Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa
This study explores the implications of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) on the rainfall and temperature spatial patterns over the Eastern Africa region. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) models under the SRM scenarios of G6solar and G6sulfur are evaluated against the Share...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/6/646 |
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| author | Alex Nimusiima Godwin Ayesiga Ronald Ingula Odongo Catherine Mulinde Lawrence Aribo Moses Ojara Bob Alex Ogwang |
| author_facet | Alex Nimusiima Godwin Ayesiga Ronald Ingula Odongo Catherine Mulinde Lawrence Aribo Moses Ojara Bob Alex Ogwang |
| author_sort | Alex Nimusiima |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study explores the implications of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) on the rainfall and temperature spatial patterns over the Eastern Africa region. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) models under the SRM scenarios of G6solar and G6sulfur are evaluated against the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). First, six GeoMIP models are evaluated against historical data and are found to capture the climate spatial patterns in the region fairly well but with a dry bias for all the models. Secondly, the models are run under both the SRM scenarios and the SSP scenarios for 2051–2080. Results show that G6solar SRM scenario predicts increased annual precipitation in the region compared to SSP245 but predicts reduced annual precipitation compared to SSP585 in the same period. The G6sulfur scenario predicts reduced annual precipitation compared to both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region with more reductions expected over SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. For temperature, the G6solar scenario predicts a reduced annual mean temperature compared to both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region, with more reductions in temperature against SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. However, G6sulfur shows some inconsistent results, with some models predicting increased temperatures under SRM compared to SSPs, especially for SSP245, while other models predict reduced temperatures in the same period. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5befe6900ec3468d8cba261051920c5e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-5befe6900ec3468d8cba261051920c5e2025-08-20T03:32:27ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332025-05-0116664610.3390/atmos16060646Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern AfricaAlex Nimusiima0Godwin Ayesiga1Ronald Ingula Odongo2Catherine Mulinde3Lawrence Aribo4Moses Ojara5Bob Alex Ogwang6Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, UgandaUganda Department of Meteorological Services, Ministry of Water and Environment, Kampala P.O. Box 7025, UgandaDepartment of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USADepartment of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 7062, UgandaUganda Department of Meteorological Services, Ministry of Water and Environment, Kampala P.O. Box 7025, UgandaUganda Department of Meteorological Services, Ministry of Water and Environment, Kampala P.O. Box 7025, UgandaUganda Department of Meteorological Services, Ministry of Water and Environment, Kampala P.O. Box 7025, UgandaThis study explores the implications of Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) on the rainfall and temperature spatial patterns over the Eastern Africa region. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) models under the SRM scenarios of G6solar and G6sulfur are evaluated against the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). First, six GeoMIP models are evaluated against historical data and are found to capture the climate spatial patterns in the region fairly well but with a dry bias for all the models. Secondly, the models are run under both the SRM scenarios and the SSP scenarios for 2051–2080. Results show that G6solar SRM scenario predicts increased annual precipitation in the region compared to SSP245 but predicts reduced annual precipitation compared to SSP585 in the same period. The G6sulfur scenario predicts reduced annual precipitation compared to both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region with more reductions expected over SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. For temperature, the G6solar scenario predicts a reduced annual mean temperature compared to both SSP245 and SSP585 in most parts of the region, with more reductions in temperature against SSP585 compared to SSP245 in the same period. However, G6sulfur shows some inconsistent results, with some models predicting increased temperatures under SRM compared to SSPs, especially for SSP245, while other models predict reduced temperatures in the same period.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/6/646solar radiation modificationgeoengineeringEastern Africaclimate dynamics |
| spellingShingle | Alex Nimusiima Godwin Ayesiga Ronald Ingula Odongo Catherine Mulinde Lawrence Aribo Moses Ojara Bob Alex Ogwang Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa Atmosphere solar radiation modification geoengineering Eastern Africa climate dynamics |
| title | Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa |
| title_full | Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa |
| title_fullStr | Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa |
| title_short | Implications of Solar Radiation Modification on Rainfall and Temperature Patterns over Eastern Africa |
| title_sort | implications of solar radiation modification on rainfall and temperature patterns over eastern africa |
| topic | solar radiation modification geoengineering Eastern Africa climate dynamics |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/6/646 |
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