Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread
Abstract Global climate models generally project a robust decline in Antarctic sea ice (ASI) under increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) while an ASI expansion has been observed over the recent four decades. Motivated by the apparent model‐observation discrepancy, this study investigates the in...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112323 |
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| author | Fengyun Luo Shang‐Ping Xie Jun Ying Yu‐Fan Geng Dake Chen |
| author_facet | Fengyun Luo Shang‐Ping Xie Jun Ying Yu‐Fan Geng Dake Chen |
| author_sort | Fengyun Luo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Global climate models generally project a robust decline in Antarctic sea ice (ASI) under increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) while an ASI expansion has been observed over the recent four decades. Motivated by the apparent model‐observation discrepancy, this study investigates the influences of ASI change on global warming pattern by exploiting the spread across models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results indicate a close intermodel relationship between ASI change and global sea surface warming pattern. Models with less ASI loss tend to produce a weaker warming globally, especially in the Southern Ocean, subtropical southeastern Pacific Ocean, and tropical Pacific Ocean. This extratropical teleconnection to the tropics agrees with the theory of cross‐equator energy transport. By correcting the modeled ASI change with observations, we can bring the SST warming pattern closer to observations, especially in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-56a467fccc604ed68317544832f6c623 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-56a467fccc604ed68317544832f6c6232025-01-20T13:05:57ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072025-01-01521n/an/a10.1029/2024GL112323Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel SpreadFengyun Luo0Shang‐Ping Xie1Jun Ying2Yu‐Fan Geng3Dake Chen4Ocean College Zhejiang University Zhoushan ChinaScripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USAState Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources Hangzhou ChinaLaoshan Laboratory Qingdao ChinaOcean College Zhejiang University Zhoushan ChinaAbstract Global climate models generally project a robust decline in Antarctic sea ice (ASI) under increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) while an ASI expansion has been observed over the recent four decades. Motivated by the apparent model‐observation discrepancy, this study investigates the influences of ASI change on global warming pattern by exploiting the spread across models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results indicate a close intermodel relationship between ASI change and global sea surface warming pattern. Models with less ASI loss tend to produce a weaker warming globally, especially in the Southern Ocean, subtropical southeastern Pacific Ocean, and tropical Pacific Ocean. This extratropical teleconnection to the tropics agrees with the theory of cross‐equator energy transport. By correcting the modeled ASI change with observations, we can bring the SST warming pattern closer to observations, especially in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112323climate changeSouthern Oceansea iceocean warming pattern |
| spellingShingle | Fengyun Luo Shang‐Ping Xie Jun Ying Yu‐Fan Geng Dake Chen Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread Geophysical Research Letters climate change Southern Ocean sea ice ocean warming pattern |
| title | Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread |
| title_full | Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread |
| title_short | Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread |
| title_sort | impacts of antarctic sea ice change on global warming pattern inferred from cmip6 intermodel spread |
| topic | climate change Southern Ocean sea ice ocean warming pattern |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112323 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fengyunluo impactsofantarcticseaicechangeonglobalwarmingpatterninferredfromcmip6intermodelspread AT shangpingxie impactsofantarcticseaicechangeonglobalwarmingpatterninferredfromcmip6intermodelspread AT junying impactsofantarcticseaicechangeonglobalwarmingpatterninferredfromcmip6intermodelspread AT yufangeng impactsofantarcticseaicechangeonglobalwarmingpatterninferredfromcmip6intermodelspread AT dakechen impactsofantarcticseaicechangeonglobalwarmingpatterninferredfromcmip6intermodelspread |