Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China
Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a key indicator for assessing vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle balance. Xinjiang is located in an arid and ecologically fragile region in northwest China, but the current understanding of vegetation dynamics in the region is still limited. This study...
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| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2024-09-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/19/3604 |
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| author | Wenjie Zhang Xiang Zhao Hao Li Yutong Fang Wenxi Shi Siqing Zhao Yinkun Guo |
| author_facet | Wenjie Zhang Xiang Zhao Hao Li Yutong Fang Wenxi Shi Siqing Zhao Yinkun Guo |
| author_sort | Wenjie Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a key indicator for assessing vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle balance. Xinjiang is located in an arid and ecologically fragile region in northwest China, but the current understanding of vegetation dynamics in the region is still limited. This study aims to analyze Xinjiang’s NPP spatial and temporal trends, using random forest regression to quantify the extent to which climate change and human activities affect vegetation productivity. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate scenario data help assess vegetation restoration potential and future risks. Our findings indicate that (1) Xinjiang’s NPP exhibits a significant increasing trend from 2001 to 2020, with three-quarters of the region experiencing an increase, 2.64% of the area showing significant decrease (<i>p</i> < 0.05), and the Ili River Basin showing a nonsignificant decreasing trend; (2) precipitation and radiation are major drivers of NPP variations, with contribution ratios of 35.13% and 30.17%, respectively; (3) noteworthy restoration potential exists on the Tian Shan northern slope and the Irtysh River Basin, where average restoration potentials surpass 80% relative to 2020, while the Ili River Basin has the highest future risk. This study explores the factors influencing the current vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang, aiming to provide references for vegetation restoration and future risk mitigation, thereby promoting sustainable ecological development in Xinjiang. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5a30a04dbfa3415f834111b540d089fc |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2072-4292 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Remote Sensing |
| spelling | doaj-art-5a30a04dbfa3415f834111b540d089fc2025-08-20T01:47:33ZengMDPI AGRemote Sensing2072-42922024-09-011619360410.3390/rs16193604Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, ChinaWenjie Zhang0Xiang Zhao1Hao Li2Yutong Fang3Wenxi Shi4Siqing Zhao5Yinkun Guo6State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaVegetation net primary productivity (NPP) is a key indicator for assessing vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle balance. Xinjiang is located in an arid and ecologically fragile region in northwest China, but the current understanding of vegetation dynamics in the region is still limited. This study aims to analyze Xinjiang’s NPP spatial and temporal trends, using random forest regression to quantify the extent to which climate change and human activities affect vegetation productivity. CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) climate scenario data help assess vegetation restoration potential and future risks. Our findings indicate that (1) Xinjiang’s NPP exhibits a significant increasing trend from 2001 to 2020, with three-quarters of the region experiencing an increase, 2.64% of the area showing significant decrease (<i>p</i> < 0.05), and the Ili River Basin showing a nonsignificant decreasing trend; (2) precipitation and radiation are major drivers of NPP variations, with contribution ratios of 35.13% and 30.17%, respectively; (3) noteworthy restoration potential exists on the Tian Shan northern slope and the Irtysh River Basin, where average restoration potentials surpass 80% relative to 2020, while the Ili River Basin has the highest future risk. This study explores the factors influencing the current vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang, aiming to provide references for vegetation restoration and future risk mitigation, thereby promoting sustainable ecological development in Xinjiang.https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/19/3604net primary productivityXinjiangclimate changerisk assessment |
| spellingShingle | Wenjie Zhang Xiang Zhao Hao Li Yutong Fang Wenxi Shi Siqing Zhao Yinkun Guo Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China Remote Sensing net primary productivity Xinjiang climate change risk assessment |
| title | Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_full | Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_fullStr | Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_short | Dynamic Analysis and Risk Assessment of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in Xinjiang, China |
| title_sort | dynamic analysis and risk assessment of vegetation net primary productivity in xinjiang china |
| topic | net primary productivity Xinjiang climate change risk assessment |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/19/3604 |
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