A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworks
Global climate change and human-induced land-use changes have threatened the stability of ecosystem service provision and intensified ecological risks. However, the ecological risk of land-use change (ERLUC) remains an emerging concept with unclear definitions and assessment methodologies. This stud...
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Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500634X |
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| author | Xuyang Zhang Wei Song He Gao |
| author_facet | Xuyang Zhang Wei Song He Gao |
| author_sort | Xuyang Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global climate change and human-induced land-use changes have threatened the stability of ecosystem service provision and intensified ecological risks. However, the ecological risk of land-use change (ERLUC) remains an emerging concept with unclear definitions and assessment methodologies. This study proposes a novel Sharpe ratiobased Ecological Risk Index (ERI) that integrates the probability of land use change occurrence with expected ecological benefits, applied to the North China Plain (NCP). Key findings include: (1) Probability of land-use change can be defined as the likelihood of future transitions, while expected ecological benefits represent potential ecosystem service gains or losses from such changes. The Sharpe ratio effectively couples these parameters for risk assessment. (2) Under three scenarios – natural development, urban expansion, and ecological conservation – the mean ERI values were 0.4718, 0.4719, and 0.4703 respectively, indicating highest overall risk in urban expansion. (3) Spatial analysis revealed similar risk gradation patterns across the plain, dominated by medium–high risk areas (20.33%), followed by medium-risk (30.21%), with relatively smaller proportions of high-risk (13.77%) and medium–low risk (14.23%) zones. (4) Future projections show escalating risks in eastern regions, particularly along urban peripheries. This framework advances ecological risk science by integrating financial risk theory into land system analysis, providing policymakers with spatial targeting tools to balance developmental priorities and ecosystem security in rapidly urbanizing regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-58904a154cd44c02bc8c85a555bc16e7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-58904a154cd44c02bc8c85a555bc16e72025-08-20T03:31:10ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2025-07-0117611370410.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113704A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworksXuyang Zhang0Wei Song1He Gao2Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; School of Earth and Environment, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001 Anhui, ChinaKey Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; Hebei Collaborative Innovation Center for Urban-Rural Integration Development, Shijiazhuang 050061, China; Corresponding author.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; School of Geosciences, Yangtze University, Wuhan 430100, ChinaGlobal climate change and human-induced land-use changes have threatened the stability of ecosystem service provision and intensified ecological risks. However, the ecological risk of land-use change (ERLUC) remains an emerging concept with unclear definitions and assessment methodologies. This study proposes a novel Sharpe ratiobased Ecological Risk Index (ERI) that integrates the probability of land use change occurrence with expected ecological benefits, applied to the North China Plain (NCP). Key findings include: (1) Probability of land-use change can be defined as the likelihood of future transitions, while expected ecological benefits represent potential ecosystem service gains or losses from such changes. The Sharpe ratio effectively couples these parameters for risk assessment. (2) Under three scenarios – natural development, urban expansion, and ecological conservation – the mean ERI values were 0.4718, 0.4719, and 0.4703 respectively, indicating highest overall risk in urban expansion. (3) Spatial analysis revealed similar risk gradation patterns across the plain, dominated by medium–high risk areas (20.33%), followed by medium-risk (30.21%), with relatively smaller proportions of high-risk (13.77%) and medium–low risk (14.23%) zones. (4) Future projections show escalating risks in eastern regions, particularly along urban peripheries. This framework advances ecological risk science by integrating financial risk theory into land system analysis, providing policymakers with spatial targeting tools to balance developmental priorities and ecosystem security in rapidly urbanizing regions.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500634XLand-use changeEcological risksEcosystem servicesSharpe ratioCA-Markov modelNorth China Plain |
| spellingShingle | Xuyang Zhang Wei Song He Gao A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworks Ecological Indicators Land-use change Ecological risks Ecosystem services Sharpe ratio CA-Markov model North China Plain |
| title | A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworks |
| title_full | A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworks |
| title_fullStr | A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworks |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworks |
| title_short | A Sharpe ratio-integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks: Within coupled disaster-economic assessment frameworks |
| title_sort | sharpe ratio integrated indicator system for land use changes ecological risks within coupled disaster economic assessment frameworks |
| topic | Land-use change Ecological risks Ecosystem services Sharpe ratio CA-Markov model North China Plain |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X2500634X |
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