Analysis of the Spell of Rainy Days in Lake Urmia Basin using Markov Chain Model
In this study, the Frequency and the spell of rainy days was analyzed in Lake Uremia Basin using Markov chain model. For this purpose, the daily precipitation data of 7 synoptic stations in Lake Uremia basin were used for the period 1995- 2014. The daily precipitation data at each station were class...
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Kharazmi University
2016-12-01
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| Series: | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
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| Online Access: | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2717-en.pdf |
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| author | Khadijeh Javan |
| author_facet | Khadijeh Javan |
| author_sort | Khadijeh Javan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study, the Frequency and the spell of rainy days was analyzed in Lake Uremia Basin using Markov chain model. For this purpose, the daily precipitation data of 7 synoptic stations in Lake Uremia basin were used for the period 1995- 2014. The daily precipitation data at each station were classified into the wet and dry state and the fitness of first order Markov chain on data series was examined using Chi-square test at a significance level of 0.01 and was approved. After computing transition probability matrix, the persistent probability, average spell of dry days and rainy days and weather cycle was calculated. By calculating the frequency of 1-10 rainy, the spell of this periods and 2-5-days return period were calculated. The results show that in this study period the average of rainy days is 25% and the probability of Pdd is more than other states (Pww ، Pdw و Pwd). The average spell of rainy days in the study area was estimated at about two days. Generally, in all stations the persistent probability of wet state is more than rainy state. Estimation of frequency and spell of rainy days and 2-5-days return period show that with increasing duration, the frequency of rainy days decreases. Also with increasing duration of rainy days, their spell is reduces and return period increases. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-58244bbfaecc46e7abe825a9f1d37e73 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2228-7736 2588-5138 |
| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2016-12-01 |
| publisher | Kharazmi University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی |
| spelling | doaj-art-58244bbfaecc46e7abe825a9f1d37e732025-01-31T17:23:25ZfasKharazmi Universityتحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی2228-77362588-51382016-12-011643173193Analysis of the Spell of Rainy Days in Lake Urmia Basin using Markov Chain ModelKhadijeh Javan0 In this study, the Frequency and the spell of rainy days was analyzed in Lake Uremia Basin using Markov chain model. For this purpose, the daily precipitation data of 7 synoptic stations in Lake Uremia basin were used for the period 1995- 2014. The daily precipitation data at each station were classified into the wet and dry state and the fitness of first order Markov chain on data series was examined using Chi-square test at a significance level of 0.01 and was approved. After computing transition probability matrix, the persistent probability, average spell of dry days and rainy days and weather cycle was calculated. By calculating the frequency of 1-10 rainy, the spell of this periods and 2-5-days return period were calculated. The results show that in this study period the average of rainy days is 25% and the probability of Pdd is more than other states (Pww ، Pdw و Pwd). The average spell of rainy days in the study area was estimated at about two days. Generally, in all stations the persistent probability of wet state is more than rainy state. Estimation of frequency and spell of rainy days and 2-5-days return period show that with increasing duration, the frequency of rainy days decreases. Also with increasing duration of rainy days, their spell is reduces and return period increases.http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2717-en.pdfrainy daysprobability of occurrencemarkov chain modellake urmia basin |
| spellingShingle | Khadijeh Javan Analysis of the Spell of Rainy Days in Lake Urmia Basin using Markov Chain Model تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی rainy days probability of occurrence markov chain model lake urmia basin |
| title | Analysis of the Spell of Rainy Days in Lake Urmia Basin using Markov Chain Model |
| title_full | Analysis of the Spell of Rainy Days in Lake Urmia Basin using Markov Chain Model |
| title_fullStr | Analysis of the Spell of Rainy Days in Lake Urmia Basin using Markov Chain Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysis of the Spell of Rainy Days in Lake Urmia Basin using Markov Chain Model |
| title_short | Analysis of the Spell of Rainy Days in Lake Urmia Basin using Markov Chain Model |
| title_sort | analysis of the spell of rainy days in lake urmia basin using markov chain model |
| topic | rainy days probability of occurrence markov chain model lake urmia basin |
| url | http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2717-en.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT khadijehjavan analysisofthespellofrainydaysinlakeurmiabasinusingmarkovchainmodel |