COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing
The purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it difficult to become well informed about the steps that have been implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark discussion and thought. Here, we use simple stochastic simulations to evaluate different approaches taken to manage...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2041743 |
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| _version_ | 1850225365375516672 |
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| author | Oliva Bendtsen Cano Sabrina Cano Morales Claus Bendtsen |
| author_facet | Oliva Bendtsen Cano Sabrina Cano Morales Claus Bendtsen |
| author_sort | Oliva Bendtsen Cano |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it difficult to become well informed about the steps that have been implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark discussion and thought. Here, we use simple stochastic simulations to evaluate different approaches taken to manage the crisis. We then compare these results with updated data of what really happened in the UK and in South Africa. The initial simulations aligned well with how the pandemic has evolved throughout five months following lockdown. The models are, as expected, not fully accurate, but exact enough to be used as a guideline to the evolution of the disease in both high- and middle-income countries. This is shown through simulations formed by an open source code, which allows evaluation of the outcomes from different intervention scenarios or conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-588ecd6d71da44cf84b1aac3eae6eadd |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1687-708X 1687-7098 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-588ecd6d71da44cf84b1aac3eae6eadd2025-08-20T02:05:23ZengWileyInterdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases1687-708X1687-70982020-01-01202010.1155/2020/20417432041743COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social DistancingOliva Bendtsen Cano0Sabrina Cano Morales1Claus Bendtsen2Stephen Perse Foundation, Cambridge, UKIndependent Researcher, Cambridge, UKIndependent Researcher, Cambridge, UKThe purpose of this article is to reach all those who find it difficult to become well informed about the steps that have been implemented to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and to spark discussion and thought. Here, we use simple stochastic simulations to evaluate different approaches taken to manage the crisis. We then compare these results with updated data of what really happened in the UK and in South Africa. The initial simulations aligned well with how the pandemic has evolved throughout five months following lockdown. The models are, as expected, not fully accurate, but exact enough to be used as a guideline to the evolution of the disease in both high- and middle-income countries. This is shown through simulations formed by an open source code, which allows evaluation of the outcomes from different intervention scenarios or conditions.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2041743 |
| spellingShingle | Oliva Bendtsen Cano Sabrina Cano Morales Claus Bendtsen COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases |
| title | COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing |
| title_full | COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing |
| title_fullStr | COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing |
| title_short | COVID-19 Modelling: The Effects of Social Distancing |
| title_sort | covid 19 modelling the effects of social distancing |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/2041743 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT olivabendtsencano covid19modellingtheeffectsofsocialdistancing AT sabrinacanomorales covid19modellingtheeffectsofsocialdistancing AT clausbendtsen covid19modellingtheeffectsofsocialdistancing |