High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios

Abstract Climate change mitigation policies lower greenhouse gas emissions and generally reduce fine particulate matter (P M 2.5) concentrations, hereby bringing health co-benefits. Yet, the spatial and distributional air quality co-benefits in Europe of such policies are not fully understood. Here,...

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Main Authors: Enrico Pisoni, Stefano Zauli-Sajani, Claudio A. Belis, Sasha Khomenko, Philippe Thunis, Corrado Motta, Rita Van Dingenen, Bertrand Bessagnet, Fabio Monforti-Ferrario, Joachim Maes, Luc Feyen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-06-01
Series:Nature Communications
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60449-2
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author Enrico Pisoni
Stefano Zauli-Sajani
Claudio A. Belis
Sasha Khomenko
Philippe Thunis
Corrado Motta
Rita Van Dingenen
Bertrand Bessagnet
Fabio Monforti-Ferrario
Joachim Maes
Luc Feyen
author_facet Enrico Pisoni
Stefano Zauli-Sajani
Claudio A. Belis
Sasha Khomenko
Philippe Thunis
Corrado Motta
Rita Van Dingenen
Bertrand Bessagnet
Fabio Monforti-Ferrario
Joachim Maes
Luc Feyen
author_sort Enrico Pisoni
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Climate change mitigation policies lower greenhouse gas emissions and generally reduce fine particulate matter (P M 2.5) concentrations, hereby bringing health co-benefits. Yet, the spatial and distributional air quality co-benefits in Europe of such policies are not fully understood. Here, We quantify premature mortality from air pollution in 1366 regions of Europe for different scenarios obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We model P M 2.5 concentrations at high spatial resolution and then combine it with population data and regional age structure and total mortality, to calculate attributable deaths. We find that the share of the European population meeting WHO (World Health Organization) guideline value for P M 2.5 could exceed 90% by 2100 under the most ambitious scenario, while less than 10% under the least ambitious one. Corresponding premature deaths in Europe would total 67,000 (95% CI: 13,000–141,000) per year by the end of the century compared to 282,000 (95% CI: 202,000–364,000).
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spelling doaj-art-55da0c8bf6924ed9ad0e4eed69c0687c2025-08-20T03:10:34ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-06-0116111110.1038/s41467-025-60449-2High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenariosEnrico Pisoni0Stefano Zauli-Sajani1Claudio A. Belis2Sasha Khomenko3Philippe Thunis4Corrado Motta5Rita Van Dingenen6Bertrand Bessagnet7Fabio Monforti-Ferrario8Joachim Maes9Luc Feyen10European Commission, Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreInstitute for Global Health (ISGlobal)European Commission, Joint Research CentreArcadia SITEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreEuropean Commission, Directorate-General for Regional and Urban PolicyEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreAbstract Climate change mitigation policies lower greenhouse gas emissions and generally reduce fine particulate matter (P M 2.5) concentrations, hereby bringing health co-benefits. Yet, the spatial and distributional air quality co-benefits in Europe of such policies are not fully understood. Here, We quantify premature mortality from air pollution in 1366 regions of Europe for different scenarios obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We model P M 2.5 concentrations at high spatial resolution and then combine it with population data and regional age structure and total mortality, to calculate attributable deaths. We find that the share of the European population meeting WHO (World Health Organization) guideline value for P M 2.5 could exceed 90% by 2100 under the most ambitious scenario, while less than 10% under the least ambitious one. Corresponding premature deaths in Europe would total 67,000 (95% CI: 13,000–141,000) per year by the end of the century compared to 282,000 (95% CI: 202,000–364,000).https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60449-2
spellingShingle Enrico Pisoni
Stefano Zauli-Sajani
Claudio A. Belis
Sasha Khomenko
Philippe Thunis
Corrado Motta
Rita Van Dingenen
Bertrand Bessagnet
Fabio Monforti-Ferrario
Joachim Maes
Luc Feyen
High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios
Nature Communications
title High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios
title_full High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios
title_fullStr High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios
title_full_unstemmed High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios
title_short High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios
title_sort high resolution assessment of air quality and health in europe under different climate mitigation scenarios
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60449-2
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