The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier
Abstract This paper investigates the impacts of tropical Atlantic on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability through an empirical dynamical model‐ Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By selectively including or excluding the coupling between tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific in LIM, we find...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023-04-01
|
| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101853 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1850229021915217920 |
|---|---|
| author | Yingying Zhao Yishuai Jin Antonietta Capotondi Jianping Li Daoxun Sun |
| author_facet | Yingying Zhao Yishuai Jin Antonietta Capotondi Jianping Li Daoxun Sun |
| author_sort | Yingying Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract This paper investigates the impacts of tropical Atlantic on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability through an empirical dynamical model‐ Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By selectively including or excluding the coupling between tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific in LIM, we find that the tropical Atlantic dynamics significantly improve the Eastern Pacific (EP)‐ENSO prediction and weaken the EP‐ENSO predictability barrier (PB), with the Equatorial Atlantic (EA) mode playing a more important role than the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) mode. The tropical Atlantic impacts on Central Pacific (CP)‐ENSO predictability and PB are relatively smaller. Consistent with observations, the tropical Atlantic can weaken PB in most CMIP6 models. The evolution of the tropical Atlantic optimum initial structures confirms the important influence of the EA mode on the eastern tropical Pacific. Therefore, the tropical Atlantic dynamics, especially the EA mode, should be appropriately considered to improve the prediction of EP‐ENSO and weaken the EP‐ENSO PB. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5c586674696b4e6ab54fefb6f8e9cb59 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-5c586674696b4e6ab54fefb6f8e9cb592025-08-20T02:04:21ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072023-04-01507n/an/a10.1029/2022GL101853The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability BarrierYingying Zhao0Yishuai Jin1Antonietta Capotondi2Jianping Li3Daoxun Sun4Deep‐Sea Multidisciplinary Research Center Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao) Qingdao ChinaFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and PhysicalOceanography Laboratory Ocean University of China Qingdao ChinaCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences University of Colorado Boulder CO USAFrontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory and Academy of the Future Ocean Ocean University of China Qingdao ChinaDeep‐Sea Multidisciplinary Research Center Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao) Qingdao ChinaAbstract This paper investigates the impacts of tropical Atlantic on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability through an empirical dynamical model‐ Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By selectively including or excluding the coupling between tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific in LIM, we find that the tropical Atlantic dynamics significantly improve the Eastern Pacific (EP)‐ENSO prediction and weaken the EP‐ENSO predictability barrier (PB), with the Equatorial Atlantic (EA) mode playing a more important role than the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) mode. The tropical Atlantic impacts on Central Pacific (CP)‐ENSO predictability and PB are relatively smaller. Consistent with observations, the tropical Atlantic can weaken PB in most CMIP6 models. The evolution of the tropical Atlantic optimum initial structures confirms the important influence of the EA mode on the eastern tropical Pacific. Therefore, the tropical Atlantic dynamics, especially the EA mode, should be appropriately considered to improve the prediction of EP‐ENSO and weaken the EP‐ENSO PB.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101853tropical Atlantic dynamicstropical north Atlantic modeequatorial Atlantic modespring predictability barrierENSO diversity |
| spellingShingle | Yingying Zhao Yishuai Jin Antonietta Capotondi Jianping Li Daoxun Sun The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier Geophysical Research Letters tropical Atlantic dynamics tropical north Atlantic mode equatorial Atlantic mode spring predictability barrier ENSO diversity |
| title | The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier |
| title_full | The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier |
| title_fullStr | The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier |
| title_short | The Role of Tropical Atlantic in ENSO Predictability Barrier |
| title_sort | role of tropical atlantic in enso predictability barrier |
| topic | tropical Atlantic dynamics tropical north Atlantic mode equatorial Atlantic mode spring predictability barrier ENSO diversity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101853 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yingyingzhao theroleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT yishuaijin theroleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT antoniettacapotondi theroleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT jianpingli theroleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT daoxunsun theroleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT yingyingzhao roleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT yishuaijin roleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT antoniettacapotondi roleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT jianpingli roleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier AT daoxunsun roleoftropicalatlanticinensopredictabilitybarrier |