Invasion Status, Mechanisms, and Future Distribution Prediction of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Trade Port Region: A Case Study of Ningbo Port, China
Trade ports are the first places where alien species invade and the source of their spread to other areas. Controlling invasions in these regions can effectively reduce invasion pressure and disrupt the spread pathways of invasive species, thereby significantly reducing their threat to local ecosyst...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Plants |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/14/10/1546 |
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| Summary: | Trade ports are the first places where alien species invade and the source of their spread to other areas. Controlling invasions in these regions can effectively reduce invasion pressure and disrupt the spread pathways of invasive species, thereby significantly reducing their threat to local ecosystems and biodiversity loss. Based on 595 field survey plots, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Species Distribution Model (MaxEnt) were employed to analyze and predict the invasion mechanisms and future possible distribution of <i>Solidago canadensis</i> in the Ningbo Port, China. The results indicate that the invasion of <i>S. canadensis</i> in the Ningbo Port was particularly severe, with a 67.7% occurrence rate of all sampling plots in the field survey, and a risk level classified as Grade 1. Biodiversity (<i>p</i> < 0.001) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (<i>p</i> < 0.01) significantly affect the invasiveness. Highly diverse communities could resist the invasion of alien species, which support Elton’s diversity–invasibility hypothesis. Low temperatures had a restrictive effect on the invasion of <i>S. canadensis</i>. The total suitable area continued to expand under three different climate change scenarios compared to current conditions (increased by 3.73%, 5.67%, and 3.74% by the 2070s). The total potential habitat area of <i>S. canadensis</i> reached its maximum extent (89.77%) under the medium greenhouse gas emission scenario in the 2050s. Meanwhile, the medium suitable area exhibited the greatest fluctuation among the three climate scenarios. Under the low emission condition, the medium suitable area of <i>S. canadensis</i> diminished by 63.10 km<sup>2</sup>, but in the medium and high emission condition, its area expanded by 91.13 km<sup>2</sup> and 16.20 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Under future climate warming scenarios, the invasion risk of <i>S. canadensis</i> in Ningbo Port will continue to increase. The results of our study reveal the diffusion mechanisms of invasive plants at the colonization source, providing important theoretical support for invasive alien species’ initial prevention and control. |
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| ISSN: | 2223-7747 |