A robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network

Abstract This paper proposes a robust method utilizing Multi-state Fuzzy Bayesian Network (MFBN) to evaluate bridge safety risks, offering a foundation for risk control. Initially, a bridge collapse fault tree and a directed acyclic graph are constructed to analyze causal relationships. Subsequently...

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Main Authors: Zhong Cao, Weicong He, Kaihong Chen, Rui Rao, Zhaohui Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-08-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-15235-x
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author Zhong Cao
Weicong He
Kaihong Chen
Rui Rao
Zhaohui Chen
author_facet Zhong Cao
Weicong He
Kaihong Chen
Rui Rao
Zhaohui Chen
author_sort Zhong Cao
collection DOAJ
description Abstract This paper proposes a robust method utilizing Multi-state Fuzzy Bayesian Network (MFBN) to evaluate bridge safety risks, offering a foundation for risk control. Initially, a bridge collapse fault tree and a directed acyclic graph are constructed to analyze causal relationships. Subsequently, bridge nodes are categorized into three states, enhancing traditional binary states. Expert judgment ability and subjective reliability levels are considered to ensure survey data reliability, using confidence indices to establish multi-state fuzzy conditional probability tables. Lastly, the improved similarity aggregation method incorporates age as a factor to aggregate expert opinions, determining safety risk probabilities of root nodes. This approach assesses bridge safety risk levels with prior knowledge and evidence, identifying critical nodes contributing to heightened risks, aiding in the formulation of risk management strategies. Application to two urban bridges demonstrates the method’s effectiveness and robustness, positioning it as a valuable decision-making tool for bridge safety risk management.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 2045-2322
language English
publishDate 2025-08-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Scientific Reports
spelling doaj-art-5c8d30b551ff4b199948242dc91b3e102025-08-24T11:31:06ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-08-0115112010.1038/s41598-025-15235-xA robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi-state fuzzy Bayesian networkZhong Cao0Weicong He1Kaihong Chen2Rui Rao3Zhaohui Chen4School of Electronics and Communication Engineering, Guangzhou UniversitySchool of Electronics and Communication Engineering, Guangzhou UniversitySchool of Electronics and Communication Engineering, Guangzhou UniversityResearch Center for Wind Engineering and Engineering Vibration, Guangzhou UniversitySchool of Mathematics, Physics and Data Science, Chongqing University of Science and TechnologyAbstract This paper proposes a robust method utilizing Multi-state Fuzzy Bayesian Network (MFBN) to evaluate bridge safety risks, offering a foundation for risk control. Initially, a bridge collapse fault tree and a directed acyclic graph are constructed to analyze causal relationships. Subsequently, bridge nodes are categorized into three states, enhancing traditional binary states. Expert judgment ability and subjective reliability levels are considered to ensure survey data reliability, using confidence indices to establish multi-state fuzzy conditional probability tables. Lastly, the improved similarity aggregation method incorporates age as a factor to aggregate expert opinions, determining safety risk probabilities of root nodes. This approach assesses bridge safety risk levels with prior knowledge and evidence, identifying critical nodes contributing to heightened risks, aiding in the formulation of risk management strategies. Application to two urban bridges demonstrates the method’s effectiveness and robustness, positioning it as a valuable decision-making tool for bridge safety risk management.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-15235-x
spellingShingle Zhong Cao
Weicong He
Kaihong Chen
Rui Rao
Zhaohui Chen
A robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network
Scientific Reports
title A robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network
title_full A robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network
title_fullStr A robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network
title_full_unstemmed A robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network
title_short A robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi-state fuzzy Bayesian network
title_sort robust method for bridge safety risk assessment using improved multi state fuzzy bayesian network
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-15235-x
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