Falciparum malaria transmission in Masvingo district, Zimbabwe: a mathematical model with varying human and mosquito populations
Introduction: Malaria significantly and disproportionately affects people`s quality of life especially the underprivileged and vulnerable. It poses a serious public health threat despite prevention and control efforts. Masvingo district is not spared, hence, the need to develop a falciparum malaria...
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| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
African Field Epidemiology Network
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Journal of Interventional Epidemiology and Public Health |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://afenet-journal.org/falciparum-malaria-transmission-in-masvingo-district-zimbabwe-a-mathematical-model-with-varying-human-and-mosquito-populations/ |
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| Summary: | Introduction: Malaria significantly and disproportionately affects people`s quality of life especially the underprivileged and vulnerable. It poses a serious public health threat despite prevention and control efforts. Masvingo district is not spared, hence, the need to develop a falciparum malaria model and identify the existence of the disease-free equilibrium, analyze its stability, and simulate the model, in the wake of the World Health Organisation Global Malaria Target on local elimination.
Methods: Deterministic, ordinary differential equation-based SEIR and SEI compartmentalization were used for dynamic human and mosquito populations, respectively. Fewer humans were infected at any given moment due to intervention efforts and there was a lower probability of transmission from a recovered compared to an infected human. The district of Masvingo was purposively chosen, and DHIS2 malaria data from January 2015 through December 2020 was used.
Results: Following parameter estimation in Microsoft Excel 2019 the disease-free equilibrium point was shown to exist with R0hv<1 indicating that it is locally asymptotically stable. It was noted that the dynamics of malaria transmission was variable, while the incidence was generally declining.
Conclusions: A falciparum malaria model was developed with dynamic human and mosquito populations incorporating recruitment rates, temporary immunity and transmission from recovered humans. The Disease-Free Equilibrium point exists and was shown to be locally asymptotically stable, hence disease will die out suggesting the district is on track to malaria elimination target. To sustain this trajectory a multi-faceted approach is required, including promoting behavior change communication, accessible rapid diagnostic tests and foster collaborations. |
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| ISSN: | 2664-2824 |