COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing

The purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it difficult to become well informed about the steps that have been implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark discussion and thought. Here, we use simple stochastic simulations to evaluate different approaches taken to manage...

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Main Authors: Oliva Bendtsen Cano, Sabrina Cano Morales, Claus Bendtsen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Wiley 2020-01-01
Series:Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
Online Access:http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2041743
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author Oliva Bendtsen Cano
Sabrina Cano Morales
Claus Bendtsen
author_facet Oliva Bendtsen Cano
Sabrina Cano Morales
Claus Bendtsen
author_sort Oliva Bendtsen Cano
collection DOAJ
description The purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it difficult to become well informed about the steps that have been implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark discussion and thought. Here, we use simple stochastic simulations to evaluate different approaches taken to manage the crisis. We then compare these results with updated data of what really happened in the UK and in South Africa. The initial simulations aligned well with how the pandemic has evolved throughout five months following lockdown. The models are, as expected, not fully accurate, but exact enough to be used as a guideline to the evolution of the disease in both high- and middle-income countries. This is shown through simulations formed by an open source code, which allows evaluation of the outcomes from different intervention scenarios or conditions.
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issn 1687-708X
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publishDate 2020-01-01
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series Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
spelling doaj-art-588ecd6d71da44cf84b1aac3eae6eadd2025-08-20T02:05:23ZengWileyInterdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases1687-708X1687-70982020-01-01202010.1155/2020/20417432041743COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social DistancingOliva Bendtsen Cano0Sabrina Cano Morales1Claus Bendtsen2Stephen Perse Foundation, Cambridge, UKIndependent Researcher, Cambridge, UKIndependent Researcher, Cambridge, UKThe purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it difficult to become well informed about the steps that have been implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark discussion and thought. Here, we use simple stochastic simulations to evaluate different approaches taken to manage the crisis. We then compare these results with updated data of what really happened in the UK and in South Africa. The initial simulations aligned well with how the pandemic has evolved throughout five months following lockdown. The models are, as expected, not fully accurate, but exact enough to be used as a guideline to the evolution of the disease in both high- and middle-income countries. This is shown through simulations formed by an open source code, which allows evaluation of the outcomes from different intervention scenarios or conditions.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2041743
spellingShingle Oliva Bendtsen Cano
Sabrina Cano Morales
Claus Bendtsen
COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing
Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases
title COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing
title_full COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing
title_fullStr COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing
title_short COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing
title_sort covid 19 modelling the effects of social distancing
url http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2041743
work_keys_str_mv AT olivabendtsencano covid19modellingtheeffectsofsocialdistancing
AT sabrinacanomorales covid19modellingtheeffectsofsocialdistancing
AT clausbendtsen covid19modellingtheeffectsofsocialdistancing