Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the Dadu–Min River Region
Under the pressures of global climate change, the sustainable management of plant resources in alpine gorge regions faces severe challenges. <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> is widely harvested and utilized by residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu River–Min Ri...
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2025-07-01
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| author | Yi Huang Jingtian Yang Guanghua Zhao Zixi Shama Qingsong Ge Yang Yang Jian Yang |
| author_facet | Yi Huang Jingtian Yang Guanghua Zhao Zixi Shama Qingsong Ge Yang Yang Jian Yang |
| author_sort | Yi Huang |
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| description | Under the pressures of global climate change, the sustainable management of plant resources in alpine gorge regions faces severe challenges. <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> is widely harvested and utilized by residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu River–Min River basin due to its high edible and medicinal value. This study employed ensemble models to simulate the potential distribution of <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, the centroid migration of suitable habitats, and niche dynamics. A production dynamics model was also constructed to identify current and future potential cultivation areas by integrating ecological suitability and nutritional component synergies. The results show that current high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones of <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> are predominantly distributed in patchy, fragmented patterns across the Wenchuan, Li, Mao, Luding, and Xiaojin Counties and Kangding City. Under climate change, the “mountain-top trap effect” drives a significant increase in high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones, while moderate-to-low-suitability areas and marginal cultivation zones decrease substantially. Meanwhile, suitable habitats and cultivation areas exhibit a northward migration trend toward higher latitudes. The most significant changes in suitable area and cultivation zone extent, as well as the most pronounced niche shifts, occur under high-emission climate scenarios. This research facilitates the development of suitability-based management strategies for <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the study region and provides scientific references for the sustainable utilization of montane plant resources in the face of climate change. |
| format | Article |
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| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj-art-5ce51c40e07f47ea91bb4baeb0269a6b2025-08-20T03:32:27ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472025-07-011414212310.3390/plants14142123Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the Dadu–Min River RegionYi Huang0Jingtian Yang1Guanghua Zhao2Zixi Shama3Qingsong Ge4Yang Yang5Jian Yang6Sichuan Provincial Forest and Grassland Key Laboratory of Alpine Grassland Conservation and Utilization of Tibetan Plateau, College of Grassland Resources, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu 610041, ChinaEcological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang 621000, ChinaSchool of Life Science, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, ChinaEcological Security and Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang 621000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Biodiversity and Environment on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology and Environment, Tibet University, Lhasa 850000, ChinaSichuan Provincial Forest and Grassland Key Laboratory of Alpine Grassland Conservation and Utilization of Tibetan Plateau, College of Grassland Resources, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu 610041, ChinaSichuan Provincial Forest and Grassland Key Laboratory of Alpine Grassland Conservation and Utilization of Tibetan Plateau, College of Grassland Resources, Southwest Minzu University, Chengdu 610041, ChinaUnder the pressures of global climate change, the sustainable management of plant resources in alpine gorge regions faces severe challenges. <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> is widely harvested and utilized by residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu River–Min River basin due to its high edible and medicinal value. This study employed ensemble models to simulate the potential distribution of <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, the centroid migration of suitable habitats, and niche dynamics. A production dynamics model was also constructed to identify current and future potential cultivation areas by integrating ecological suitability and nutritional component synergies. The results show that current high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones of <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> are predominantly distributed in patchy, fragmented patterns across the Wenchuan, Li, Mao, Luding, and Xiaojin Counties and Kangding City. Under climate change, the “mountain-top trap effect” drives a significant increase in high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones, while moderate-to-low-suitability areas and marginal cultivation zones decrease substantially. Meanwhile, suitable habitats and cultivation areas exhibit a northward migration trend toward higher latitudes. The most significant changes in suitable area and cultivation zone extent, as well as the most pronounced niche shifts, occur under high-emission climate scenarios. This research facilitates the development of suitability-based management strategies for <i>P. aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the study region and provides scientific references for the sustainable utilization of montane plant resources in the face of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/14/2123climate changecultivation areasensemble modelspotential distribution<i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> |
| spellingShingle | Yi Huang Jingtian Yang Guanghua Zhao Zixi Shama Qingsong Ge Yang Yang Jian Yang Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the Dadu–Min River Region Plants climate change cultivation areas ensemble models potential distribution <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> |
| title | Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the Dadu–Min River Region |
| title_full | Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the Dadu–Min River Region |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the Dadu–Min River Region |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the Dadu–Min River Region |
| title_short | Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> in the Dadu–Min River Region |
| title_sort | modeling the future of a wild edible fern under climate change distribution and cultivation zones of i pteridium aquilinum i var i latiusculum i in the dadu min river region |
| topic | climate change cultivation areas ensemble models potential distribution <i>Pteridium aquilinum</i> var. <i>latiusculum</i> |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/14/2123 |
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