Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode : an empirical analysis based on the AR-Net model
Stable egg prices in China are related to people's livelihood, and layer farmers are facing the risk of large fluctuations in egg prices. This paper verifies that the AR-Net model can predict egg futures prices better than neural network model or other universal statistical models. Based on th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2022-06-01
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| Series: | Kuwait Journal of Science |
| Online Access: | https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/19407 |
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| _version_ | 1849471155112509440 |
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| author | Chen LIU ZHAO Yuhe |
| author_facet | Chen LIU ZHAO Yuhe |
| author_sort | Chen LIU |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description |
Stable egg prices in China are related to people's livelihood, and layer farmers are facing the risk of large fluctuations in egg prices. This paper verifies that the AR-Net model can predict egg futures prices better than neural network model or other universal statistical models. Based on this result, the AR-Net model is also used to determine the insurance price and premium rates, further to evaluate price risk management effect of the "insurance + futures" mode. On this basis, we obtained several important conclusions: (1) Compared to other price prediction methods, AR-Net model is more suitable for egg futures price prediction in China. (2) China’s egg "insurance +futures" mode can conducive to stabilizing the income of layer farmers. (3) "Insurance + Futures" mode can exert better risk management results compared with traditional "insurance + futures" mode and agricultural price insurance.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-59fed17e99d54d25ad016fa170628758 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2307-4108 2307-4116 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Kuwait Journal of Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-59fed17e99d54d25ad016fa1706287582025-08-20T03:24:56ZengElsevierKuwait Journal of Science2307-41082307-41162022-06-0110.48129/kjs.splml.19407Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode : an empirical analysis based on the AR-Net modelChen LIU0ZHAO Yuhe1 College of Economics, Beijing Wuzi University.Beijing Wuzi University Stable egg prices in China are related to people's livelihood, and layer farmers are facing the risk of large fluctuations in egg prices. This paper verifies that the AR-Net model can predict egg futures prices better than neural network model or other universal statistical models. Based on this result, the AR-Net model is also used to determine the insurance price and premium rates, further to evaluate price risk management effect of the "insurance + futures" mode. On this basis, we obtained several important conclusions: (1) Compared to other price prediction methods, AR-Net model is more suitable for egg futures price prediction in China. (2) China’s egg "insurance +futures" mode can conducive to stabilizing the income of layer farmers. (3) "Insurance + Futures" mode can exert better risk management results compared with traditional "insurance + futures" mode and agricultural price insurance. https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/19407 |
| spellingShingle | Chen LIU ZHAO Yuhe Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode : an empirical analysis based on the AR-Net model Kuwait Journal of Science |
| title | Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode : an empirical analysis based on the AR-Net model |
| title_full | Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode : an empirical analysis based on the AR-Net model |
| title_fullStr | Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode : an empirical analysis based on the AR-Net model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode : an empirical analysis based on the AR-Net model |
| title_short | Price Risk Management effect on the China’s Egg "Insurance + Futures" Mode : an empirical analysis based on the AR-Net model |
| title_sort | price risk management effect on the china s egg insurance futures mode an empirical analysis based on the ar net model |
| url | https://journalskuwait.org/kjs/index.php/KJS/article/view/19407 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chenliu priceriskmanagementeffectonthechinasegginsurancefuturesmodeanempiricalanalysisbasedonthearnetmodel AT zhaoyuhe priceriskmanagementeffectonthechinasegginsurancefuturesmodeanempiricalanalysisbasedonthearnetmodel |