Attribution of Air Temperature Variation to the Incidence of COVID‐19
Abstract COVID‐19 incidence exhibits periodic fluctuations, and recurring waves of infection could lead to large‐scale future outbreaks. Air temperature is a key factor influencing COVID‐19 transmission, but in‐depth research on its specific mechanisms and quantitative effects remains limited. This...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116345 |
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| _version_ | 1850075279418982400 |
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| author | Rui Wang Jianping Huang Xinbo Lian Han Li Yingjie Zhao Beidou Zhang Dongliang Han |
| author_facet | Rui Wang Jianping Huang Xinbo Lian Han Li Yingjie Zhao Beidou Zhang Dongliang Han |
| author_sort | Rui Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract COVID‐19 incidence exhibits periodic fluctuations, and recurring waves of infection could lead to large‐scale future outbreaks. Air temperature is a key factor influencing COVID‐19 transmission, but in‐depth research on its specific mechanisms and quantitative effects remains limited. This study investigates temperature‐COVID‐19 relationships using 412,167 daily cases from China's 31 provinces (2020–2022). Results demonstrate that both sustained cold and rapid cooling significantly elevate transmission risks, with distinct regional thresholds: when temperatures fall below 3.15°C (North), 0.55°C (Northeast), 16.39°C (East), 9.38°C (Central), 13.39°C (Southwest), and −5.56°C (Northwest) accompanied by respective drops of >0.32, >0.67, >0.12, >2.12, >1.42, and >1.55°C, outbreak risks surge. Cold conditions directly drove 88.06% of cases, while temperature drops accounted for 59.33%. The highest relative risk of COVID‐19 incidence due to extreme low temperatures can reach 4.53. This study addresses gaps in understanding temperature‐COVID‐19 relationships and provides evidence to guide targeted epidemic control strategies during adverse weather conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-57aa7a49fec24d38896eb97effd95494 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-57aa7a49fec24d38896eb97effd954942025-08-20T02:46:20ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-07-015214n/an/a10.1029/2025GL116345Attribution of Air Temperature Variation to the Incidence of COVID‐19Rui Wang0Jianping Huang1Xinbo Lian2Han Li3Yingjie Zhao4Beidou Zhang5Dongliang Han6Collaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center for West Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou ChinaAbstract COVID‐19 incidence exhibits periodic fluctuations, and recurring waves of infection could lead to large‐scale future outbreaks. Air temperature is a key factor influencing COVID‐19 transmission, but in‐depth research on its specific mechanisms and quantitative effects remains limited. This study investigates temperature‐COVID‐19 relationships using 412,167 daily cases from China's 31 provinces (2020–2022). Results demonstrate that both sustained cold and rapid cooling significantly elevate transmission risks, with distinct regional thresholds: when temperatures fall below 3.15°C (North), 0.55°C (Northeast), 16.39°C (East), 9.38°C (Central), 13.39°C (Southwest), and −5.56°C (Northwest) accompanied by respective drops of >0.32, >0.67, >0.12, >2.12, >1.42, and >1.55°C, outbreak risks surge. Cold conditions directly drove 88.06% of cases, while temperature drops accounted for 59.33%. The highest relative risk of COVID‐19 incidence due to extreme low temperatures can reach 4.53. This study addresses gaps in understanding temperature‐COVID‐19 relationships and provides evidence to guide targeted epidemic control strategies during adverse weather conditions.https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116345COVID‐19air temperatureincidenceprevention and control strategiesDLNM |
| spellingShingle | Rui Wang Jianping Huang Xinbo Lian Han Li Yingjie Zhao Beidou Zhang Dongliang Han Attribution of Air Temperature Variation to the Incidence of COVID‐19 Geophysical Research Letters COVID‐19 air temperature incidence prevention and control strategies DLNM |
| title | Attribution of Air Temperature Variation to the Incidence of COVID‐19 |
| title_full | Attribution of Air Temperature Variation to the Incidence of COVID‐19 |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of Air Temperature Variation to the Incidence of COVID‐19 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of Air Temperature Variation to the Incidence of COVID‐19 |
| title_short | Attribution of Air Temperature Variation to the Incidence of COVID‐19 |
| title_sort | attribution of air temperature variation to the incidence of covid 19 |
| topic | COVID‐19 air temperature incidence prevention and control strategies DLNM |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116345 |
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