Assessing the information‐content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate
Abstract Understanding the dynamics of population recovery in threatened species requires robust longitudinal monitoring datasets. However, evidence‐based decision‐making is often impeded by variable data collection approaches, necessitating critical evaluation of restricted available baselines. The...
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| Format: | Article |
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Wiley
2024-08-01
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| Series: | Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70089 |
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| author | Samuel T. Turvey Erika Y. X. Lau Clare Duncan Heidi Ma Hui Liu |
| author_facet | Samuel T. Turvey Erika Y. X. Lau Clare Duncan Heidi Ma Hui Liu |
| author_sort | Samuel T. Turvey |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Understanding the dynamics of population recovery in threatened species requires robust longitudinal monitoring datasets. However, evidence‐based decision‐making is often impeded by variable data collection approaches, necessitating critical evaluation of restricted available baselines. The Hainan gibbon, the world's rarest primate, had possibly declined to only seven or eight individuals in 1978 at Bawangling National Nature Reserve but has experienced subsequent population growth. Past population estimates lack detailed reporting of survey effort, and multiple conflicting estimates are available, hindering assessment of gibbon recovery. We investigated all reported estimates of Bawangling gibbon population size from 1978 to 2022, to evaluate the biological signal of population trends and the extent to which noise associated with varying survey effort, reporting and estimation may mask or misrepresent any underlying signal. This longitudinal dataset demonstrates that the Bawangling population experienced a series of bottlenecks and recoveries, with three successive periods of growth interspersed by population crashes (1978–1989, 1989–2000 and 2000–2022). The rate of gibbon population recovery was progressively slower over time in each successive period of growth, and this potential decline in recovery rate following serial bottlenecks suggests that additional management strategies may be required alongside “nature‐based solutions” for this species. However, population viability analysis suggests the 1978 founder population is unlikely to have been as low as seven individuals, raising concerns for interpreting reported historical population counts and understanding the dynamics of the species' recovery. We caution against overinterpreting potential signals within “messy” conservation datasets, and we emphasise the crucial importance of standardised replicable survey methods and transparent reporting of data and effort in all future surveys of Hainan gibbons and other highly threatened species. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5519d94ad3ab413e95e1147327231e10 |
| institution | OA Journals |
| issn | 2045-7758 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| series | Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-5519d94ad3ab413e95e1147327231e102025-08-20T01:55:49ZengWileyEcology and Evolution2045-77582024-08-01148n/an/a10.1002/ece3.70089Assessing the information‐content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primateSamuel T. Turvey0Erika Y. X. Lau1Clare Duncan2Heidi Ma3Hui Liu4Institute of Zoology Zoological Society of London London UKInstitute of Zoology Zoological Society of London London UKInstitute of Zoology Zoological Society of London London UKInstitute of Zoology Zoological Society of London London UKSchool of Tropical Agriculture and Forestry Hainan University Haikou ChinaAbstract Understanding the dynamics of population recovery in threatened species requires robust longitudinal monitoring datasets. However, evidence‐based decision‐making is often impeded by variable data collection approaches, necessitating critical evaluation of restricted available baselines. The Hainan gibbon, the world's rarest primate, had possibly declined to only seven or eight individuals in 1978 at Bawangling National Nature Reserve but has experienced subsequent population growth. Past population estimates lack detailed reporting of survey effort, and multiple conflicting estimates are available, hindering assessment of gibbon recovery. We investigated all reported estimates of Bawangling gibbon population size from 1978 to 2022, to evaluate the biological signal of population trends and the extent to which noise associated with varying survey effort, reporting and estimation may mask or misrepresent any underlying signal. This longitudinal dataset demonstrates that the Bawangling population experienced a series of bottlenecks and recoveries, with three successive periods of growth interspersed by population crashes (1978–1989, 1989–2000 and 2000–2022). The rate of gibbon population recovery was progressively slower over time in each successive period of growth, and this potential decline in recovery rate following serial bottlenecks suggests that additional management strategies may be required alongside “nature‐based solutions” for this species. However, population viability analysis suggests the 1978 founder population is unlikely to have been as low as seven individuals, raising concerns for interpreting reported historical population counts and understanding the dynamics of the species' recovery. We caution against overinterpreting potential signals within “messy” conservation datasets, and we emphasise the crucial importance of standardised replicable survey methods and transparent reporting of data and effort in all future surveys of Hainan gibbons and other highly threatened species.https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70089bottleneckdata uncertaintyHainan gibbonNomascus hainanuspopulation viability analysissmall population |
| spellingShingle | Samuel T. Turvey Erika Y. X. Lau Clare Duncan Heidi Ma Hui Liu Assessing the information‐content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate Ecology and Evolution bottleneck data uncertainty Hainan gibbon Nomascus hainanus population viability analysis small population |
| title | Assessing the information‐content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate |
| title_full | Assessing the information‐content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the information‐content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the information‐content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate |
| title_short | Assessing the information‐content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world's rarest primate |
| title_sort | assessing the information content of messy data to reconstruct population recovery dynamics for the world s rarest primate |
| topic | bottleneck data uncertainty Hainan gibbon Nomascus hainanus population viability analysis small population |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70089 |
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