.8), with the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) emerging as the most influential climatic variable determining future species distribution. The study found considerable variation in the species’ climatic niches, identifying distinct regions of climatically suitable habitats for each. <i>Lobelia</i> species at lower altitudes, such as <i>L. giberroa</i> and <i>L. bambuseti</i>, showed greater stability and expansion. In comparison, species at higher altitudes, such as <i>L. telekii</i>, <i>L. deckenii</i>, and <i>L. rhynchopetalum</i>, faced significant contraction in suitable habitats. These high-altitude species are particularly vulnerable and require urgent conservation interventions. This research highlights the importance of climate change considerations in the conservation of <i>Lobelia</i> species and provides a basis for developing targeted sustainable conservation.
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spelling doaj-art-5cf66da95b854ae989f76c1169945d402025-08-20T02:17:19ZengMDPI AGDiversity1424-28182025-04-0117427410.3390/d17040274Variations in Impacts of Climate Change on Giant <i>Lobelia</i> Species in East AfricaRadwa Salah0Mohamed Ezzat1Elijah Mbandi Mkala2Mohammed A. Dakhil3Tao Wan4Jun-Nan Wan5State Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaBotany and Microbiology Department, Faculty of Science, Helwan University, Cairo 11795, EgyptState Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Plant Diversity and Specialty Crops, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaClimate change presents major challenges to global biodiversity and ecosystems. Related species distributed in the same region may exhibit differential response patterns to global climate change, resulting in divergent conservation strategies. East Africa is a critical hub for the diversity and distribution of giant <i>Lobelia</i>. In this study, we examined the potential distribution of seven giant <i>Lobelia</i> species (<i>Lobelia aberdarica</i>, <i>L. telekii</i>, <i>L. gibberoa</i>, <i>L. bambuseti</i>, <i>L. deckenii</i>, <i>L. gregoriana</i>, and <i>L. rhynchopetalum</i>) across six East African countries (Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi) under projected climate change scenarios both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Species distribution models yielded high predictive accuracy (TSS > 0.8), with the mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9) emerging as the most influential climatic variable determining future species distribution. The study found considerable variation in the species’ climatic niches, identifying distinct regions of climatically suitable habitats for each. <i>Lobelia</i> species at lower altitudes, such as <i>L. giberroa</i> and <i>L. bambuseti</i>, showed greater stability and expansion. In comparison, species at higher altitudes, such as <i>L. telekii</i>, <i>L. deckenii</i>, and <i>L. rhynchopetalum</i>, faced significant contraction in suitable habitats. These high-altitude species are particularly vulnerable and require urgent conservation interventions. This research highlights the importance of climate change considerations in the conservation of <i>Lobelia</i> species and provides a basis for developing targeted sustainable conservation.https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/4/274climate changegiant <i>Lobelia</i>East Africaspecies distribution modelsbiodiversity conservation
spellingShingle Radwa Salah
Mohamed Ezzat
Elijah Mbandi Mkala
Mohammed A. Dakhil
Tao Wan
Jun-Nan Wan
Variations in Impacts of Climate Change on Giant <i>Lobelia</i> Species in East Africa
Diversity
climate change
giant <i>Lobelia</i>
East Africa
species distribution models
biodiversity conservation
title Variations in Impacts of Climate Change on Giant <i>Lobelia</i> Species in East Africa
title_full Variations in Impacts of Climate Change on Giant <i>Lobelia</i> Species in East Africa
title_fullStr Variations in Impacts of Climate Change on Giant <i>Lobelia</i> Species in East Africa
title_full_unstemmed Variations in Impacts of Climate Change on Giant <i>Lobelia</i> Species in East Africa
title_short Variations in Impacts of Climate Change on Giant <i>Lobelia</i> Species in East Africa
title_sort variations in impacts of climate change on giant i lobelia i species in east africa
topic climate change
giant <i>Lobelia</i>
East Africa
species distribution models
biodiversity conservation
url https://www.mdpi.com/1424-2818/17/4/274
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