Predicting the Current and Future Habitat Distribution for an Important Fruit Pest, <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), Using an Optimized MaxEnt Model
The <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> is one of the significant borer pests that primarily damage plum, pear, and apple trees, often resulting in substantial economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest remains poorly underst...
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MDPI AG
2025-06-01
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| author | Li Huang Shichao Zuo Yiqi Huo Lizong Hu Zhengbing Wang Jiahui Zhang Jin Liu Weili Ding Keshi Ma Mingsheng Yang |
| author_facet | Li Huang Shichao Zuo Yiqi Huo Lizong Hu Zhengbing Wang Jiahui Zhang Jin Liu Weili Ding Keshi Ma Mingsheng Yang |
| author_sort | Li Huang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> is one of the significant borer pests that primarily damage plum, pear, and apple trees, often resulting in substantial economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest remains poorly understood. In this study, we simulated an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of <i>G. dimorpha</i> and identified its underlying driving factors. The results indicate that suitable habitats, under current bioclimatic conditions, are mainly distributed in eastern China, northeastern China, Korea, and Japan, covering a total of 273.5 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. The highly suitable habitats are primarily located in Korea and parts of central Japan, with a total area of 19.8 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. In future projections, the suitable area is expected to increase by 17.74% to 62.10%, and the suitable habitats are predicted to shift northward overall. In particular, there are more highly suitable habitats for <i>G. dimorpha</i> in China and Japan compared to their predominance in Korea under current climatic conditions. The bio9 and bio18 contribute 51.9% and 20.7% to the modeling, respectively, indicating that the distribution of <i>G. dimorpha</i> may be shaped mainly by the mean temperature of the driest quarter and precipitation of the warmest quarter. In summary, the distribution range predicted, particularly for regions with highly suitable habitats, poses a high risk of <i>G. dimorpha</i> outbreaks, emphasizing the priority of pest monitoring and management. Furthermore, the key bioclimatic variables identified could also provide crucial reference for pest monitoring. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2075-4450 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Insects |
| spelling | doaj-art-58b90432f74e417faff41c6de67e09cf2025-08-20T03:27:19ZengMDPI AGInsects2075-44502025-06-0116662310.3390/insects16060623Predicting the Current and Future Habitat Distribution for an Important Fruit Pest, <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), Using an Optimized MaxEnt ModelLi Huang0Shichao Zuo1Yiqi Huo2Lizong Hu3Zhengbing Wang4Jiahui Zhang5Jin Liu6Weili Ding7Keshi Ma8Mingsheng Yang9College of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaCollege of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaCollege of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaCollege of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaCollege of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaCollege of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaCollege of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaFinance Office, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaCollege of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaCollege of Life Science and Agronomy, Zhoukou Normal University, Zhoukou 466001, ChinaThe <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> is one of the significant borer pests that primarily damage plum, pear, and apple trees, often resulting in substantial economic losses in fruit production. However, the potential distribution range of this economically important pest remains poorly understood. In this study, we simulated an optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the spatiotemporal distribution pattern of <i>G. dimorpha</i> and identified its underlying driving factors. The results indicate that suitable habitats, under current bioclimatic conditions, are mainly distributed in eastern China, northeastern China, Korea, and Japan, covering a total of 273.5 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. The highly suitable habitats are primarily located in Korea and parts of central Japan, with a total area of 19.8 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. In future projections, the suitable area is expected to increase by 17.74% to 62.10%, and the suitable habitats are predicted to shift northward overall. In particular, there are more highly suitable habitats for <i>G. dimorpha</i> in China and Japan compared to their predominance in Korea under current climatic conditions. The bio9 and bio18 contribute 51.9% and 20.7% to the modeling, respectively, indicating that the distribution of <i>G. dimorpha</i> may be shaped mainly by the mean temperature of the driest quarter and precipitation of the warmest quarter. In summary, the distribution range predicted, particularly for regions with highly suitable habitats, poses a high risk of <i>G. dimorpha</i> outbreaks, emphasizing the priority of pest monitoring and management. Furthermore, the key bioclimatic variables identified could also provide crucial reference for pest monitoring.https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/6/623<i>Grapholita dimorpha</i>Tortricidaemaximum entropyclimate changespecies distribution model |
| spellingShingle | Li Huang Shichao Zuo Yiqi Huo Lizong Hu Zhengbing Wang Jiahui Zhang Jin Liu Weili Ding Keshi Ma Mingsheng Yang Predicting the Current and Future Habitat Distribution for an Important Fruit Pest, <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), Using an Optimized MaxEnt Model Insects <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Tortricidae maximum entropy climate change species distribution model |
| title | Predicting the Current and Future Habitat Distribution for an Important Fruit Pest, <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), Using an Optimized MaxEnt Model |
| title_full | Predicting the Current and Future Habitat Distribution for an Important Fruit Pest, <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), Using an Optimized MaxEnt Model |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the Current and Future Habitat Distribution for an Important Fruit Pest, <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), Using an Optimized MaxEnt Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the Current and Future Habitat Distribution for an Important Fruit Pest, <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), Using an Optimized MaxEnt Model |
| title_short | Predicting the Current and Future Habitat Distribution for an Important Fruit Pest, <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Komai (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), Using an Optimized MaxEnt Model |
| title_sort | predicting the current and future habitat distribution for an important fruit pest i grapholita dimorpha i komai lepidoptera tortricidae using an optimized maxent model |
| topic | <i>Grapholita dimorpha</i> Tortricidae maximum entropy climate change species distribution model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2075-4450/16/6/623 |
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