Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.
Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2012-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0038410&type=printable |
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| author | Martin Lindegren Vasilis Dakos Joachim P Gröger Anna Gårdmark Georgs Kornilovs Saskia A Otto Christian Möllmann |
| author_facet | Martin Lindegren Vasilis Dakos Joachim P Gröger Anna Gårdmark Georgs Kornilovs Saskia A Otto Christian Möllmann |
| author_sort | Martin Lindegren |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-57b027cef42c49f4b217641e4517d890 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2012-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-57b027cef42c49f4b217641e4517d8902025-08-20T03:25:08ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032012-01-0177e3841010.1371/journal.pone.0038410Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application.Martin LindegrenVasilis DakosJoachim P GrögerAnna GårdmarkGeorgs KornilovsSaskia A OttoChristian MöllmannCritical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0038410&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Martin Lindegren Vasilis Dakos Joachim P Gröger Anna Gårdmark Georgs Kornilovs Saskia A Otto Christian Möllmann Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. PLoS ONE |
| title | Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. |
| title_full | Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. |
| title_fullStr | Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. |
| title_short | Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: a multiple method evaluation for management application. |
| title_sort | early detection of ecosystem regime shifts a multiple method evaluation for management application |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0038410&type=printable |
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