Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China
Trade ports are the first places where alien species invade and the source of their spread to other areas. Controlling invasions in these regions can effectively reduce invasion pressure and disrupt the spread pathways of invasive species, thereby significantly reducing their threat to local ecosyst...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-05-01
|
| Series: | Plants |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/10/1546 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849719775324798976 |
|---|---|
| author | Xu Luo Sixiao Shen Ke Liao Saiqiang Li Qinqin Pan Jiahao Ma Weiqiang Li Xiaodong Yang |
| author_facet | Xu Luo Sixiao Shen Ke Liao Saiqiang Li Qinqin Pan Jiahao Ma Weiqiang Li Xiaodong Yang |
| author_sort | Xu Luo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Trade ports are the first places where alien species invade and the source of their spread to other areas. Controlling invasions in these regions can effectively reduce invasion pressure and disrupt the spread pathways of invasive species, thereby significantly reducing their threat to local ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Based on 595 field survey plots, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Species Distribution Model (MaxEnt) were employed to analyze and predict the invasion mechanisms and future possible distribution of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Ningbo Port, China. The results indicate that the invasion of <i>S. canadensis</i> in the Ningbo Port was particularly severe, with a 67.7% occurrence rate of all sampling plots in the field survey, and a risk level classified as Grade 1. Biodiversity (<i>p</i> < 0.001) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (<i>p</i> < 0.01) significantly affect the invasiveness. Highly diverse communities could resist the invasion of alien species, which support Elton’s diversity–invasibility hypothesis. Low temperatures had a restrictive effect on the invasion of <i>S. canadensis</i>. The total suitable area continued to expand under three different climate change scenarios compared to current conditions (increased by 3.73%, 5.67%, and 3.74% by the 2070s). The total potential habitat area of <i>S. canadensis</i> reached its maximum extent (89.77%) under the medium greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2050s. Meanwhile, the medium suitable area exhibited the greatest fluctuation among the three climate scenarios. Under the low emission condition, the medium suitable area of <i>S. canadensis</i> diminished by 63.10 km<sup>2</sup>, but in the medium and high emission condition, its area expanded by 91.13 km<sup>2</sup> and 16.20 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Under future climate warming scenarios, the invasion risk of <i>S. canadensis</i> in Ningbo Port will continue to increase. The results of our study reveal the diffusion mechanisms of invasive plants at the colonization source, providing important theoretical support for invasive alien species’ initial prevention and control. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-56f10ef1897f4b39b2d879803fa0c879 |
| institution | DOAJ |
| issn | 2223-7747 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Plants |
| spelling | doaj-art-56f10ef1897f4b39b2d879803fa0c8792025-08-20T03:12:05ZengMDPI AGPlants2223-77472025-05-011410154610.3390/plants14101546Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, ChinaXu Luo0Sixiao Shen1Ke Liao2Saiqiang Li3Qinqin Pan4Jiahao Ma5Weiqiang Li6Xiaodong Yang7Ningbo University Donghai Academy, Zhejiang Ocean Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315211, ChinaNingbo University Donghai Academy, Zhejiang Ocean Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315211, ChinaNingbo University Donghai Academy, Zhejiang Ocean Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315211, ChinaNingbo University Donghai Academy, Zhejiang Ocean Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315211, ChinaNingbo University Donghai Academy, Zhejiang Ocean Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315211, ChinaNingbo University Donghai Academy, Zhejiang Ocean Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315211, ChinaNingbo University Donghai Academy, Zhejiang Ocean Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315211, ChinaNingbo University Donghai Academy, Zhejiang Ocean Development Think Tank Alliance, Ningbo 315211, ChinaTrade ports are the first places where alien species invade and the source of their spread to other areas. Controlling invasions in these regions can effectively reduce invasion pressure and disrupt the spread pathways of invasive species, thereby significantly reducing their threat to local ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Based on 595 field survey plots, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Species Distribution Model (MaxEnt) were employed to analyze and predict the invasion mechanisms and future possible distribution of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Ningbo Port, China. The results indicate that the invasion of <i>S. canadensis</i> in the Ningbo Port was particularly severe, with a 67.7% occurrence rate of all sampling plots in the field survey, and a risk level classified as Grade 1. Biodiversity (<i>p</i> < 0.001) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (<i>p</i> < 0.01) significantly affect the invasiveness. Highly diverse communities could resist the invasion of alien species, which support Elton’s diversity–invasibility hypothesis. Low temperatures had a restrictive effect on the invasion of <i>S. canadensis</i>. The total suitable area continued to expand under three different climate change scenarios compared to current conditions (increased by 3.73%, 5.67%, and 3.74% by the 2070s). The total potential habitat area of <i>S. canadensis</i> reached its maximum extent (89.77%) under the medium greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2050s. Meanwhile, the medium suitable area exhibited the greatest fluctuation among the three climate scenarios. Under the low emission condition, the medium suitable area of <i>S. canadensis</i> diminished by 63.10 km<sup>2</sup>, but in the medium and high emission condition, its area expanded by 91.13 km<sup>2</sup> and 16.20 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Under future climate warming scenarios, the invasion risk of <i>S. canadensis</i> in Ningbo Port will continue to increase. The results of our study reveal the diffusion mechanisms of invasive plants at the colonization source, providing important theoretical support for invasive alien species’ initial prevention and control.https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/10/1546invasive alien speciesdistribution patternsecological riskspecies distribution modelfuture climate scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Xu Luo Sixiao Shen Ke Liao Saiqiang Li Qinqin Pan Jiahao Ma Weiqiang Li Xiaodong Yang Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China Plants invasive alien species distribution patterns ecological risk species distribution model future climate scenarios |
| title | Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China |
| title_full | Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China |
| title_fullStr | Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China |
| title_short | Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China |
| title_sort | invasion status mechanisms and future distribution prediction of i solidago canadensis i in the trade port region a case study of ningbo port china |
| topic | invasive alien species distribution patterns ecological risk species distribution model future climate scenarios |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/10/1546 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT xuluo invasionstatusmechanismsandfuturedistributionpredictionofisolidagocanadensisiinthetradeportregionacasestudyofningboportchina AT sixiaoshen invasionstatusmechanismsandfuturedistributionpredictionofisolidagocanadensisiinthetradeportregionacasestudyofningboportchina AT keliao invasionstatusmechanismsandfuturedistributionpredictionofisolidagocanadensisiinthetradeportregionacasestudyofningboportchina AT saiqiangli invasionstatusmechanismsandfuturedistributionpredictionofisolidagocanadensisiinthetradeportregionacasestudyofningboportchina AT qinqinpan invasionstatusmechanismsandfuturedistributionpredictionofisolidagocanadensisiinthetradeportregionacasestudyofningboportchina AT jiahaoma invasionstatusmechanismsandfuturedistributionpredictionofisolidagocanadensisiinthetradeportregionacasestudyofningboportchina AT weiqiangli invasionstatusmechanismsandfuturedistributionpredictionofisolidagocanadensisiinthetradeportregionacasestudyofningboportchina AT xiaodongyang invasionstatusmechanismsandfuturedistributionpredictionofisolidagocanadensisiinthetradeportregionacasestudyofningboportchina |