Medium and Long Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network and Wind Velocity Differential Fitting

In order to make full use of the prior relationships among data features and improve the prediction accuracy of medium and long term wind power at wind farms, a medium and long term wind power prediction model based on graph convolution neural network (GCN), wind velocity differential fitting (DF),...

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Main Authors: Zihan CHEN, Wei TENG, Xuefeng XU, Xian DING, Yibing LIU
Format: Article
Language:zho
Published: State Grid Energy Research Institute 2023-08-01
Series:Zhongguo dianli
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202303050
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author Zihan CHEN
Wei TENG
Xuefeng XU
Xian DING
Yibing LIU
author_facet Zihan CHEN
Wei TENG
Xuefeng XU
Xian DING
Yibing LIU
author_sort Zihan CHEN
collection DOAJ
description In order to make full use of the prior relationships among data features and improve the prediction accuracy of medium and long term wind power at wind farms, a medium and long term wind power prediction model based on graph convolution neural network (GCN), wind velocity differential fitting (DF), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed. By analyzing the whole process of wind power generation, the influencing factors of wind power and the interrelation among them are explored, and the GCN model is built. The wind velocity and power utilization efficiency are fitted respectively. The wind power is calculated by combining with the wind velocity–power calculation model based on DF. The loss of the model includes three parts: power loss, wind velocity loss and power utilization efficiency loss. PSO algorithm is used to determine the appropriate weight for the three losses. The on-site examples of two wind farms show that the relative root mean square error of the wind power prediction model in the next 10 days is 11.44% and 13.09%, respectively, which has a high prediction accuracy.
format Article
id doaj-art-5a6802b9c9f843f3bcc399bc39adcf9d
institution DOAJ
issn 1004-9649
language zho
publishDate 2023-08-01
publisher State Grid Energy Research Institute
record_format Article
series Zhongguo dianli
spelling doaj-art-5a6802b9c9f843f3bcc399bc39adcf9d2025-08-20T02:47:35ZzhoState Grid Energy Research InstituteZhongguo dianli1004-96492023-08-0156109610510.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202303050zgdl-56-10-chenzihanMedium and Long Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network and Wind Velocity Differential FittingZihan CHEN0Wei TENG1Xuefeng XU2Xian DING3Yibing LIU4Key Laboratory of Power Station Energy Transfer, Conversion and System, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, ChinaKey Laboratory of Power Station Energy Transfer, Conversion and System, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, ChinaChina Green Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100020, ChinaChina Green Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100020, ChinaKey Laboratory of Power Station Energy Transfer, Conversion and System, Ministry of Education, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, ChinaIn order to make full use of the prior relationships among data features and improve the prediction accuracy of medium and long term wind power at wind farms, a medium and long term wind power prediction model based on graph convolution neural network (GCN), wind velocity differential fitting (DF), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is proposed. By analyzing the whole process of wind power generation, the influencing factors of wind power and the interrelation among them are explored, and the GCN model is built. The wind velocity and power utilization efficiency are fitted respectively. The wind power is calculated by combining with the wind velocity–power calculation model based on DF. The loss of the model includes three parts: power loss, wind velocity loss and power utilization efficiency loss. PSO algorithm is used to determine the appropriate weight for the three losses. The on-site examples of two wind farms show that the relative root mean square error of the wind power prediction model in the next 10 days is 11.44% and 13.09%, respectively, which has a high prediction accuracy.https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202303050wind power generationwind power predictiongraph convolutional neural networkwind velocity differential fittingparticle swarm optimization algorithm
spellingShingle Zihan CHEN
Wei TENG
Xuefeng XU
Xian DING
Yibing LIU
Medium and Long Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network and Wind Velocity Differential Fitting
Zhongguo dianli
wind power generation
wind power prediction
graph convolutional neural network
wind velocity differential fitting
particle swarm optimization algorithm
title Medium and Long Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network and Wind Velocity Differential Fitting
title_full Medium and Long Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network and Wind Velocity Differential Fitting
title_fullStr Medium and Long Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network and Wind Velocity Differential Fitting
title_full_unstemmed Medium and Long Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network and Wind Velocity Differential Fitting
title_short Medium and Long Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Graph Convolutional Network and Wind Velocity Differential Fitting
title_sort medium and long term wind power prediction based on graph convolutional network and wind velocity differential fitting
topic wind power generation
wind power prediction
graph convolutional neural network
wind velocity differential fitting
particle swarm optimization algorithm
url https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202303050
work_keys_str_mv AT zihanchen mediumandlongtermwindpowerpredictionbasedongraphconvolutionalnetworkandwindvelocitydifferentialfitting
AT weiteng mediumandlongtermwindpowerpredictionbasedongraphconvolutionalnetworkandwindvelocitydifferentialfitting
AT xuefengxu mediumandlongtermwindpowerpredictionbasedongraphconvolutionalnetworkandwindvelocitydifferentialfitting
AT xianding mediumandlongtermwindpowerpredictionbasedongraphconvolutionalnetworkandwindvelocitydifferentialfitting
AT yibingliu mediumandlongtermwindpowerpredictionbasedongraphconvolutionalnetworkandwindvelocitydifferentialfitting