Exploring configurations of a European energy system within the planetary boundaries

Planetary Boundaries and other carrying capacities define a safe operating space for humanity. However, current energy system models often address sustainability too narrowly with a focus on greenhouse gas emissions during the operational phase, and neglecting other environmental impacts can lead to...

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Main Authors: Théo Balanza, Nicolas Campion, Mathias Berg Rosendal, Rasmus Bramstoft, Anders Bjørn
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2025-01-01
Series:Environmental Research Letters
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade26b
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author Théo Balanza
Nicolas Campion
Mathias Berg Rosendal
Rasmus Bramstoft
Anders Bjørn
author_facet Théo Balanza
Nicolas Campion
Mathias Berg Rosendal
Rasmus Bramstoft
Anders Bjørn
author_sort Théo Balanza
collection DOAJ
description Planetary Boundaries and other carrying capacities define a safe operating space for humanity. However, current energy system models often address sustainability too narrowly with a focus on greenhouse gas emissions during the operational phase, and neglecting other environmental impacts can lead to suboptimal and unsustainable energy systems. This study integrates environmental impacts and planetary boundaries as constraints into a multi-sectoral energy system model to explore sustainable configurations for the European energy system in 2050. Our results indicate that it will not be possible to stay within all allocated carrying capacities without a combined application of energy demand reduction, large-scale deployment of renewable energies, electrification of heating, and technological improvements. Specifically, with the most permissive allocation principle, European electricity and heat demand must be limited to 3550 $\mathrm{TWh_e}$ and 4655 $\mathrm{TWh_{th}}$ to remain within the planetary boundaries, which represents a 22% and 24% reduction compared to 2050 projected final energy demand for the sectors of electricity and heat, excluding transport and fuels demands. Results show that scenario normally considered ‘Net Zero’ would transgress the allocated budget for climate change by 70%, despite a high deployment of renewable energies, when life cycle impacts are considered. All generated scenarios highly rely on renewable energies and the electrification of heating. The analysis of the different scenarios highlights substantial burden shifts across carrying capacities when only considering climate change and praises a global environmental approach in decision-making. Climate change, land use and particulate matter are identified as the most impacted categories when designing an energy system.
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spelling doaj-art-5cd12e79464e4c8ab8a2b73c27d04f802025-08-20T03:45:40ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262025-01-0120707405010.1088/1748-9326/ade26bExploring configurations of a European energy system within the planetary boundariesThéo Balanza0https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8397-1969Nicolas Campion1https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7606-4017Mathias Berg Rosendal2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7366-4305Rasmus Bramstoft3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8875-8718Anders Bjørn4https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9332-5346Technical University of Denmark , Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkTechnical University of Denmark , Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkTechnical University of Denmark , Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkTechnical University of Denmark , Department of Technology, Management and Economics, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkTechnical University of Denmark , Department of Environmental and Resource Engineering, Kongens Lyngby, DenmarkPlanetary Boundaries and other carrying capacities define a safe operating space for humanity. However, current energy system models often address sustainability too narrowly with a focus on greenhouse gas emissions during the operational phase, and neglecting other environmental impacts can lead to suboptimal and unsustainable energy systems. This study integrates environmental impacts and planetary boundaries as constraints into a multi-sectoral energy system model to explore sustainable configurations for the European energy system in 2050. Our results indicate that it will not be possible to stay within all allocated carrying capacities without a combined application of energy demand reduction, large-scale deployment of renewable energies, electrification of heating, and technological improvements. Specifically, with the most permissive allocation principle, European electricity and heat demand must be limited to 3550 $\mathrm{TWh_e}$ and 4655 $\mathrm{TWh_{th}}$ to remain within the planetary boundaries, which represents a 22% and 24% reduction compared to 2050 projected final energy demand for the sectors of electricity and heat, excluding transport and fuels demands. Results show that scenario normally considered ‘Net Zero’ would transgress the allocated budget for climate change by 70%, despite a high deployment of renewable energies, when life cycle impacts are considered. All generated scenarios highly rely on renewable energies and the electrification of heating. The analysis of the different scenarios highlights substantial burden shifts across carrying capacities when only considering climate change and praises a global environmental approach in decision-making. Climate change, land use and particulate matter are identified as the most impacted categories when designing an energy system.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade26bplanetary boundariesabsolute environmental sustainability assessmentlife cycle assessmentcarrying capacitiesenergy system analysisenergy system modelling
spellingShingle Théo Balanza
Nicolas Campion
Mathias Berg Rosendal
Rasmus Bramstoft
Anders Bjørn
Exploring configurations of a European energy system within the planetary boundaries
Environmental Research Letters
planetary boundaries
absolute environmental sustainability assessment
life cycle assessment
carrying capacities
energy system analysis
energy system modelling
title Exploring configurations of a European energy system within the planetary boundaries
title_full Exploring configurations of a European energy system within the planetary boundaries
title_fullStr Exploring configurations of a European energy system within the planetary boundaries
title_full_unstemmed Exploring configurations of a European energy system within the planetary boundaries
title_short Exploring configurations of a European energy system within the planetary boundaries
title_sort exploring configurations of a european energy system within the planetary boundaries
topic planetary boundaries
absolute environmental sustainability assessment
life cycle assessment
carrying capacities
energy system analysis
energy system modelling
url https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ade26b
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