Definition of an EU-DEMO design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertainties

A novel approach for explicitly and robustly accounting for epistemic uncertainties in plasma confinement in the 0D design of tokamaks is presented, in which the plasma safety factor at the 95th percentile flux surface, q _95 , is used to apply a design margin on confinement in terms of the H-factor...

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Main Authors: M. Coleman, H. Zohm, C. Bourdelle, F. Maviglia, A.J. Pearce, M. Siccinio, A. Spagnuolo, S. Wiesen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: IOP Publishing 2025-01-01
Series:Nuclear Fusion
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1088/1741-4326/ada6d9
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author M. Coleman
H. Zohm
C. Bourdelle
F. Maviglia
A.J. Pearce
M. Siccinio
A. Spagnuolo
S. Wiesen
author_facet M. Coleman
H. Zohm
C. Bourdelle
F. Maviglia
A.J. Pearce
M. Siccinio
A. Spagnuolo
S. Wiesen
author_sort M. Coleman
collection DOAJ
description A novel approach for explicitly and robustly accounting for epistemic uncertainties in plasma confinement in the 0D design of tokamaks is presented, in which the plasma safety factor at the 95th percentile flux surface, q _95 , is used to apply a design margin on confinement in terms of the H-factor, H . The PROCESS code is used to explore the EU-DEMO design space in terms of aspect ratio, major radius, q _95 , and net electric power, $P_{el,net}$ using the above approach. A comprehensive account of the input assumptions and underlying models used is given. We formulate a proposal for a new EU-DEMO design point which addresses some key shortcomings of the previous design point (EU-DEMO 2017 (Wenninger and Kembleton 2017 Technical Report EFDA_D_2NDSKT (EUROfusion); Siccinio et al 2022 Fusion Eng. Des. 176 113047)), in particular by the inclusion of an explicit and quantified design margin for epistemic confinement uncertainties, and a considerable reduction in divertor heat loads during re-attachment. We find that self-consistently including a size-able margin on confinement using our approach considerably reduces the potential $P_{el,net}$ of a reactor, compared with no margin. However, we argue that by doing so, the engineering design of future tokamak fusion power plants can effectively be insulated from epistemic confinement uncertainties insofar as possible, facilitating the design process.
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spelling doaj-art-5baea876c726493a86458eee7f2db0162025-08-20T02:10:38ZengIOP PublishingNuclear Fusion0029-55152025-01-0165303603910.1088/1741-4326/ada6d9Definition of an EU-DEMO design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertaintiesM. Coleman0H. Zohm1C. Bourdelle2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4096-8978F. Maviglia3A.J. Pearce4M. Siccinio5https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7870-6769A. Spagnuolo6https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8416-3349S. Wiesen7https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3696-5475EUROfusion , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, Germany; United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Culham Science Centre , Abingdon OX14 3DB, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandEUROfusion , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, GermanyEUROfusion , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, Germany; Alternative and Atomic Energies Agency, Cadarache , St. Paul-Lez-Durance F-13108, Bouches-du-Rhône, FranceEUROfusion , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, Germany; Associazone EURATOM-ENEA sulla Fusione, C. R. Frascati , Frascati 65-00044, Rome, ItalyUnited Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority, Culham Science Centre , Abingdon OX14 3DB, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern IrelandEUROfusion , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, GermanyEUROfusion , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, Germany; Karlsruhe Institute for Technology , Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen 76344, Baden-Württemberg, GermanyEUROfusion , Boltzmannstr. 2, Garching 85748, Bavaria, Germany; Dutch Institute for Fundamental Energy Research , De Zaale 20, PO Box 6336, Eindhoven 5600 HH, North Bravant, NetherlandsA novel approach for explicitly and robustly accounting for epistemic uncertainties in plasma confinement in the 0D design of tokamaks is presented, in which the plasma safety factor at the 95th percentile flux surface, q _95 , is used to apply a design margin on confinement in terms of the H-factor, H . The PROCESS code is used to explore the EU-DEMO design space in terms of aspect ratio, major radius, q _95 , and net electric power, $P_{el,net}$ using the above approach. A comprehensive account of the input assumptions and underlying models used is given. We formulate a proposal for a new EU-DEMO design point which addresses some key shortcomings of the previous design point (EU-DEMO 2017 (Wenninger and Kembleton 2017 Technical Report EFDA_D_2NDSKT (EUROfusion); Siccinio et al 2022 Fusion Eng. Des. 176 113047)), in particular by the inclusion of an explicit and quantified design margin for epistemic confinement uncertainties, and a considerable reduction in divertor heat loads during re-attachment. We find that self-consistently including a size-able margin on confinement using our approach considerably reduces the potential $P_{el,net}$ of a reactor, compared with no margin. However, we argue that by doing so, the engineering design of future tokamak fusion power plants can effectively be insulated from epistemic confinement uncertainties insofar as possible, facilitating the design process.https://doi.org/10.1088/1741-4326/ada6d9fusion reactorDEMOsystems codeuncertaintiesconfinement
spellingShingle M. Coleman
H. Zohm
C. Bourdelle
F. Maviglia
A.J. Pearce
M. Siccinio
A. Spagnuolo
S. Wiesen
Definition of an EU-DEMO design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertainties
Nuclear Fusion
fusion reactor
DEMO
systems code
uncertainties
confinement
title Definition of an EU-DEMO design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertainties
title_full Definition of an EU-DEMO design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertainties
title_fullStr Definition of an EU-DEMO design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertainties
title_full_unstemmed Definition of an EU-DEMO design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertainties
title_short Definition of an EU-DEMO design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertainties
title_sort definition of an eu demo design point robust to epistemic plasma physics uncertainties
topic fusion reactor
DEMO
systems code
uncertainties
confinement
url https://doi.org/10.1088/1741-4326/ada6d9
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