Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia
High-resolution climate change projections are required to evaluate local and regional climate change impacts. We used CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) to dynamically downscale CMIP6 GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Australia under three emissions scenarios, producing a set of 60 simulation...
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Weather and Climate Extremes |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209472400094X |
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| author | Sarah Chapman Jozef Syktus Ralph Trancoso Nathan Toombs Rohan Eccles |
| author_facet | Sarah Chapman Jozef Syktus Ralph Trancoso Nathan Toombs Rohan Eccles |
| author_sort | Sarah Chapman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | High-resolution climate change projections are required to evaluate local and regional climate change impacts. We used CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) to dynamically downscale CMIP6 GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Australia under three emissions scenarios, producing a set of 60 simulations at a 10 km resolution. Previous work has evaluated the performance of the downscaled models in the historical period. Here, we evaluate the impact of end-of-century climate change in the downscaled CMIP6-CCAM models for mean and extreme climate under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, 245 and 370). We find the changes in mean climate are in general similar in the host CMIP6 and downscaled models. For extreme temperature, we find that extreme maximum temperatures (TXx) increase by 3.4 °C, while extreme minimum temperatures (TNn) warm by 3.0 °C. Extreme precipitation generally increases in summer and decreases in winter; however, there is a large amount of inter-model variation in the location and magnitude of change. Consecutive dry days also decrease in most areas in Austral summer and increase in Austral winter. Heatwaves become more frequent and hotter by the end of the century. These results suggest a hotter, wetter Austral summer, with longer, more frequent and more intense heatwaves, and a hotter and drier Austral winter in most areas. This dataset provides useful new high-resolution information on how climate change is likely to impact Australia, which will be a valuable resource to underpin local adaptation responses to future impacts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5ace1041ef2843c69ff2f2e7ba8ac97a |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2212-0947 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
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| series | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| spelling | doaj-art-5ace1041ef2843c69ff2f2e7ba8ac97a2025-08-20T02:30:50ZengElsevierWeather and Climate Extremes2212-09472024-12-014610073310.1016/j.wace.2024.100733Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in AustraliaSarah Chapman0Jozef Syktus1Ralph Trancoso2Nathan Toombs3Rohan Eccles4Climate Projections and Services Team, Department of Energy and Climate, Queensland Government, Brisbane, Australia; The University of Queensland, School of the Environment, Brisbane, Australia; Corresponding author. Department of Energy and Climate, Queensland Government, Brisbane, Australia.The University of Queensland, School of the Environment, Brisbane, AustraliaClimate Projections and Services Team, Department of Energy and Climate, Queensland Government, Brisbane, Australia; The University of Queensland, School of the Environment, Brisbane, AustraliaClimate Projections and Services Team, Department of Energy and Climate, Queensland Government, Brisbane, AustraliaClimate Projections and Services Team, Department of Energy and Climate, Queensland Government, Brisbane, AustraliaHigh-resolution climate change projections are required to evaluate local and regional climate change impacts. We used CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) to dynamically downscale CMIP6 GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Australia under three emissions scenarios, producing a set of 60 simulations at a 10 km resolution. Previous work has evaluated the performance of the downscaled models in the historical period. Here, we evaluate the impact of end-of-century climate change in the downscaled CMIP6-CCAM models for mean and extreme climate under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, 245 and 370). We find the changes in mean climate are in general similar in the host CMIP6 and downscaled models. For extreme temperature, we find that extreme maximum temperatures (TXx) increase by 3.4 °C, while extreme minimum temperatures (TNn) warm by 3.0 °C. Extreme precipitation generally increases in summer and decreases in winter; however, there is a large amount of inter-model variation in the location and magnitude of change. Consecutive dry days also decrease in most areas in Austral summer and increase in Austral winter. Heatwaves become more frequent and hotter by the end of the century. These results suggest a hotter, wetter Austral summer, with longer, more frequent and more intense heatwaves, and a hotter and drier Austral winter in most areas. This dataset provides useful new high-resolution information on how climate change is likely to impact Australia, which will be a valuable resource to underpin local adaptation responses to future impacts.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209472400094XAustralian climateCMIP6Conformal cubic atmospheric modelDynamical downscalingHigh-resolution projectionsClimate extremes |
| spellingShingle | Sarah Chapman Jozef Syktus Ralph Trancoso Nathan Toombs Rohan Eccles Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia Weather and Climate Extremes Australian climate CMIP6 Conformal cubic atmospheric model Dynamical downscaling High-resolution projections Climate extremes |
| title | Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia |
| title_full | Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia |
| title_fullStr | Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia |
| title_short | Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia |
| title_sort | projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high resolution cmip6 simulations in australia |
| topic | Australian climate CMIP6 Conformal cubic atmospheric model Dynamical downscaling High-resolution projections Climate extremes |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221209472400094X |
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