Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing Price
Commodity housing is the most important product in the development of modern civil engineering, and it is also the frontier problem of modern engineering project management research. The progress of civil engineering in China can be seen to a great extent through the development of commercial housin...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Advances in Civil Engineering |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6672038 |
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| _version_ | 1832561425414881280 |
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| author | Jingyi Guo Junwu Wang Denghui Liu Shi Qiao Han Wu |
| author_facet | Jingyi Guo Junwu Wang Denghui Liu Shi Qiao Han Wu |
| author_sort | Jingyi Guo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Commodity housing is the most important product in the development of modern civil engineering, and it is also the frontier problem of modern engineering project management research. The progress of civil engineering in China can be seen to a great extent through the development of commercial housing. In order to solve the severe problem of rapid growth of commodity housing price in China, considering the advantages of system dynamics theory, a system dynamics model of commodity housing price is constructed. Eight subsystems, namely, housing demand, housing supply, housing price, urban population, urban economy, housing land, housing tenancy, and macro-control, are studied. Taking the relevant data of Wuhan as an example, the Vensim DSS is used for simulations. In addition, a validity test and sensitivity test are used to verify the validity and feasibility of the model, respectively. Based on the model, it is successfully predicted that the price of commercial housing in Wuhan will reach 18,207.9 yuan/m2 in 2030, which provides a more systematic method of prediction for synthesis simulation of commercial housing markets. From the perspective of the developer loan interest rate, real estate tax rate, purchase restriction, and other policies, we show that the developer loan interest rate regulation policy has the strongest effect on guiding the change in commercial housing prices in Wuhan. Generally, this study provides insight into the responses that the national government could use to control housing prices. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-580abf6304c14e4793f792b51890d756 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1687-8086 1687-8094 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Advances in Civil Engineering |
| spelling | doaj-art-580abf6304c14e4793f792b51890d7562025-02-03T01:25:00ZengWileyAdvances in Civil Engineering1687-80861687-80942021-01-01202110.1155/2021/66720386672038Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing PriceJingyi Guo0Junwu Wang1Denghui Liu2Shi Qiao3Han Wu4School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, ChinaChina Construction First Group Corporation Limited, Beijing 100161, ChinaSchool of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, ChinaCommodity housing is the most important product in the development of modern civil engineering, and it is also the frontier problem of modern engineering project management research. The progress of civil engineering in China can be seen to a great extent through the development of commercial housing. In order to solve the severe problem of rapid growth of commodity housing price in China, considering the advantages of system dynamics theory, a system dynamics model of commodity housing price is constructed. Eight subsystems, namely, housing demand, housing supply, housing price, urban population, urban economy, housing land, housing tenancy, and macro-control, are studied. Taking the relevant data of Wuhan as an example, the Vensim DSS is used for simulations. In addition, a validity test and sensitivity test are used to verify the validity and feasibility of the model, respectively. Based on the model, it is successfully predicted that the price of commercial housing in Wuhan will reach 18,207.9 yuan/m2 in 2030, which provides a more systematic method of prediction for synthesis simulation of commercial housing markets. From the perspective of the developer loan interest rate, real estate tax rate, purchase restriction, and other policies, we show that the developer loan interest rate regulation policy has the strongest effect on guiding the change in commercial housing prices in Wuhan. Generally, this study provides insight into the responses that the national government could use to control housing prices.http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6672038 |
| spellingShingle | Jingyi Guo Junwu Wang Denghui Liu Shi Qiao Han Wu Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing Price Advances in Civil Engineering |
| title | Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing Price |
| title_full | Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing Price |
| title_fullStr | Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing Price |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing Price |
| title_short | Study of a System Dynamics Model of Wuhan Commodity Housing Price |
| title_sort | study of a system dynamics model of wuhan commodity housing price |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6672038 |
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