Impacts of Antarctic Sea Ice Change on Global Warming Pattern Inferred From CMIP6 Intermodel Spread
Abstract Global climate models generally project a robust decline in Antarctic sea ice (ASI) under increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) while an ASI expansion has been observed over the recent four decades. Motivated by the apparent model‐observation discrepancy, this study investigates the in...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112323 |
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| Summary: | Abstract Global climate models generally project a robust decline in Antarctic sea ice (ASI) under increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) while an ASI expansion has been observed over the recent four decades. Motivated by the apparent model‐observation discrepancy, this study investigates the influences of ASI change on global warming pattern by exploiting the spread across models from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results indicate a close intermodel relationship between ASI change and global sea surface warming pattern. Models with less ASI loss tend to produce a weaker warming globally, especially in the Southern Ocean, subtropical southeastern Pacific Ocean, and tropical Pacific Ocean. This extratropical teleconnection to the tropics agrees with the theory of cross‐equator energy transport. By correcting the modeled ASI change with observations, we can bring the SST warming pattern closer to observations, especially in the Southern Hemisphere and tropics. |
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| ISSN: | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |