Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-Order and Skewed Approximations

The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian discrepancy measure used in testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order asymptotic approximations and skewed approximations for univariat...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Elena Bortolato, Francesco Bertolino, Monica Musio, Laura Ventura
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-06-01
Series:Entropy
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/27/7/657
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849246555541864448
author Elena Bortolato
Francesco Bertolino
Monica Musio
Laura Ventura
author_facet Elena Bortolato
Francesco Bertolino
Monica Musio
Laura Ventura
author_sort Elena Bortolato
collection DOAJ
description The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian discrepancy measure used in testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order asymptotic approximations and skewed approximations for univariate posterior distributions, including cases with nuisance parameters, demonstrating improved accuracy in capturing posterior shape with little additional computational cost over simple first-order approximations. For third-order approximations, connections to frequentist inference via matching priors are highlighted. Moreover, the definition of the Bayesian discrepancy measure and the proposed methodology are extended to the multivariate setting, employing tractable skew-normal posterior approximations obtained via derivative matching at the mode. Accurate multivariate approximations for the Bayesian discrepancy measure are then derived by defining credible regions based on an optimal transport map that transforms the skew-normal approximation to a standard multivariate normal distribution. The performance and practical benefits of these higher-order and skewed approximations are illustrated through two examples.
format Article
id doaj-art-59317e48593f44d8aeafaef5d1b3bf80
institution Kabale University
issn 1099-4300
language English
publishDate 2025-06-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Entropy
spelling doaj-art-59317e48593f44d8aeafaef5d1b3bf802025-08-20T03:58:27ZengMDPI AGEntropy1099-43002025-06-0127765710.3390/e27070657Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-Order and Skewed ApproximationsElena Bortolato0Francesco Bertolino1Monica Musio2Laura Ventura3Barcelona School of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 08005 Barcelona, SpainDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Cagliari, 09124 Cagliari, ItalyDepartment of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Cagliari, 09124 Cagliari, ItalyDepartment of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, 35121 Padova, ItalyThe aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian discrepancy measure used in testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order asymptotic approximations and skewed approximations for univariate posterior distributions, including cases with nuisance parameters, demonstrating improved accuracy in capturing posterior shape with little additional computational cost over simple first-order approximations. For third-order approximations, connections to frequentist inference via matching priors are highlighted. Moreover, the definition of the Bayesian discrepancy measure and the proposed methodology are extended to the multivariate setting, employing tractable skew-normal posterior approximations obtained via derivative matching at the mode. Accurate multivariate approximations for the Bayesian discrepancy measure are then derived by defining credible regions based on an optimal transport map that transforms the skew-normal approximation to a standard multivariate normal distribution. The performance and practical benefits of these higher-order and skewed approximations are illustrated through two examples.https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/27/7/657Bayesian discrepancy measurecredible regionsevidencehigher-order asymptoticsmatching priorsnuisance parameter
spellingShingle Elena Bortolato
Francesco Bertolino
Monica Musio
Laura Ventura
Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-Order and Skewed Approximations
Entropy
Bayesian discrepancy measure
credible regions
evidence
higher-order asymptotics
matching priors
nuisance parameter
title Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-Order and Skewed Approximations
title_full Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-Order and Skewed Approximations
title_fullStr Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-Order and Skewed Approximations
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-Order and Skewed Approximations
title_short Bayesian Discrepancy Measure: Higher-Order and Skewed Approximations
title_sort bayesian discrepancy measure higher order and skewed approximations
topic Bayesian discrepancy measure
credible regions
evidence
higher-order asymptotics
matching priors
nuisance parameter
url https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/27/7/657
work_keys_str_mv AT elenabortolato bayesiandiscrepancymeasurehigherorderandskewedapproximations
AT francescobertolino bayesiandiscrepancymeasurehigherorderandskewedapproximations
AT monicamusio bayesiandiscrepancymeasurehigherorderandskewedapproximations
AT lauraventura bayesiandiscrepancymeasurehigherorderandskewedapproximations