Did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in Brazil?
Research on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural r...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2024-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313945 |
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| author | Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso Eva Yamila da Silva Catela Guilherme Viegas Flávio L Pinheiro Dominik Hartmann |
| author_facet | Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso Eva Yamila da Silva Catela Guilherme Viegas Flávio L Pinheiro Dominik Hartmann |
| author_sort | Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Research on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural resources and agricultural goods, but a large share of the employment derives from services, non-tradables, and within-country manufacturing trade. Here, we use a large dataset on Brazil's formal labor market, including approximately 100 million workers and 581 industries, to reveal the patterns of export complexity, industrial complexity, and economic growth of 558 micro-regions between 2003 and 2019. Our results show that export complexity is more evenly spread than industrial complexity. Only a few-mainly developed urban places-have comparative advantages in sophisticated services. Regressions show that a region's industrial complexity is a significant predictor for 3-year growth prospects, but export complexity is not. Moreover, economic complexity in neighboring regions is significantly associated with economic growth. The results show export complexity does not appropriately depict Brazil's knowledge base and growth opportunities. Instead, promoting the sophistication of the heterogeneous regional industrial structures and development spillovers is a key to growth. This study demonstrates that industrial complexity, which accounts for all employment sectors, provides a more accurate basis for designing effective and inclusive industrial policies in emerging economies like Brazil, compared to export-based complexity. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5578edb3933f4a9e971b0699bedd43b0 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj-art-5578edb3933f4a9e971b0699bedd43b02025-08-20T02:38:51ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032024-01-011912e031394510.1371/journal.pone.0313945Did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in Brazil?Ben-Hur Francisco CardosoEva Yamila da Silva CatelaGuilherme ViegasFlávio L PinheiroDominik HartmannResearch on productive structures has shown that economic complexity conditions economic growth. However, little is known about which type of complexity, e.g., export or industrial complexity, matters more for regional economic growth in a large emerging country like Brazil. Brazil exports natural resources and agricultural goods, but a large share of the employment derives from services, non-tradables, and within-country manufacturing trade. Here, we use a large dataset on Brazil's formal labor market, including approximately 100 million workers and 581 industries, to reveal the patterns of export complexity, industrial complexity, and economic growth of 558 micro-regions between 2003 and 2019. Our results show that export complexity is more evenly spread than industrial complexity. Only a few-mainly developed urban places-have comparative advantages in sophisticated services. Regressions show that a region's industrial complexity is a significant predictor for 3-year growth prospects, but export complexity is not. Moreover, economic complexity in neighboring regions is significantly associated with economic growth. The results show export complexity does not appropriately depict Brazil's knowledge base and growth opportunities. Instead, promoting the sophistication of the heterogeneous regional industrial structures and development spillovers is a key to growth. This study demonstrates that industrial complexity, which accounts for all employment sectors, provides a more accurate basis for designing effective and inclusive industrial policies in emerging economies like Brazil, compared to export-based complexity.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313945 |
| spellingShingle | Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso Eva Yamila da Silva Catela Guilherme Viegas Flávio L Pinheiro Dominik Hartmann Did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in Brazil? PLoS ONE |
| title | Did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in Brazil? |
| title_full | Did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in Brazil? |
| title_fullStr | Did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in Brazil? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in Brazil? |
| title_short | Did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in Brazil? |
| title_sort | did industrial and export complexity drive regional economic growth in brazil |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0313945 |
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