Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates

Abstract HFC-134a is the most prevalent hydrofluorocarbon used as a replacement for ozone-depleting CFCs and HCFCs. Due to its high global warming potential, it is regulated under various European and global frameworks, underscoring the importance of tracking its emissions. Emissions derived by the...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Saurabh Annadate, Enrico Mancinelli, Barbara Gonella, Federica Moricci, Simon O’Doherty, Kieran Stanley, Dickon Young, Martin K. Vollmer, Rita Cesari, Serena Falasca, Umberto Giostra, Michela Maione, Jgor Arduini
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: SpringerOpen 2025-03-01
Series:Environmental Sciences Europe
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01081-1
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849774686697684992
author Saurabh Annadate
Enrico Mancinelli
Barbara Gonella
Federica Moricci
Simon O’Doherty
Kieran Stanley
Dickon Young
Martin K. Vollmer
Rita Cesari
Serena Falasca
Umberto Giostra
Michela Maione
Jgor Arduini
author_facet Saurabh Annadate
Enrico Mancinelli
Barbara Gonella
Federica Moricci
Simon O’Doherty
Kieran Stanley
Dickon Young
Martin K. Vollmer
Rita Cesari
Serena Falasca
Umberto Giostra
Michela Maione
Jgor Arduini
author_sort Saurabh Annadate
collection DOAJ
description Abstract HFC-134a is the most prevalent hydrofluorocarbon used as a replacement for ozone-depleting CFCs and HCFCs. Due to its high global warming potential, it is regulated under various European and global frameworks, underscoring the importance of tracking its emissions. Emissions derived by the commonly used, bottom-up, methodology are affected by a certain degree of uncertainty. The bottom-up estimates can be aided with an independent top-down estimate based on atmospheric observations combined with an atmospheric transport model. This study presents HFC-134a emissions for Europe, with a specific focus on Italy, from 2008 to 2023. The emissions were estimated using a Bayesian inversion methodology, based on atmospheric observations collected at four European stations. Our analysis reveals a slightly increasing trend in HFC-134a emissions for Italy from 2008 to 2015 of 0.17 $${\mathrm{Gg\,yr}^{-1}}$$ Gg yr - 1 , followed by a steady decrease thereafter, highlighting the effect of European regulation on fluorinated gases that came into force in 2014. We observed a reduction in HFC-134a emissions in the Po Basin inferred from the inversion method for 2020, likely due to mobility restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The observed mild seasonality in emissions may be partly attributed to higher air-conditioning activity during summer. Comparison with the Italian National Emission Inventory indicates an improvement in iterative bottom-up estimates, with the 2024 inventory emission trend post-2015 aligning closely with our inversion results. This study emphasises the need for collaboration between the two independent approaches to enhance the accuracy of emission estimates. Such cooperation is crucial to narrowing the gap in quantifying emissions of potent greenhouse gases and effectively assessing the progress of international policies and regulations.
format Article
id doaj-art-5cae59fbb18243dba1cc62eb8c485c4a
institution DOAJ
issn 2190-4715
language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher SpringerOpen
record_format Article
series Environmental Sciences Europe
spelling doaj-art-5cae59fbb18243dba1cc62eb8c485c4a2025-08-20T03:01:38ZengSpringerOpenEnvironmental Sciences Europe2190-47152025-03-0137111210.1186/s12302-025-01081-1Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimatesSaurabh Annadate0Enrico Mancinelli1Barbara Gonella2Federica Moricci3Simon O’Doherty4Kieran Stanley5Dickon Young6Martin K. Vollmer7Rita Cesari8Serena Falasca9Umberto Giostra10Michela Maione11Jgor Arduini12Department of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”Department of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA)Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA)School of Chemistry, University of BristolSchool of Chemistry, University of BristolSchool of Chemistry, University of BristolLaboratory for Air Pollution and Environmental Technology, Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and TechnologyInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research CouncilDepartment of Physics, Sapienza University of RomeDepartment of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”Department of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”Department of Pure and Applied Sciences, University of Urbino “Carlo Bo”Abstract HFC-134a is the most prevalent hydrofluorocarbon used as a replacement for ozone-depleting CFCs and HCFCs. Due to its high global warming potential, it is regulated under various European and global frameworks, underscoring the importance of tracking its emissions. Emissions derived by the commonly used, bottom-up, methodology are affected by a certain degree of uncertainty. The bottom-up estimates can be aided with an independent top-down estimate based on atmospheric observations combined with an atmospheric transport model. This study presents HFC-134a emissions for Europe, with a specific focus on Italy, from 2008 to 2023. The emissions were estimated using a Bayesian inversion methodology, based on atmospheric observations collected at four European stations. Our analysis reveals a slightly increasing trend in HFC-134a emissions for Italy from 2008 to 2015 of 0.17 $${\mathrm{Gg\,yr}^{-1}}$$ Gg yr - 1 , followed by a steady decrease thereafter, highlighting the effect of European regulation on fluorinated gases that came into force in 2014. We observed a reduction in HFC-134a emissions in the Po Basin inferred from the inversion method for 2020, likely due to mobility restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The observed mild seasonality in emissions may be partly attributed to higher air-conditioning activity during summer. Comparison with the Italian National Emission Inventory indicates an improvement in iterative bottom-up estimates, with the 2024 inventory emission trend post-2015 aligning closely with our inversion results. This study emphasises the need for collaboration between the two independent approaches to enhance the accuracy of emission estimates. Such cooperation is crucial to narrowing the gap in quantifying emissions of potent greenhouse gases and effectively assessing the progress of international policies and regulations.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01081-1Greenhouse gas emissionsInverse modellingBottom-up inventoriesEU F-gas regulation
spellingShingle Saurabh Annadate
Enrico Mancinelli
Barbara Gonella
Federica Moricci
Simon O’Doherty
Kieran Stanley
Dickon Young
Martin K. Vollmer
Rita Cesari
Serena Falasca
Umberto Giostra
Michela Maione
Jgor Arduini
Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates
Environmental Sciences Europe
Greenhouse gas emissions
Inverse modelling
Bottom-up inventories
EU F-gas regulation
title Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates
title_full Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates
title_fullStr Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates
title_full_unstemmed Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates
title_short Monitoring the impact of EU F-gas regulation on HFC-134a emissions through a comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates
title_sort monitoring the impact of eu f gas regulation on hfc 134a emissions through a comparison of top down and bottom up estimates
topic Greenhouse gas emissions
Inverse modelling
Bottom-up inventories
EU F-gas regulation
url https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-025-01081-1
work_keys_str_mv AT saurabhannadate monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT enricomancinelli monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT barbaragonella monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT federicamoricci monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT simonodoherty monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT kieranstanley monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT dickonyoung monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT martinkvollmer monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT ritacesari monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT serenafalasca monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT umbertogiostra monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT michelamaione monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates
AT jgorarduini monitoringtheimpactofeufgasregulationonhfc134aemissionsthroughacomparisonoftopdownandbottomupestimates